I think I’m just doing this to do something. I hope it works out, but ultimately, I just hope that it triggers so I have something to write about. It’s not a great position to be in, but here I am.

I, as with all of the trades that I make, like the movement here. I’m doing something a little different, though. I’m setting a limit order to short this at the top of this small range since price is currently pushing up a bit. With the limit entry, and my stop being above the next key area to the upside, I’ve got a nice 3 R:R.

Entry – 164.408

I noticed this pattern first on the 4 hour chart, and am ultimately setting my entry on the hourly. I like the key areas and the R:R, so I set it. Hopefully it works out.

Exit – 164.6

It didn’t. It took a little bit to trigger, but I looked at the chart to see how it was moving and as I was looking price shot up and triggered my entry and got within a couple pips of my stop within a couple seconds. There was a bit of a pullback from there — only for a couple minutes though — before price pushed up again and triggered the exit.

From there, price has pushed down and is sitting on my entry right now. I considered shorting it again, but I don’t want to chase or “revenge trade”.

I’ll leave the lines for now, so we’ll see how it goes in the coming hours; but I’m done for now. Like I said, I did it to do something, and I’ve got a decent plan for the next few trading days. I guess building a factory is satisfying/fulfilling enough.

Thanks for reading. Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s trade and/or if you were able to capitalize on movement in this pair. And stay tuned for more trades, I’ve got some exciting plans for the future.

The post EUR/JPY Short Forex Trade | April 10, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Full disclosure, I took this trade on March 28th, but I didn’t take notes about it right away — only screenshots. Today’s 4/3, so I’m analyzing this trade in hindsight.

Starting on the 4 hour chart, price made a peak a couple of days prior, but pulled back over the next few days. After about 3 days of pulling back, price pushed up a bit and moved sideways. On the day I took this trade, price had made another push down, and was seemingly stalling at the key area that was formed after that first 3-day pullback.

Price appeared to be struggling to push through that level, and the most-recently closed candle had a long lower wick. It looked like strength was coming back in to this pair.

Dropping down to the 15 minute chart, there was a pretty clean pullback that had just formed, so I set a long entry order.

Entry – 163.541

The pullback completed fairly quickly, and only about 6 minutes after setting the order, price pushed up enough to trigger the entry in to the trade.

Exit – 163.38

Price looked strong initially. It gained close to 5 pips (~.5R) over the next 5 minutes, but immediately started dropping from there. After only another 15 minutes, price had pushed down enough to trigger my exit for a full loss.

On the 4 hour chart, price had been strong overall, and while there had been some weakness over the week prior to this trade, that weakness appeared to be ending when I got to this chart. Price stalled at some support and while the MAs had touched, they hadn’t crossed over yet. On top of that, RSI was around 50 (though, technically, it was below that line and sloping down).

On the 15 minute chart, the faster MA was starting to slope up, and RSI was above 50, and there was a pretty clear bull-pullback. While there were some conflicting signals, overall, a lot of evidence pointed toward strength. On top of that, the pattern I traded directly around suggested strength.

Conclusion

I, once again, am feeling at a loss. I find these setups that look relatively great, but they don’t work out… It’s frustrating. I’m not in the prediction business, though, and I think I’m still getting hung up on that. I’m in the probabilities business. I need to take a larger amount of trades with great setups so I can reap the rewards of the ones that do break.

I’m tired of saying the same things, though, and not being better. Somethings gotta change.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments if you have any suggestions, and stay tuned for more trades.

The post *Shrug Emoji* | EUR/JPY Long Forex Trade | March 28, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

First of all, I need to make sure that I’m logged in to Oanda on my phone. I’m doing another manual OCO order, so I’ll to cancel one order when the other triggers, but I’m going out tonight. It’s dangerous, but I’m taking a stab at it.

Price looked to be rolling to the upside, but that was after a pretty sharp down-move. Price could be retesting here before it heads to the downside, or it could be regaining the strength it seemed to have for the month prior to the drop. There’s been a pretty tight 4 hour base, so I put both a buy and a sell order around the base; with the long entry being my short stop and vice versa.

Like I said, I’m going to be doing my best to keep a close eye on this one. Maybe I’ll set a recurring timer or something on my watch, something to remind me to check periodically incase the notifications don’t come through. We’ll see. For now, the orders are out and fingers crossed it works out well.

