I think I’m just doing this to do something. I hope it works out, but ultimately, I just hope that it triggers so I have something to write about. It’s not a great position to be in, but here I am.

I, as with all of the trades that I make, like the movement here. I’m doing something a little different, though. I’m setting a limit order to short this at the top of this small range since price is currently pushing up a bit. With the limit entry, and my stop being above the next key area to the upside, I’ve got a nice 3 R:R.

Entry – 164.408

I noticed this pattern first on the 4 hour chart, and am ultimately setting my entry on the hourly. I like the key areas and the R:R, so I set it. Hopefully it works out.

Exit – 164.6

It didn’t. It took a little bit to trigger, but I looked at the chart to see how it was moving and as I was looking price shot up and triggered my entry and got within a couple pips of my stop within a couple seconds. There was a bit of a pullback from there — only for a couple minutes though — before price pushed up again and triggered the exit.

From there, price has pushed down and is sitting on my entry right now. I considered shorting it again, but I don’t want to chase or “revenge trade”.

I’ll leave the lines for now, so we’ll see how it goes in the coming hours; but I’m done for now. Like I said, I did it to do something, and I’ve got a decent plan for the next few trading days. I guess building a factory is satisfying/fulfilling enough.

Thanks for reading. Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s trade and/or if you were able to capitalize on movement in this pair. And stay tuned for more trades, I’ve got some exciting plans for the future.

The post EUR/JPY Short Forex Trade | April 10, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Full disclosure, I took this trade on March 28th, but I didn’t take notes about it right away — only screenshots. Today’s 4/3, so I’m analyzing this trade in hindsight.

Starting on the 4 hour chart, price made a peak a couple of days prior, but pulled back over the next few days. After about 3 days of pulling back, price pushed up a bit and moved sideways. On the day I took this trade, price had made another push down, and was seemingly stalling at the key area that was formed after that first 3-day pullback.

Price appeared to be struggling to push through that level, and the most-recently closed candle had a long lower wick. It looked like strength was coming back in to this pair.

Dropping down to the 15 minute chart, there was a pretty clean pullback that had just formed, so I set a long entry order.

Entry – 163.541

The pullback completed fairly quickly, and only about 6 minutes after setting the order, price pushed up enough to trigger the entry in to the trade.

Exit – 163.38

Price looked strong initially. It gained close to 5 pips (~.5R) over the next 5 minutes, but immediately started dropping from there. After only another 15 minutes, price had pushed down enough to trigger my exit for a full loss.

On the 4 hour chart, price had been strong overall, and while there had been some weakness over the week prior to this trade, that weakness appeared to be ending when I got to this chart. Price stalled at some support and while the MAs had touched, they hadn’t crossed over yet. On top of that, RSI was around 50 (though, technically, it was below that line and sloping down).

On the 15 minute chart, the faster MA was starting to slope up, and RSI was above 50, and there was a pretty clear bull-pullback. While there were some conflicting signals, overall, a lot of evidence pointed toward strength. On top of that, the pattern I traded directly around suggested strength.

Conclusion

I, once again, am feeling at a loss. I find these setups that look relatively great, but they don’t work out… It’s frustrating. I’m not in the prediction business, though, and I think I’m still getting hung up on that. I’m in the probabilities business. I need to take a larger amount of trades with great setups so I can reap the rewards of the ones that do break.

I’m tired of saying the same things, though, and not being better. Somethings gotta change.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments if you have any suggestions, and stay tuned for more trades.

The post *Shrug Emoji* | EUR/JPY Long Forex Trade | March 28, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

First of all, I need to make sure that I’m logged in to Oanda on my phone. I’m doing another manual OCO order, so I’ll to cancel one order when the other triggers, but I’m going out tonight. It’s dangerous, but I’m taking a stab at it.

Price looked to be rolling to the upside, but that was after a pretty sharp down-move. Price could be retesting here before it heads to the downside, or it could be regaining the strength it seemed to have for the month prior to the drop. There’s been a pretty tight 4 hour base, so I put both a buy and a sell order around the base; with the long entry being my short stop and vice versa.

