Equities were strong yesterday — stronger than expected — as they pushed above the top of the range they’ve been in since mid-June. That said, by the end of the day, price reached another resistance level, and dropped, as of right now, almost 1%. It’s now sitting on top of that area that was the resistance area of the range. I’m definitely going to lean risk-off today, and especially if this convincingly moves back within the range it had been in.
USD – L/N – This is up a decent amount right now, but on the day, it’s pushed a decent amount higher (even pushed above yesterday’s high), it has just pulled back. If this is just a pullback, I’ll definitely look to take this long if it can break the day’s high again
CAD – N – This is down, but still sitting right on top of that resistance. I’ll continue to hold off here
EUR – N – This has pushed both higher and lower on the day, and is currently sitting at it’s open. It’s still within the middle of it’s range, but couldn’t get higher than yesterday’s highs, so I don’t want to take this long (unless it breaks out of yesterday’s highs), and it’s rallied quite a bit off of the lows, and I don’t really see any short opportunity. I’ll hold off here
Today’s Pairs
If Equities Fall
AUD/USD – Short
AUD/CHF – Short
If Equities Rise
AUD/JPY – Long
NZD/JPY – Long
GBP – N – This is interesting and I’m going to keep my eye on it, but I’m not ready to actually trade it. Yesterday, this appeared to be forming a bear rally, but it has spiked today, and looks more like a reverse head-and-shoulders. If this can push up to break out of that level that’s acting as both support and resistance, this could have a good run-up, but I’d need a tradable pattern near those levels which is why I’m only monitoring right now — Keep an eye on this one in case it manages to push high enough to break out (closer to +.73%)
JPY – N – Despite equity futures being weak, this is also weak. This barely pushed out of some support yesterday, and while it’s weak today, it hasn’t even gotten to yesterday’s lows. Regardless of that, I don’t want to short this on a risk-on day, so I’ll leave it alone. If equities open and begin to rally, though, this is something I’d entertain. I’ll try to build that in — Revisit if equities rally
AUD – S/L/N – This is down, as expected, but at this point, it’s in a weird place. Price got to around yesterday’s lows, maybe a little lower, but then rallied a decent amount. Even if this were to push through this level of support, this based so long over the end of June, that there are quite a few places that I believe this could stall at. I’ll take a look at individual charts, just in case things look better, but this might be a situation where I only trade it if equities rally — Look at this to the short side, in case equities remain weak, but be open to taking this long, too, if they bounce after gapping-down
NZD – L/N – This is strong despite the weakness in equities, plus it’s broke out above that upper trend-line, and is holding on to that breakout move. I don’t think I’ll take this long in a risk-off scenario, but if equities spike, I’ll definitely be looking to take this long — If equities rally, look to take this long
CHF – L/N – While it closed near the lows, this was up yesterday despite strength in equities. Today, with weakness, they’re up again, but still within yesterday’s candle. This is another scenario, similar to AUD’s, where it based for so long that there are multiple resistance levels above it’s breakout area. Since this didn’t go down much when it “should have”, that speaks a lot for it’s strength, so I’ll glance at individual charts, but I only want to entertain this on A) a breakout of yesterday’s highs and B) continued weakness in equities. We’ll see