Forex Analysis | November 13, 2019

The market sentiment appears to be in a risk-on environment — Both the S&P and the Dow are up on the day (although, only a little). That said, price has somewhat stalled and while it’s up, it’s not super convincing. This is the same sentiment that the Maverick coaches are seeing as well, as they believe it’ll be a very slow trading week

USD [S] – This is down on the day, and has probably already made it’s move for today. That said, it was a down move, and since we’re potentially risk-on, it makes sense that this would go down. It has stalled at some support that has acted as resistance in the past, but this looks like a good currency to short against something strong — We’ll see if anything looks strong today

CAD [S] – This has stalled against some support, but it has been making lower highs and lower lows from the previous ones. I’d really like this to push through support before I’m strong short on it, but it still is showing signs of going down. Oil is also has been ranging for the last week, so that doesn’t give me much of a catalyst for what CAD may do, but I wanted to check on it

EUR [L] – This may be controversial, but EUR has been ranging for a long time and it’s currently at the bottom of that range and is failing at a level of support that’s held pretty strong. I think this will continue to range, and right now, the next direction it should go is up

GBP [N] – This is still in that high base pattern, and while today has been a down-day, it didn’t move much and is seemingly still waiting for a Brexit announcement to actually move.

JPY [S/N] – There are enough, more clear shorts, so I don’t actually want to take this short, but it is at the top of the range it’s been in since forming the low base patterns it’s currently in. This will be a great short when/if it breaks below support, so I’m going to wait for that, I think, before looking at JPY pairs. We’ll see if anything changes in the next couple of days

AUD [N] – Since the beginning of August, this has been ranging, but in an interesting pattern — Range for a couple weeks -> a little bit of movement for a couple weeks -> pullback and range -> movement for about a week, reaching the same highs as the previous bit of movement -> currently in a pullback. This could be the beginning of a range again even though it’s broken below prior lows. I don’t think I want to do much with this today

NZD [S/N] – This actually made a pretty big move up after the RBNZ meeting last night, but it stalled at the top of the range that it’s been in since the middle of September. I’m bearish because it failed and I’m neutral because of A) the fact that it’s ranging and B) the fact that there are more clear shorts. There’s another announcement coming up this afternoon, so I’ll make sure to watch a couple NZD pairs during that time to see if anything happens

CHF [N] – This has been showing signs of weakness since the middle of August, but was more in a descending triangle pattern and wasn’t breaking through support. Now, it’s recently made a new high, but failed at a previous level of resistance. I don’t love this currency’s chart, so I’m going to leave this one alone for today