Like I said, I’m going to be doing my best to keep a close eye on this one. Maybe I’ll set a recurring timer or something on my watch, something to remind me to check periodically incase the notifications don’t come through. We’ll see. For now, the orders are out and fingers crossed it works out well.

Entry – 164.011

4:22 pm

Freaking slippage. The short order filled, but it filled about 3 pips below where I  wanted to; and on top of that, on the chart the candle didn’t even push to that level. Didn’t even do so enough to trigger the alert on the line I drew. And yet, the order still filled. Below that. Oh well, that’s slippage that’s trading. It looks weak; hopefully I made the right call.

After my entry triggered, price did eventually actually push through my entry price, but not very far. About 5 pips of profit is all this got before it started rallying. I kept an eye on my phone throughout the night; ensuing I was ready when/if I needed to make a move, but I never got any notifications.

I checked the chart one more time before I wound down for the night and saw that price was sitting just above my entry. Not great, but still had the potential to push down.

Exit – 164.251

This morning I woke up and didn’t see any notifications, so I was hopeful. I checked the chart to discover that price had in fact pushed decently through my stop loss.

Since I didn’t get the notification, I panicked — wondering if I accidentally cancelled my stop when I canceled the buy order. But that wasn’t the case. My stop was hit normally for a full loss; and I didn’t accidentally lose a lot more than I originally planned.

That was a minor sigh of relief in an overall disappointing trade. I didn’t really have a plan, or really a great outlook. I saw something and thought it had the potential to break in either direction; and it turned out to not break at all. Can’t even say I mistimed this one.

Conclusion

I don’t hate the process I’ve been in of simply looking at charts and putting out orders where I see fit; rather than doing a full pre-trade analysis. I just need to tweak it a little bit. I’m going to start earlier, and I’m going to take a few trades in a practice account.

I don’t start playing basketball without warming up and stretching and I don’t play golf without hitting the range first (or at the very least taking a couple practice swings), and I need to approach trading the same way. Knock the rust off each morning, then proceed once I’m warm and in the zone.

I’m still experimenting with time-frames; and I think if I’m trading before the US market opens and only plan to trade a couple hours into it (and be completely done when I’m done, rather than holding while I do other things and hope) then I think I want to focus on the 5 min. chart. I’ve had some problems with it later in the day, hopefully things work out if I start earlier.

Thanks for reading! Stay tuned to see how my new process plays out, and if I can overcome the struggles I’ve been having for a while. And if you’ve got any advice or words of encouragement, let me know in the comments!

The post Another OCO Order | EUR/JPY Short Forex Trade | March 25, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Once again, I’m simply looking through charts and putting out orders where I like the patterns. GBP/JPY is the first thing I like — price has been down for the last few days overall, but since last Friday, price has rolled to the upside. Looking this morning, I see a bit of a base/pullback that’s formed after breaking some resistance back to the upside, so I set my orders around that price action.

My R:R is 1.8, so a little less than 2. But I still like the pattern, so I’m leaving the order. We’ll see how it goes.

Entry – 191.35

A little over 10 minutes after setting the order, price pushed up and triggered my entry.

Price only pushed a little in my favor at first, but made another pullback. That pullback wasn’t sustained, though, and after 2 candles, price pushed back up. That upward move eventually caused price to hit 1R, and I was able to move my stop to break even.

Exit – 191.378

There was still a little strength after that, and I was actually able to move my stop one “SAR” dot above my entry. That was the highest I was able to get it, though, before price reversed enough to hit it. It wasn’t big, but a definite profit with this trade.

It’s better than a loss, for sure. I need to focus on the positives. But at the same time, my wins need to be bigger. I’m planning on changing up my trading habits a bit; so hopefully soon the big wins will come. Until then, .

In the interest of full disclosure, while looking through the numbers for the March 25th long trade, I discovered a Short trade in this same pair from March 21st. I looked through my notes, and I can’t find any mention of this trade anywhere. I don’t remember it either. I have no idea how it slipped through the cracks. This is very unlike me, and I don’t know how it happened. I can not make these types of mistakes…

Oh well, looks like it was maybe the break of the “neck” of a double-top that I was playing. I don’t see any specific patterns, especially given how high my stop was. Price made a small push in my favor and apparently that was enough for me to move my stop to break even already. Closed at the open for a break even trade.