Entry – 164.011

4:22 pm

Freaking slippage. The short order filled, but it filled about 3 pips below where I  wanted to; and on top of that, on the chart the candle didn’t even push to that level. Didn’t even do so enough to trigger the alert on the line I drew. And yet, the order still filled. Below that. Oh well, that’s slippage that’s trading. It looks weak; hopefully I made the right call.

After my entry triggered, price did eventually actually push through my entry price, but not very far. About 5 pips of profit is all this got before it started rallying. I kept an eye on my phone throughout the night; ensuing I was ready when/if I needed to make a move, but I never got any notifications.

I checked the chart one more time before I wound down for the night and saw that price was sitting just above my entry. Not great, but still had the potential to push down.

Exit – 164.251

This morning I woke up and didn’t see any notifications, so I was hopeful. I checked the chart to discover that price had in fact pushed decently through my stop loss.

Since I didn’t get the notification, I panicked — wondering if I accidentally cancelled my stop when I canceled the buy order. But that wasn’t the case. My stop was hit normally for a full loss; and I didn’t accidentally lose a lot more than I originally planned.

That was a minor sigh of relief in an overall disappointing trade. I didn’t really have a plan, or really a great outlook. I saw something and thought it had the potential to break in either direction; and it turned out to not break at all. Can’t even say I mistimed this one.

Conclusion

I don’t hate the process I’ve been in of simply looking at charts and putting out orders where I see fit; rather than doing a full pre-trade analysis. I just need to tweak it a little bit. I’m going to start earlier, and I’m going to take a few trades in a practice account.

I don’t start playing basketball without warming up and stretching and I don’t play golf without hitting the range first (or at the very least taking a couple practice swings), and I need to approach trading the same way. Knock the rust off each morning, then proceed once I’m warm and in the zone.

I’m still experimenting with time-frames; and I think if I’m trading before the US market opens and only plan to trade a couple hours into it (and be completely done when I’m done, rather than holding while I do other things and hope) then I think I want to focus on the 5 min. chart. I’ve had some problems with it later in the day, hopefully things work out if I start earlier.

Thanks for reading! Stay tuned to see how my new process plays out, and if I can overcome the struggles I’ve been having for a while. And if you’ve got any advice or words of encouragement, let me know in the comments!

The post Another OCO Order | EUR/JPY Short Forex Trade | March 25, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Once again, I’m not really doing an analysis and am instead just looking through charts and putting out orders where I see fit. The first thing I see this morning is actually the first chart that I looked at. It’s Euro-Dollar, and it looks pretty bearish. This morning, price has been on a decent rally (looking at the 15 minute chart) but if I zoom out to the 4 hour, the rally doesn’t look that strong and looks like it’s well within the overall bearish pattern.

That said, though, there does appear to be a bit more upside here, so I put in a sell limit order at the lows of the key area  I’m trading around and my stop at the highs. I’ve said in the past that I want to try this type of trade more often, so I’m glad I’m giving it a shot here.

Rather than waiting for the break into the direction I’m trading (and thus decreasing my profit potential because my entries are closer to my target), I’m trying to get in at the initial retest of the previous key area. If price breaks that key area meaningfully, I have my stop at the highs of that range. But if it’s a simple retest, I want to be in earlier rather than later of course.

On top of that, I’m still playing the probabilities. I just think, regardless of the difference in the probabilities of this working out vs waiting for the break, this strategy offers me much better R:Rs. And, truthfully, I don’t know if this strategy has less of a probability to work out than waiting for the break. I shouldn’t be afraid of this type of trade (like I am sometimes) and I should seek it out more often. No matter what happens with this one.

The order’s out there, though, and price is approaching my entry, so we’ll see what happens.

Entry – 1.08601

It didn’t take long. Only a couple minutes after typing the above passed when I got triggered in to this trade. Now we wait and see.

Exit – 1.087

After triggering my entry, price moved sideways for a bit, then made a push in my favor. That push only got to about 60% of 1R, though, so I didn’t move my stop.

That was the lowest price got, and from there rallied up close to my stop. It didn’t trigger right away, price hovered between my entry and stop for the rest of the day, until about 10pm when it finally pushed up enough to hit my stop loss.

IDK what to do. Overnight (only a couple hours after hitting my stop), price ultimately pushed down hard and hit my target. I was just early again. I have to take it more seriously, I need to be more consistent, and I think I need to start earlier each morning. I’m not sure how that’s going to work on WeWork days (I don’t want to start trading; stop for an hour to get ready and leave and get to the office just to pick it back up — I want to stay in the moment), but I kind of want to start trading before 7:30. Maybe get a few practice trades in just to get the ball rolling, then dive in to charts and trade.

