I started this blog because I wanted to share the ups and downs of trading, and so I want to be honest. And honestly, I’ve  been on the struggle-bus over the last couple of weeks, and I need to get off of it. I guess my last trade was more discouraging than I originally thought. I say it all the time, though: I can’t go back. And I can’t do nothing, so I need to get back on the horse. Here’s to that.

I made it to WeWork again this morning, which is both positive and negative. It’s positive because I got out of the house and this place is more conducive to work than home is. But it’s negative because I can’t seem to get here and settled before 8:30 — really not even before 9.

I try to remind myself that the time that I start my day is less important, but I still don’t feel good about it. All I can do is dive in and hope for the best, though. So without further ado, let’s dive in. I sorted all of my pairs by volume and I’ve pulled out 5 already, hopefully I can find some great opportunities.

EUR/JPY – Long

Starting on the 4 hour chart, price has remained strong over the past week or so, but has pulled back a bit at the beginning of this week. That pullback has reached the rising 20MA, which is also around the highs of a small key area that formed last week. If the strength is to remain, I could see this being where price starts to head back to the upside.

Price was pushing up as I was typing that, so I ran the numbers. I dropped down to the 15 minute chart, and saw a period of sidways movement that looked like it offered a good entry and stop area. There was, granted, a lot of whipsawing in that base, but it was decidedly sideways and price was making a strong push up.

I initially tripled my risk, but didn’t like that target; so I zoomed back out to the 4h chart and picked a target there. That target offered me a 1.9 R:R, and I almost pulled the trigger. I hesitated, though, because this is the first thing I see today, and the first time I’m really doing an analysis in a week or so. I don’t want to make a dumb move because I’m itching to get back in to it.

The trade doesn’t look bad and the numbers make sense, but I just don’t want to be too overzealous. I think I’ll move on and look at the other charts, and plan to revisit this later to see how it’s been moving.

GBP/AUD – Long

I pulled this out because price seems to be rolling to the upside, and might be ready to break today/this week. After the “roll” price peaked, then pulled back roughly to the 20 MA, which has recently crossed above the 50. From there, price has made another push up, and is now roughly at a key area that’s held up going back to the end of January.

This is a tough place to look for entries. Price has pushed through this level a couple of times (sometimes strongly, sometimes not as much), but has continually pulled back to within this longer-term range. I could see this having more strength in the near future, but from a trading perspective, it’s tough. I don’t see a great entry point (one that’s not just below another strong resistance area) that would offer me a good enough R:R, so I’m going to just hold off.

AUD/JPY – Long

This has been up since the beginning of the month, but it peaked last Thursday and has been on a bit of a pullback from there. That pullback has seemingly bottomed out this week — it’s lows being just below the 50 MA — and could be pushing back up.

Unfortunately, even dropping down to lower time-frame charts, I’m not really seeing an entry pattern that I love. On top of that, there’s some very close key areas just outside of the day’s highs. I don’t see a clean entry or stop here on the lower time-frames, so I’m going to hold off. I might put in an order here based on the 4h/daily chart, because I believe in the overall strength; it’s just hard to find an entry/stop/target that’ll offer me a good R:R. The only place I can see one is the daily chart, and that would probably mean I’m holding all week.

I’m going to move on for now, and revisit if I don’t end up liking anything else.

EUR/AUD – Long

This is interesting this morning. Actually, I don’t think I like it. Since the beginning of the month (and a bit going further back, but it’s a mess prior to February), this has largely been in a 150 pip range; sometimes swinging fully withing those 150 pips, and sometimes being in a tight range.

It was in one of those tight ranges (around the lows of the overall range) over the last week or so, but yesterday price made a really strong spike and pushed up to (technically a little bit through) the highs of the range. From there, price made a somewhat sharp pullback, but that pullback was only about 1/3 of yesterday’s up-move.

This looks like it could be a great bull-pullback to trade in to, but the more I look at it, the more it gives me pause. Over the last month+, price has failed once it got to that level, even if it pushed a little outside of the range. Overall, it does feel like there’s underlying strength here, but it could just as easily fake me out. I think I’ll set an alert here, and consider trading this if the alert is hit.

GBP/CAD – Long

Well, this would’ve been great. If I was able to find this when price got to it’s 20 MA (and, of course, actually like the numbers and pull the trigger) I’d be sitting pretty right now. I didn’t, though, and now everything looks extended. I’ll just leave this alone for today and revisit tomorrow/maybe later today if I decide to do an afternoon trading sesh.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis — if you have any feedback or questions, feel free to use the comments for that too. Don’t forget to check back often for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | February 27, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

It’s been a bit of a slow rollout, trying to get to WeWork on time in the mornings, so I’m a bit late today. I just got mostly setup, and opened the charts, so I’m going to dive in here soon — I just have to hook up the second screen, but I’m about to dive in.