Thanks for reading and staying through the ‘bonus trade’. Leave a comment letting me know your strategies of recording your trades, and if you’ve every completely overlooked one like this. And stay tuned for more trades!

The post Small Gains | GBP/JPY Long Forex Trade | March 25, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Once again, I’m not really doing an analysis and am instead just looking through charts and putting out orders where I see fit. The first thing I see this morning is actually the first chart that I looked at. It’s Euro-Dollar, and it looks pretty bearish. This morning, price has been on a decent rally (looking at the 15 minute chart) but if I zoom out to the 4 hour, the rally doesn’t look that strong and looks like it’s well within the overall bearish pattern.

That said, though, there does appear to be a bit more upside here, so I put in a sell limit order at the lows of the key area  I’m trading around and my stop at the highs. I’ve said in the past that I want to try this type of trade more often, so I’m glad I’m giving it a shot here.

Rather than waiting for the break into the direction I’m trading (and thus decreasing my profit potential because my entries are closer to my target), I’m trying to get in at the initial retest of the previous key area. If price breaks that key area meaningfully, I have my stop at the highs of that range. But if it’s a simple retest, I want to be in earlier rather than later of course.

On top of that, I’m still playing the probabilities. I just think, regardless of the difference in the probabilities of this working out vs waiting for the break, this strategy offers me much better R:Rs. And, truthfully, I don’t know if this strategy has less of a probability to work out than waiting for the break. I shouldn’t be afraid of this type of trade (like I am sometimes) and I should seek it out more often. No matter what happens with this one.

The order’s out there, though, and price is approaching my entry, so we’ll see what happens.

Entry – 1.08601

It didn’t take long. Only a couple minutes after typing the above passed when I got triggered in to this trade. Now we wait and see.

Exit – 1.087

After triggering my entry, price moved sideways for a bit, then made a push in my favor. That push only got to about 60% of 1R, though, so I didn’t move my stop.

That was the lowest price got, and from there rallied up close to my stop. It didn’t trigger right away, price hovered between my entry and stop for the rest of the day, until about 10pm when it finally pushed up enough to hit my stop loss.

IDK what to do. Overnight (only a couple hours after hitting my stop), price ultimately pushed down hard and hit my target. I was just early again. I have to take it more seriously, I need to be more consistent, and I think I need to start earlier each morning. I’m not sure how that’s going to work on WeWork days (I don’t want to start trading; stop for an hour to get ready and leave and get to the office just to pick it back up — I want to stay in the moment), but I kind of want to start trading before 7:30. Maybe get a few practice trades in just to get the ball rolling, then dive in to charts and trade.

Not sure how, though, but I’m continuing to push. Something’s gotta give.

Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more trades.

The post Early Entry With a Limit Order | EUR/USD Short Forex Trade | March 19, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

A lot of the JPY pairs are moving pretty strong right now, but I don’t see any great entry points. I could do a market order on some of them, and I considered it, but ultimately decided against it. When I got to the Franc-Yen chart, though, things looked promising.

Price was pushing up like it was in the other JPY pairs, but this one was on a bit of a pullback. It was only 1 candle, on the 15 minute chart; but that’s enough for me right now with everything moving.

Zooming out to the 4 hour chart; there’s a bit of resistance above my entry where, if I don’t even put my target at the highs, I still have a 1.5 R:R. I kept that as my target and put in an order with a .75% position size.

Entry – 169.83

Price slowly and steadily pushed up — which maybe could’ve been a sign to cancel the order and try again later? As quickly as the other Yen pairs were moving, I could make the argument that I should’ve been wary of this when it didn’t break as fast. Price never dropped below my stop, though, so I could also argue that it was fine to leave the stop as is. Either way, I ultimately left the order alone and around 11:30, I got the notification that it triggered.

Exit – 169.84

Over the next 3 candles, price made a relatively strong push up and quickly hit 1R. I moved my stop to break even, and price managed to push a little further in profit. From there, though, price reversed — nearly as quickly — and hit my stop for a break-even trade.