Not sure how, though, but I’m continuing to push. Something’s gotta give.

Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more trades.

The post Early Entry With a Limit Order | EUR/USD Short Forex Trade | March 19, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

I decided that I could still put out two separate orders, and then manually cancel one of them when the other triggers. It takes more attention, but it’s more than doable. This is the first trade where I’m implementing this strategy. I also saw a bearish move in Pound-Dollar that I tried to capitalize on. Read on to see how they played out.

I’m having difficulties getting excited about trading and have been slacking off quite a bit. To try to remedy this, I’m just diving in today. I’m not doing any analysis, I’m just looking through charts and putting out orders where I see fit.

The first place is in AUD/JPY, and originally, I thought to do a manual OCO order. It might be the move, too, since as I’ve been typing this, price has been dropping.

That’s neither here nor there, though. Price hit a low yesterday and has been pushing up this morning. Price stalled for a bit overnight, but pushed up through the resistance area this morning. When I got to the chart, price was pulling back a little and seemingly retesting the resistance area that was just broken.

I  put an entry order to go long if this breaks back above the highs before the pullback, with my stop at that resistance/key area. My R:R is only 1.5, but that’s going to have to be okay for today. When I was trading more successfully, I was looking for a 1.5 minimum.. I went away from that because I wanted the bigger wins, but maybe it’s something I think about implementing in my plan. We’ll see how the next few trades go.

I’m considering also putting in a short order here, still. We’ll see. I see a couple areas of support where I could put an entry order — but the “best” one is pretty far below current price. I might just let my current order ride and adjust it if price starts to hover around one of those entry areas. For now, though, we’ll see how the long play works out.

Price was dropping, so I did it. I put out a short order in the same pair. I’m going to keep an eye on them and cancel the one that doesn’t trigger.

Entry – 97.329

As the day went on and I watched this chart move, I remained confident in my plan. Price rallied back up to near my stop level — so if this was bearish, it was forming a head-and-shoulders; and if it was bullish, it was a deeper pullback than I expected. I wasn’t at the charts, so around 8:00pm when it triggered, I saw the notification on my phone.

I opened my laptop to take a look, and price pushed through the support area pretty strong, and was heading down. Pretty quickly, I was in profit a couple of pips. I monitored for a little bit, but when price started to rally a bit (back to my entry), I decided I’d just let it ride and not stress myself over it. I set an alert for 1R and put the computer away.

Exit – 97.55

I was in bed falling asleep when I got the notification that my stop-loss had been triggered. Those couple of pips of profit are the furthest down this pushed — apparently the underlying pressure was bullish not bearish — and from there price ran to the upside.

What’s worse, as of right now (11:20am the next day) price is hovering around what would be 1R if my long trade had been the one that triggered first.

IDK. Should I have left the long trade open? Looking now, there was a huge, outsized spike a couple hours before the trade. Maybe I should’ve paid more attention to that? I feel like every time I do a bit more research and try to learn something new to add to my toolkit, I read things that I already do. It’s gotta be mental. I think about trading the wrong way, and I need something to “click” or have that “a-ha” moment that will bring more consistency.

Glancing through charts on the hourly timeframe, I came across this that looks really good. Price has been pushing down this week, and last night through this morning, price bottomed a bit and rallied. That rally reached a resistance area that was created during this overall drop, and price started to push down from there.

This looks like a great bearish rally/retest pattern to me, so I put in an entry order. The R:R isn’t quite 2, but it’s close, so I’m going to let it ride. Here’s hoping it works out.

Entry – 1.27729

It took a little while — almost an hour exactly — but eventually price pushed down enough to trigger my entry. Now we see how it plays out.

Exit – 1.2792

Price never really did much for me. Almost immediately after hitting my entry, price started to rally. And after another hour-and-a-half, price hit my stop loss. This was a pretty discouraging one, the bear rally looked clean and I thought the target was fully in play. I guess I was just wrong. Even as I type this (around 1:30 the next day) price just hovered around my stop level all night last night and made a small push up this morning.

Like I mentioned, though, I’m trying to change my mindset around trading and I think taking this trade was a good step in that direction. That’s something. This trading competition is helping, too, as I’m able to trade with no risk, but there’s still stakes so I want to do well. I hope to come to some conclusions while doing this that I can take into my every day trading. We’ll see.

