It’s now about 3:20 and I’m just starting this. I guess, since it’s so late today and the market’s already closed, there’s a chance I’ll find more accurate information. I guess that’s the hope anyway. We’ll see as the week progresses. Also, here’s a thought — since I don’t have a time frame where I want to plan my outlook, and I only want to actually trade on Tuesdays and Thursday’s, I’ll do a mid-week update on Wednesdays and see how my initial thoughts played out and if I should continue looking in the same place on Thursday or not. Going forward, if I were to trade everyday I might have to pull double-duty on Wednesdays, but that should be fine. Should be.
The S&P gapped up this morning, made a new recent high, but pushed down largely during the day. Based on how things have been going, tomorrow should be a good day. Risk-on in Forex and “Longs” in stocks/options.
The dollar, typically, has an inverse relationship with equities, and as equities have been rising over the last month, I see a similar decline in USD. Overall, though, USD has been trending upward and there haven’t been any strong reversal signs, so I’ll leave this alone for now
CAD has been pushing up for a while now, and while it had been down over the last few weeks, it’s had a couple of up-days in a row, and is stalled on the 50MA. I like it to the long side, but the more I look at it, I also see a bit of a roll-over to the downside forming over the last few weeks as well. I’m cautiously long here, I’ll see how RSW charts look
EUR looks weird, but it has been unmistakably down over the last roughly two months. There was a rally a couple of weeks ago, then price pushed down again, and today, price pushed down again after a two-day rally. I definitely see weakness in EUR’s future
GBP has been overall down, but there’s been a lot of chop there lately. Over the last couple weeks, price has been hovering around a resistance area, though, so I don’t see much breakout opportunity. That said, with today being a down-day, I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow was an up-day, so since I’m day-trading, I might take a look here long tomorrow. More as a last resort, though, if nothing else jumps out at me
I could make a case for JPY in either direction right now, so I think I’m going to leave it alone. I’ll see what the RSW meters look like, but I think I’m going to sit JPY out. The unfortunate thing is, though, that I think it is going to move, more than, say, GBP or CHF probably, but the direction is tough…
AUD had a strong up-day today, and while it’s been choppy over the last couple of months, the MA’s are starting to cross over and the RSI is pushing up — and it’s not a reversal; I could barely call the recent history a down-trend, and it’s been pushing up since early July, so I’m comfortable with this Long
Kiwi’s choppy, I’ll hold off
CHF pushed up to a fairly strong resistance area today, and largely has been ranging for a couple of weeks. CHF doesn’t tend to move much, so I’ll look here long as a last/late resort, too