Once again, after hovering just above my entry for a few hours, price made a push in my favor and eventually hit my target. Early again.

Maybe I should take some comfort in the fact that I’m not really getting these plays wrong; I’m simply mistiming them. I feel like, at this point in my career, I should be way beyond that. But at the same time; based on my performance, I’m not. I need to not worry about how I feel I should be doing, and just continue to focus on the process of improving.

Anyway, thanks for coming back. I know this isn’t the most exciting time in my trading right now; but continue slogging with me. We’ll reap the rewards soon!

The post Can’t Go Broke Making a Profit (I Guess) | CHF/JPY Long Forex Trade | March 19, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

I decided that I could still put out two separate orders, and then manually cancel one of them when the other triggers. It takes more attention, but it’s more than doable. This is the first trade where I’m implementing this strategy. I also saw a bearish move in Pound-Dollar that I tried to capitalize on. Read on to see how they played out.

I’m having difficulties getting excited about trading and have been slacking off quite a bit. To try to remedy this, I’m just diving in today. I’m not doing any analysis, I’m just looking through charts and putting out orders where I see fit.

The first place is in AUD/JPY, and originally, I thought to do a manual OCO order. It might be the move, too, since as I’ve been typing this, price has been dropping.

That’s neither here nor there, though. Price hit a low yesterday and has been pushing up this morning. Price stalled for a bit overnight, but pushed up through the resistance area this morning. When I got to the chart, price was pulling back a little and seemingly retesting the resistance area that was just broken.

I  put an entry order to go long if this breaks back above the highs before the pullback, with my stop at that resistance/key area. My R:R is only 1.5, but that’s going to have to be okay for today. When I was trading more successfully, I was looking for a 1.5 minimum.. I went away from that because I wanted the bigger wins, but maybe it’s something I think about implementing in my plan. We’ll see how the next few trades go.

I’m considering also putting in a short order here, still. We’ll see. I see a couple areas of support where I could put an entry order — but the “best” one is pretty far below current price. I might just let my current order ride and adjust it if price starts to hover around one of those entry areas. For now, though, we’ll see how the long play works out.

Price was dropping, so I did it. I put out a short order in the same pair. I’m going to keep an eye on them and cancel the one that doesn’t trigger.

Entry – 97.329

As the day went on and I watched this chart move, I remained confident in my plan. Price rallied back up to near my stop level — so if this was bearish, it was forming a head-and-shoulders; and if it was bullish, it was a deeper pullback than I expected. I wasn’t at the charts, so around 8:00pm when it triggered, I saw the notification on my phone.

I opened my laptop to take a look, and price pushed through the support area pretty strong, and was heading down. Pretty quickly, I was in profit a couple of pips. I monitored for a little bit, but when price started to rally a bit (back to my entry), I decided I’d just let it ride and not stress myself over it. I set an alert for 1R and put the computer away.

Exit – 97.55

I was in bed falling asleep when I got the notification that my stop-loss had been triggered. Those couple of pips of profit are the furthest down this pushed — apparently the underlying pressure was bullish not bearish — and from there price ran to the upside.

What’s worse, as of right now (11:20am the next day) price is hovering around what would be 1R if my long trade had been the one that triggered first.

IDK. Should I have left the long trade open? Looking now, there was a huge, outsized spike a couple hours before the trade. Maybe I should’ve paid more attention to that? I feel like every time I do a bit more research and try to learn something new to add to my toolkit, I read things that I already do. It’s gotta be mental. I think about trading the wrong way, and I need something to “click” or have that “a-ha” moment that will bring more consistency.

Glancing through charts on the hourly timeframe, I came across this that looks really good. Price has been pushing down this week, and last night through this morning, price bottomed a bit and rallied. That rally reached a resistance area that was created during this overall drop, and price started to push down from there.

This looks like a great bearish rally/retest pattern to me, so I put in an entry order. The R:R isn’t quite 2, but it’s close, so I’m going to let it ride. Here’s hoping it works out.

Entry – 1.27729

It took a little while — almost an hour exactly — but eventually price pushed down enough to trigger my entry. Now we see how it plays out.