Baby steps…. I guess… Feels like it’s been too long for that, but not much more I can do at this juncture. On the bright side, the portfolio continues to grow, and I’m up in this trading competition (even though that’s just from holding Bitcoin… still up). I need better habits, and there’s been some progress with that. Just keep swimming.

Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s trade and if you were able to capitalize on any Aussie-Yen movement. Any advice you want to leave in the comments might be helpful as well . Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more trades and analysis!

The post First Manual OCO Order | AUD/JPY & GBP/USD Short Forex Trades | March 12, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Two days in a row this had candles with long lower wicks and small bodies near the highs; occurring near a strong resistance area. On a daily chart. With an entry above the highs of the resistance area, and a stop below the bodies of the last 2 candles, I’ve got a 50 pip risk.

Based on my initial target, I had a 2 R:R, and I can even find a reasonable target that offers a 4. there’s not a pattern per-se that I’m trading in to, just a couple long lower wicks that suggest the buyers are in control here.

It’s the daily chart, so I’m probably going to hold overnight, but we’ll see. I’ll also cancel the order if price reverses. Also, since today’s Thursday, if I do hold overnight, I’ll have to make sure I close this trade before the close of the market tomorrow. We’ll see what happens.

Price was hovering around that breakout area, and was in a bit of a bull-pullback/base on the hourly chart. Looking at that, my initial entry was incredibly far away from current price, far enough that I don’t feel like it would have hit today — and even if it did, I’d be at risk of holding over the weekend.

I ran numbers around the current price action, using my prior entry as a target, and I’ve still got an above 2 R:R. That seems more realistic in my time frame, so I adjusted my order to the new one. Hopefully it works out well.

Entry – 161.67

Updating 2/20/2024

On the day this trade triggered, It was after 6:00, and I was finished with the bulk of my work for the day. I was on the couch watching TV, when I checked the charts for the last time prior to entry. Price was still a little off of my entry point, but the action looked good, so I left it alone. A few minutes later — like, less than 20 — I got the notification that my order had been triggered.

I was excited about it — I had just checked the charts and price wasn’t really threatening to trigger my entry yet. So the fact that it had pushed up and triggered me in so quickly seemed like a fantastic sign. Unfortunately, though, when I looked at the chart again, I discovered that price hadn’t actually broken out — it just got near the highs and I was  triggered due to the spread/slippage.

Exit – 161.53

I can’t even say that my entry was the highest that this made, because truthfully, it didn’t even really get up to my entry. And from there, in less than 20 minutes, price reversed and stopped me out for a loss.

What’s worse is that after stopping me out, price pushed up to within 2 pips of 1R over the next couple of hours, and (by today) has pushed well through my target. Once again, this should have at least been a break-even trade.

If I had placed my stop just a little lower — at a more clear key area — I may not have been stopped out and it would’ve been a win. If I were to have picked a different stop, though, that would affect my risk level, decreasing my R:R, and potentially making this not viable..

Even if I had stuck with my initial outlook and traded the daily chart with a longer-term hold period; it still may not have worked out. Price has yet to reach even 1R based on my original numbers. It still could, and if I were to have made that move I’d still be in the trade, so it’s impossible to say at this moment if I had it right the first time. Regardless, even if I did have it right, holding for 4+ days isn’t really in my plan, and isn’t going to lead to much profitability trading .5% – 1% of my account…

Trading, amiright?

I was looking through the charts on a daily time-frame, and saw that this was butting up against a really strong resistance area. Price was somewhat steadily pushing up over the last couple of weeks, and is now at the point it looks like it’s ready to break out. On top of that, the current candle had a really long lower wick.

I dropped down to the 15 minute chart, and while price is in oversold levels, I’m not really trading this time-frame — just looking for entries. There’s a clear bull-pullback on the 15 minute chart, and it’s giving me a risk of 18 pips. I had already picked my target (98.5) before I went to the 15 minute chart, and with those numbers, I’ve got a nearly 3.5 R:R. We’ll see how this one works out.

Entry – 97.881

Updating 2/20/2024

This trade and the Euro-Yen trade triggered at essentially the same time. Both of them being JPY pairs, and both making such a large jump to trigger my entries, I was feeling very confident. Excited even; and I was adding up the amount of pips I was going to make in my head.

Exit – 97.7

Like EUR/JPY, though, price reversed almost immediately after triggering my entry; pushed down just enough to touch my stop for a full loss; then pushed up through 1R and by today (2/20) up to my target. At least this pair had the decency to take a little over an hour to stop me out, instead of 5 minutes, but the result and the subsequent price action is all the same.

