Forex Analysis | November 11, 2019

USD [S] – I’m seeing similar things that my coaches saw this weekend. A couple of weeks ago, it showed signs of weakness and the beginning of a downtrend, but last week, it broke above previous highs, which were lower than the highs before that one. This was also in a risk-on environment, which usually means weakness for the USD. Today, I’m a little bearish on this because of the candle that it’s currently forming, but overall I’d say I’m neutral. If I see something today, though, I might pull the trigger

CAD [S] – Looking strictly at it’s chart, CAD is showing a bear rally pattern to me. It pulled back, and then failed at it’s MAs which are close together, and the 20 looks like it could cross under the 50 soon. If that were to happen, and price breaks below support, I’d be much more bearish, but it’s still showing signs of weakness in the short-term

EUR [N] – I guess technically, I’m more bearish on this, but I’m really not seeing a lot that I like. The most recent few candles are down, but overall this has been ranging. If something were to happen to make this move, I’ll pay attention to it, but I think I’m going to leave this alone for the most part

GBP [L] – This is still in that strong high base, but it’s made a fairly large move up today. Also, when comparing to all of the other currencies using JPY, this was the strongest over the last couple of days by far. I know we’re mostly waiting for Brexit news to trade this, but if I see a pattern arise, I’m comfortable pulling the trigger here

JPY [N] – As was mentioned in the FX room, this should be down a lot, but it’s still in a low base. It also is barely moving at all today, so I think I’m going to leave this alone

AUD [S] – Comparatively (using JPY) this has been the weakest currency over the last couple of days. In the FX room, it was mentioned that if equities were down at the beginning of the week, that this could continue it’s weakness, which has happened. For both of those reasons, I’m bearish in AUD — I just don’t know if I want to follow the FX room and pair against USD, at least not today. We’ll see what the charts say

NZD [N] – In theory, if AUD is expected to be down, so is NZD. It was also speculated in the FX room that if equities were down that NZD would be down as well. Looking at it’s basket chart, though, today’s candle is up a decent amount and it’s the 2nd strongest currency when comparing them together with JPY. That said, it’s been trading in a fairly tight range for the last 2 months, so I don’t really see signs of this going either way with any conviction. I think I’ll leave it alone

CHF [S] – This is still in that descending triangle pattern, but has yet to push through support. It’s current candle is showing signs of stalemate between buyers and sellers as well, so I’m still comfortable with this to the short side. On the other hand, comparing CHF to the other currencies, it’s actually one of the strongest over the last 2 days, which gives me a bit of pause. I’ll still look to short, but it’ll really depend on what the chart is showing