Exit – 1.2792

Price never really did much for me. Almost immediately after hitting my entry, price started to rally. And after another hour-and-a-half, price hit my stop loss. This was a pretty discouraging one, the bear rally looked clean and I thought the target was fully in play. I guess I was just wrong. Even as I type this (around 1:30 the next day) price just hovered around my stop level all night last night and made a small push up this morning.

Like I mentioned, though, I’m trying to change my mindset around trading and I think taking this trade was a good step in that direction. That’s something. This trading competition is helping, too, as I’m able to trade with no risk, but there’s still stakes so I want to do well. I hope to come to some conclusions while doing this that I can take into my every day trading. We’ll see.

Baby steps…. I guess… Feels like it’s been too long for that, but not much more I can do at this juncture. On the bright side, the portfolio continues to grow, and I’m up in this trading competition (even though that’s just from holding Bitcoin… still up). I need better habits, and there’s been some progress with that. Just keep swimming.

Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s trade and if you were able to capitalize on any Aussie-Yen movement. Any advice you want to leave in the comments might be helpful as well . Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more trades and analysis!

The post First Manual OCO Order | AUD/JPY & GBP/USD Short Forex Trades | March 12, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

I started this blog because I wanted to share the ups and downs of trading, and so I want to be honest. And honestly, I’ve  been on the struggle-bus over the last couple of weeks, and I need to get off of it. I guess my last trade was more discouraging than I originally thought. I say it all the time, though: I can’t go back. And I can’t do nothing, so I need to get back on the horse. Here’s to that.

I made it to WeWork again this morning, which is both positive and negative. It’s positive because I got out of the house and this place is more conducive to work than home is. But it’s negative because I can’t seem to get here and settled before 8:30 — really not even before 9.

I try to remind myself that the time that I start my day is less important, but I still don’t feel good about it. All I can do is dive in and hope for the best, though. So without further ado, let’s dive in. I sorted all of my pairs by volume and I’ve pulled out 5 already, hopefully I can find some great opportunities.

EUR/JPY – Long

Starting on the 4 hour chart, price has remained strong over the past week or so, but has pulled back a bit at the beginning of this week. That pullback has reached the rising 20MA, which is also around the highs of a small key area that formed last week. If the strength is to remain, I could see this being where price starts to head back to the upside.

Price was pushing up as I was typing that, so I ran the numbers. I dropped down to the 15 minute chart, and saw a period of sidways movement that looked like it offered a good entry and stop area. There was, granted, a lot of whipsawing in that base, but it was decidedly sideways and price was making a strong push up.

I initially tripled my risk, but didn’t like that target; so I zoomed back out to the 4h chart and picked a target there. That target offered me a 1.9 R:R, and I almost pulled the trigger. I hesitated, though, because this is the first thing I see today, and the first time I’m really doing an analysis in a week or so. I don’t want to make a dumb move because I’m itching to get back in to it.

The trade doesn’t look bad and the numbers make sense, but I just don’t want to be too overzealous. I think I’ll move on and look at the other charts, and plan to revisit this later to see how it’s been moving.

GBP/AUD – Long

I pulled this out because price seems to be rolling to the upside, and might be ready to break today/this week. After the “roll” price peaked, then pulled back roughly to the 20 MA, which has recently crossed above the 50. From there, price has made another push up, and is now roughly at a key area that’s held up going back to the end of January.

This is a tough place to look for entries. Price has pushed through this level a couple of times (sometimes strongly, sometimes not as much), but has continually pulled back to within this longer-term range. I could see this having more strength in the near future, but from a trading perspective, it’s tough. I don’t see a great entry point (one that’s not just below another strong resistance area) that would offer me a good enough R:R, so I’m going to just hold off.

AUD/JPY – Long

This has been up since the beginning of the month, but it peaked last Thursday and has been on a bit of a pullback from there. That pullback has seemingly bottomed out this week — it’s lows being just below the 50 MA — and could be pushing back up.