This is one of those extremely discouraging days. I was right about the direction, I was right about the distance, and, really, I was right about the timing. It’s really difficult to buy in to the idea that there’s not stop-loss hunting taking place when this happens, and how am I going to be successful if the big players are just hunting my stop losses and literally taking my money.

That’s victim mentality, though, and that’s not really how I roll. If other people can do it, so can I. I just need to continue carving out my niche. Besides, overall, I’ve been successful and my results have been trending in the right direction. This was just one of those things that’ll test my intestinal fortitude, and I’m going to come out the other side stronger. I need to make a change somewhere, that’s clear, but there’s not stopping and there’s no going back. Just keep swimming .

What did you think about today’s trades? Let me know in the comments. If you were able to catch pips on these moves, let me know about that as well! Thanks for reading, and be sure to check back often for more trades and analysis.

The post Stops Hunted | EUR/JPY & AUD/JPY Long Forex Trades | February 15, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

If I’m playing probabilities, it means I need to get my trading numbers up. And to get my numbers up, I need to continue looking at charts, even after my initial view/analysis; which is what I did today. I thought about putting in an OCO order here earlier, but couldn’t quite get the numbers ironed out. Upon returning, though, I see that long was the way to play this today.

Entry – 160.314

There was a strong spike shortly after I came across the trade, and when I came back to it just now, there was a minor pause happening. Maybe the start of a base on the hourly chart, and a pretty clear pullback on the 15 minute chart. I set an entry around that base/pullback and the trade triggered pretty immediately. Now we just wait to see what happens.

Exit – 160.15

Nope. I was completely wrong. Shorts was the way to play this after all. Once again, less than an hour later, price reversed enough to stop me out of this trade. And, after triggering my long entry, price dropped X pips over the next X hours. In retrospect, this was  actually a pretty clean continuation setup on the 4 hour chart. Price had gotten up to the 20 MA and failed there.

I called this in my pre-trade analysis, too. I knew/know that EUR and GBP are correlated and I shouldn’t have had opposite outlooks on them, but I did so anyway. The correlations aren’t perfect and they can move against each other, but the odds aren’t typically in my favor that they will. If I’m trying to make the best decisions, I need to be better.

On the other hand, though, I was playing price action and anything can happen. But I should be better about considering all of the context surrounding the trade in order to be in the best positions to make (and not lose) money as possible.

Looking today (I’m actually journaling this on 2/2), price ultimately pushed down about 75% of the way to my take profit. But that was after another rally that took price back up to the 20 MA near my stop level. I’m not sure how I would’ve managed this trade better to catch those pips — It would have probably had to have been a new trade.

Overall, I was just straight up wrong on this one. That’ll happen. I still need to figure out how to adjust my decision making process, and I’m moving in the right direction. Shake it off and move on with confidence.

Thanks for reading! Were you able to catch some of my pips on this drop? Let me know in the comments! If you’ve got any questions or feedback, feel free to use the comments section for that as well. Happy trading, and stay tuned for more trades and analysis!

The post Called It In My Analysis | EUR/JPY Long Forex Trade | January 30, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

This had been in a base around a strong resistance area for several days. I noticed some Doji’s last week and wanted to short it then, but never really saw the opportunity. This morning, price broke the lows of the base and when I got to the chart was making a pretty clear bear-rally on the hourly chart. I put in an  order quickly and it triggered immediately.

I picked an initial target using the daily chart (through a couple minor levels of support) and the R:R was ridiculous — over 5. It didn’t seem realistic, so I used the fib retracement to determine a target. It was much more realistic with a still close to 2.5 R:R, so I went with that.

Entry – 186.599

Exit – 187.07

Once again, my entry was essentially the lows that price reached, and just under an hour later, it rallied up to my stop. And, once again, looking at the chart and the pattern and all of the context, I like the trade — and actually, after basing a little above my exit, price ultimately did push down to my target. I missed the move by about a day.

Takeaways? I have no idea. The only thing I can think to do is to continue to remind myself that I’m not in the predicting business, I’m in the probabilities business; and I need to just keep hunting for those perfect setups whose wins will wipe out the losses and put me in to profit. Just keep swimming.

This wasn’t the best first month of the year, but the wheels are turning. I’ve got a plan to get out of the house more, hopefully I’ll be more focused without the distractions of home.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s trade and if you’ve got any feedback or advice. And as always, stay tuned for more trades and analysis!