Unfortunately, even dropping down to lower time-frame charts, I’m not really seeing an entry pattern that I love. On top of that, there’s some very close key areas just outside of the day’s highs. I don’t see a clean entry or stop here on the lower time-frames, so I’m going to hold off. I might put in an order here based on the 4h/daily chart, because I believe in the overall strength; it’s just hard to find an entry/stop/target that’ll offer me a good R:R. The only place I can see one is the daily chart, and that would probably mean I’m holding all week.

I’m going to move on for now, and revisit if I don’t end up liking anything else.

EUR/AUD – Long

This is interesting this morning. Actually, I don’t think I like it. Since the beginning of the month (and a bit going further back, but it’s a mess prior to February), this has largely been in a 150 pip range; sometimes swinging fully withing those 150 pips, and sometimes being in a tight range.

It was in one of those tight ranges (around the lows of the overall range) over the last week or so, but yesterday price made a really strong spike and pushed up to (technically a little bit through) the highs of the range. From there, price made a somewhat sharp pullback, but that pullback was only about 1/3 of yesterday’s up-move.

This looks like it could be a great bull-pullback to trade in to, but the more I look at it, the more it gives me pause. Over the last month+, price has failed once it got to that level, even if it pushed a little outside of the range. Overall, it does feel like there’s underlying strength here, but it could just as easily fake me out. I think I’ll set an alert here, and consider trading this if the alert is hit.

GBP/CAD – Long

Well, this would’ve been great. If I was able to find this when price got to it’s 20 MA (and, of course, actually like the numbers and pull the trigger) I’d be sitting pretty right now. I didn’t, though, and now everything looks extended. I’ll just leave this alone for today and revisit tomorrow/maybe later today if I decide to do an afternoon trading sesh.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis — if you have any feedback or questions, feel free to use the comments for that too. Don’t forget to check back often for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | February 27, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Two days in a row this had candles with long lower wicks and small bodies near the highs; occurring near a strong resistance area. On a daily chart. With an entry above the highs of the resistance area, and a stop below the bodies of the last 2 candles, I’ve got a 50 pip risk.

Based on my initial target, I had a 2 R:R, and I can even find a reasonable target that offers a 4. there’s not a pattern per-se that I’m trading in to, just a couple long lower wicks that suggest the buyers are in control here.

It’s the daily chart, so I’m probably going to hold overnight, but we’ll see. I’ll also cancel the order if price reverses. Also, since today’s Thursday, if I do hold overnight, I’ll have to make sure I close this trade before the close of the market tomorrow. We’ll see what happens.

Price was hovering around that breakout area, and was in a bit of a bull-pullback/base on the hourly chart. Looking at that, my initial entry was incredibly far away from current price, far enough that I don’t feel like it would have hit today — and even if it did, I’d be at risk of holding over the weekend.

I ran numbers around the current price action, using my prior entry as a target, and I’ve still got an above 2 R:R. That seems more realistic in my time frame, so I adjusted my order to the new one. Hopefully it works out well.

Entry – 161.67

Updating 2/20/2024

On the day this trade triggered, It was after 6:00, and I was finished with the bulk of my work for the day. I was on the couch watching TV, when I checked the charts for the last time prior to entry. Price was still a little off of my entry point, but the action looked good, so I left it alone. A few minutes later — like, less than 20 — I got the notification that my order had been triggered.

I was excited about it — I had just checked the charts and price wasn’t really threatening to trigger my entry yet. So the fact that it had pushed up and triggered me in so quickly seemed like a fantastic sign. Unfortunately, though, when I looked at the chart again, I discovered that price hadn’t actually broken out — it just got near the highs and I was  triggered due to the spread/slippage.

Exit – 161.53

I can’t even say that my entry was the highest that this made, because truthfully, it didn’t even really get up to my entry. And from there, in less than 20 minutes, price reversed and stopped me out for a loss.

What’s worse is that after stopping me out, price pushed up to within 2 pips of 1R over the next couple of hours, and (by today) has pushed well through my target. Once again, this should have at least been a break-even trade.

If I had placed my stop just a little lower — at a more clear key area — I may not have been stopped out and it would’ve been a win. If I were to have picked a different stop, though, that would affect my risk level, decreasing my R:R, and potentially making this not viable..

Even if I had stuck with my initial outlook and traded the daily chart with a longer-term hold period; it still may not have worked out. Price has yet to reach even 1R based on my original numbers. It still could, and if I were to have made that move I’d still be in the trade, so it’s impossible to say at this moment if I had it right the first time. Regardless, even if I did have it right, holding for 4+ days isn’t really in my plan, and isn’t going to lead to much profitability trading .5% – 1% of my account…

Trading, amiright?

I was looking through the charts on a daily time-frame, and saw that this was butting up against a really strong resistance area. Price was somewhat steadily pushing up over the last couple of weeks, and is now at the point it looks like it’s ready to break out. On top of that, the current candle had a really long lower wick.

I dropped down to the 15 minute chart, and while price is in oversold levels, I’m not really trading this time-frame — just looking for entries. There’s a clear bull-pullback on the 15 minute chart, and it’s giving me a risk of 18 pips. I had already picked my target (98.5) before I went to the 15 minute chart, and with those numbers, I’ve got a nearly 3.5 R:R. We’ll see how this one works out.

Entry – 97.881

Updating 2/20/2024

This trade and the Euro-Yen trade triggered at essentially the same time. Both of them being JPY pairs, and both making such a large jump to trigger my entries, I was feeling very confident. Excited even; and I was adding up the amount of pips I was going to make in my head.

Exit – 97.7

Like EUR/JPY, though, price reversed almost immediately after triggering my entry; pushed down just enough to touch my stop for a full loss; then pushed up through 1R and by today (2/20) up to my target. At least this pair had the decency to take a little over an hour to stop me out, instead of 5 minutes, but the result and the subsequent price action is all the same.

This is one of those extremely discouraging days. I was right about the direction, I was right about the distance, and, really, I was right about the timing. It’s really difficult to buy in to the idea that there’s not stop-loss hunting taking place when this happens, and how am I going to be successful if the big players are just hunting my stop losses and literally taking my money.

That’s victim mentality, though, and that’s not really how I roll. If other people can do it, so can I. I just need to continue carving out my niche. Besides, overall, I’ve been successful and my results have been trending in the right direction. This was just one of those things that’ll test my intestinal fortitude, and I’m going to come out the other side stronger. I need to make a change somewhere, that’s clear, but there’s not stopping and there’s no going back. Just keep swimming .

What did you think about today’s trades? Let me know in the comments. If you were able to catch pips on these moves, let me know about that as well! Thanks for reading, and be sure to check back often for more trades and analysis.

The post Stops Hunted | EUR/JPY & AUD/JPY Long Forex Trades | February 15, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

It’s been a bit of a slow rollout, trying to get to WeWork on time in the mornings, so I’m a bit late today. I just got mostly setup, and opened the charts, so I’m going to dive in here soon — I just have to hook up the second screen, but I’m about to dive in.

Also, since I’m a bit late, I haven’t actually pulled out any pairs to analyze for this morning yet. So I’m going to start with that. I think I’m going to do my analysis of  the pair as soon as I see it, rather than looking through a bunch of pairs and picking out my favorites. Being behind, I don’t want to take that time. Let’s see where opportunities lie today.

USD/JPY – Long

This is interesting this morning. I mentioned this pair yesterday, but ultimately decided against trading it. That was a mistake though, as price has been pushing up since yesterday morning and is now well above that prior resistance area. It looks a bit extended here, but it’s really on it’s first spike and RSI isn’t quite in overbought territory yet.

Right now, on the 4 hour chart, price is pulling back a bit, and that might be the move to trade. It would be a breakout trade, and not a retest/continuation trade, but the price action looks promising.

I just took a second to run numbers, and to the next resistance area, I’ve got a less than 1 R:R. I could maybe try to find a higher target, but that would feel like I’m forcing it. The other option would be to, maybe, drop down and find a higher stop level, thus decreasing my risk amount — but while that decreases the risk amount I’d say that increases the overall risk of the trade.

I glanced just in case, and I found a decent place to put a stop that would give me a good R:R, but again, I’m not sure if I want to do that. It’s a low pip amount on the risk — only about 12; which could be fine, if the pattern was better, but I don’t love it in this scenario. On top of that, with a smaller pip-risk amount, I’m more susceptible to slippage.