The post A Day Early | GBP/JPY Short Forex Trade | January 30, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Price had been strong here overall, and it was actually a pair I was bullish on after doing my weekly RSW on Monday. When I ultimately looked to trade it on Tuesday, though, I was less bullish. Price had gotten up to a pretty strong resistance area, and (on the daily chart) there were 2 Doji candles at that level with a 3rd one forming.

I actually thought about shorting this then, but since price had been strong, I didn’t want to counter-trend trade. This morning, though, price had pushed through the lows of those Doji candles, and more-sustained weakness looked like it was in price future here. The up move looked exhausted on the daily chart and there was a definite “rolling over” to the downside on the 4 hour chart. Today looked like the better day to short this.

Entry – 187.23

I ran numbers and liked them, so I started taking notes and screenshots to track the trade. Price started dropping, though, so I had to quickly hit the submit button, so my price would still be available. Very shortly after setting the order, price triggered and things looked good.

Exit – 187.754

It was the first chart I looked at on the day, so I moved on to the next charts, but kept my eye on the price. For the first hour or so, price was hovering around my entry, and I was optimistic. After analyzing another pair or two, though, I looked over at the price and it was a lot higher than I wanted it to be. I couldn’t recall off the top of my head my exact stop-loss price, so I just hoped it wasn’t there yet.

I finished analyzing the pairs that I called out this morning, went back to this chart to see how it was actually moving, and saw that I had been stopped out a few minutes earlier.

This was technically a counter-trend trade, and for that reason, maybe I shouldn’t have taken this trade in the first place. But I could argue definite lower highs and lower lows; coupled with the “rolling over” that price was doing and I was comfortable shorting this. Maybe that’s the exact thought process that’s holding me back. I don’t know.

Conclusion

Other than the counter-trend, I don’t see anything that I dislike about this trade. Maybe I should put more weight behind how each currency is doing overall? I.e. maintain my bias from what I see in the baskets? But I’ve been burned by that in the past as well.

I just have to keep reminding myself that I’m in the probabilities business, not the prediction business. There looked to me to be a high probability of a long run to the downside if price broke back to the lows, and it simply didn’t happen this time. I just need to keep my eye out for more opportunities, try to make the best decisions I can and just keep swimming.

Thanks for reading! What did you think about today’s trade? Were you able to capitalize on GBP/JPY in any way or any other pair? Let me know in the comments. And, as always, don’t forget to check back frequently for more analysis and trades!

The post Possibly Counter-Trend | GBP/JPY Short Forex Trade | January 24, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

I haven’t placed this order yet, but there are some things I wanted to mention before/if I do. For one, the spread is high — close to 5 pips — so that’s kind of hurting my risk level. There’s already an additional 10 pips of risk I have to add to my original risk to account for the spread (which, of course, brings down my R:R).

If I set my entry 5 pips outside of the swing low from yesterday, it’s a “better” entry point, but my numbers aren’t there. If I set my entry 5 pips outside of the lows of the current rally/base, then my numbers are there, but I run the risk of price stalling at yesterday’s lows.

Overall, this has been incredibly weak, though, and RSI isn’t showing price as oversold at all, so I think that’s a risk I’m willing to take. I’ll set the order now, and I of course, reserve the right to cancel it if I don’t like how it moves over the next few minutes/couple hours.

Entry – 0.8182

It didn’t take long — only about 5 minutes after setting my entry order — for price to push down enough to trigger my entry into the trade.

Exit – 0.82001

Just as I called out might happen, price stalled out at yesterday’s lows, and rallied from there. In fact, yesterday’s lows were the lows for the foreseeable future, as price is up decisively from where my entry was.

Price as very weak overall, had rallied up to the 20 MA and was on it’s way back down. There was a strong push, the MA’s were sloping down and RSI was below 50 and not oversold. There wasn’t significant support at my entry, any prior key areas were from back in November, and price had pushed a bit through those levels anyway.

Overall, the things I look for, for a good trade, largely lined up. I honestly have no idea what I could have done differently here. Seemingly, it’s another play where I just happened to be wrong; but it’s starting to seem more like it’s my decision making process itself. I don’t know what else to do, though. I might have to do a George Costanza trading plan and do the opposite of everything my gut tells me to do. I’ve thought about trying something like that in the past, and I think it’s time to try to implement it.

All I can do now, though, is move on; can’t go back.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s trade, and if you would have done anything different. Let’s get better together! And don’t forget to check back for more trades and analysis.

The post Great At Picking Bottoms | NZD/CAD Short Forex Trade | January 23, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.