I drew a line on the chart to let me know where I would place a stop if I were to trade this, in case I want to revisit later. But I’m going to hold off for now.

AUD/JPY

I’m not actually sure about this one, so I wanted to talk through my thoughts. For one, this gained a lot of strength at the beginning of the month; but after a couple of days, price largely moved sideways. Yesterday, I was bullish here and sure enough, price did make a pretty strong spike yesterday afternoon.

That spike pushed price above some resistance, and as of today, price seems to be stalling around that area. That stall could be a good place to get in long, but dropping down to the 1 hour chart, I might be bearish. Price has double-topped beautifully so far today, and price is sitting on that resistance area that’s now acting as support.

I think I’ll actually leave this alone for today. The trend, I’d say, is up. So, while recent price action tells me to short it, I don’t want to counter-trend trade. If I play the double-top as a base or maybe a bull-pullback, I could maybe squeeze out a 2 R:R, but again, I’d feel like I’m forcing it. I’ll set an alert to let me know if price gets back up to those highs and maybe I’ll consider it long, but for now I’m going to hold off.

CHF/JPY – Short

This is interesting this morning. I guess at first glance, I could almost call this a counter-trend trade if I’m shorting, but the greater context says otherwise. Price was quite strong for about a month from the middle of December until the middle of January, where it peaked. Through January, though, even prior to the peak, it appears that price started to roll to the down side.

A couple of days ago, price broke the support area that held up through a lot of January, and made  a new recent low. This is where the counter-trend thought comes in because since it bottomed yesterday, price has been quite strong. It’s been on a rally since midnight. That said, though, price has reached the (sloping down) 50 MA on the 4h chart, and the rounding-down 20 MA on the daily chart.

While it is a rather strong spike, it looks like it could definitely be a rally that could continue to the downside in the near future. I keep going back and forth here. On one hand, price did break a pretty strong support area; but on the other hand, the current rally is very strong. On top of that, the rounding to the downside looks less drastic on the daily chart, and I could argue a continuation to the upside based on that time frame.

I think I’ve got too many conflicting signals here, so I’m just going to hold off, unless I decide to run numbers in both directions and do a manual OCO order. We’ll see. Stay tuned to find out.

EUR/CAD – Short

This is a tough one this morning, and I almost just left it alone. Price moved sideways for about a week between the end of January and the beginning of February. From there, price started to steadily push down — appearing to stay in the range, but actually making slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs.

Yesterday, price pushed down to make another slightly lower low, and then rallied a bit and made an equal (maybe slightly lower again) high. Price has pushed down from there this morning, and is now sitting around the lows from yesterday — threatening to make new lows.

This seems like it’s ready to break to the downside, but I do have my hesitations. For one, dropping down to the 1h/15m charts, and price has been whipsawing quite a bit. On top of that, whenever price has made a new low, it hasn’t really made a run; it’s rallied and attempted to stay within it’s range.

I could certainly see this breaking significantly, and if so that’s trading. Recent price action suggests a strong rally after a drop like this, so I’m not going to short it. Taking it long would be counter-trend, so I’m just going to leave this alone for today/this week.

EUR/USD – Short

This caught my eye as something pretty promising this morning. Price has been down all year, largely riding the 50MA to the downside. Yesterday, price made a decent rally getting up to near the Moving Average, but had a strong drop from there, and as of right now, price is on another small rally, but is nowhere near the last candle’s highs. Also, where price is hovering now, there’s a small key area that formed on the drop and rise over the last 2 days.

Dropping down to the hourly chart, There was a bear rally and a bit of a base, maybe, forming? I’d be “shorting” a “high base” here, but it’s something I’ve become more comfortable with. That said, though, if I drop down to the 15 minute, there’s a lot of whipsawing here. I see a good entry area and a clear stop level, but the pattern itself isn’t that pretty. And, at first glance, my target area isn’t going to offer me much of an R:R.

It’s a bit tight today, I think I’ll leave this alone after all.

What did you think of today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments — good or bad, I want to learn and grow together. Thanks for reading, and be sure to check back frequently for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | February 8, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.