Also, since I’m a bit late, I haven’t actually pulled out any pairs to analyze for this morning yet. So I’m going to start with that. I think I’m going to do my analysis of  the pair as soon as I see it, rather than looking through a bunch of pairs and picking out my favorites. Being behind, I don’t want to take that time. Let’s see where opportunities lie today.

USD/JPY – Long

This is interesting this morning. I mentioned this pair yesterday, but ultimately decided against trading it. That was a mistake though, as price has been pushing up since yesterday morning and is now well above that prior resistance area. It looks a bit extended here, but it’s really on it’s first spike and RSI isn’t quite in overbought territory yet.

Right now, on the 4 hour chart, price is pulling back a bit, and that might be the move to trade. It would be a breakout trade, and not a retest/continuation trade, but the price action looks promising.

I just took a second to run numbers, and to the next resistance area, I’ve got a less than 1 R:R. I could maybe try to find a higher target, but that would feel like I’m forcing it. The other option would be to, maybe, drop down and find a higher stop level, thus decreasing my risk amount — but while that decreases the risk amount I’d say that increases the overall risk of the trade.

I glanced just in case, and I found a decent place to put a stop that would give me a good R:R, but again, I’m not sure if I want to do that. It’s a low pip amount on the risk — only about 12; which could be fine, if the pattern was better, but I don’t love it in this scenario. On top of that, with a smaller pip-risk amount, I’m more susceptible to slippage.

I drew a line on the chart to let me know where I would place a stop if I were to trade this, in case I want to revisit later. But I’m going to hold off for now.

AUD/JPY

I’m not actually sure about this one, so I wanted to talk through my thoughts. For one, this gained a lot of strength at the beginning of the month; but after a couple of days, price largely moved sideways. Yesterday, I was bullish here and sure enough, price did make a pretty strong spike yesterday afternoon.

That spike pushed price above some resistance, and as of today, price seems to be stalling around that area. That stall could be a good place to get in long, but dropping down to the 1 hour chart, I might be bearish. Price has double-topped beautifully so far today, and price is sitting on that resistance area that’s now acting as support.

I think I’ll actually leave this alone for today. The trend, I’d say, is up. So, while recent price action tells me to short it, I don’t want to counter-trend trade. If I play the double-top as a base or maybe a bull-pullback, I could maybe squeeze out a 2 R:R, but again, I’d feel like I’m forcing it. I’ll set an alert to let me know if price gets back up to those highs and maybe I’ll consider it long, but for now I’m going to hold off.

CHF/JPY – Short

This is interesting this morning. I guess at first glance, I could almost call this a counter-trend trade if I’m shorting, but the greater context says otherwise. Price was quite strong for about a month from the middle of December until the middle of January, where it peaked. Through January, though, even prior to the peak, it appears that price started to roll to the down side.

A couple of days ago, price broke the support area that held up through a lot of January, and made  a new recent low. This is where the counter-trend thought comes in because since it bottomed yesterday, price has been quite strong. It’s been on a rally since midnight. That said, though, price has reached the (sloping down) 50 MA on the 4h chart, and the rounding-down 20 MA on the daily chart.

While it is a rather strong spike, it looks like it could definitely be a rally that could continue to the downside in the near future. I keep going back and forth here. On one hand, price did break a pretty strong support area; but on the other hand, the current rally is very strong. On top of that, the rounding to the downside looks less drastic on the daily chart, and I could argue a continuation to the upside based on that time frame.

I think I’ve got too many conflicting signals here, so I’m just going to hold off, unless I decide to run numbers in both directions and do a manual OCO order. We’ll see. Stay tuned to find out.

EUR/CAD – Short

This is a tough one this morning, and I almost just left it alone. Price moved sideways for about a week between the end of January and the beginning of February. From there, price started to steadily push down — appearing to stay in the range, but actually making slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs.

Yesterday, price pushed down to make another slightly lower low, and then rallied a bit and made an equal (maybe slightly lower again) high. Price has pushed down from there this morning, and is now sitting around the lows from yesterday — threatening to make new lows.

This seems like it’s ready to break to the downside, but I do have my hesitations. For one, dropping down to the 1h/15m charts, and price has been whipsawing quite a bit. On top of that, whenever price has made a new low, it hasn’t really made a run; it’s rallied and attempted to stay within it’s range.

I could certainly see this breaking significantly, and if so that’s trading. Recent price action suggests a strong rally after a drop like this, so I’m not going to short it. Taking it long would be counter-trend, so I’m just going to leave this alone for today/this week.

EUR/USD – Short

This caught my eye as something pretty promising this morning. Price has been down all year, largely riding the 50MA to the downside. Yesterday, price made a decent rally getting up to near the Moving Average, but had a strong drop from there, and as of right now, price is on another small rally, but is nowhere near the last candle’s highs. Also, where price is hovering now, there’s a small key area that formed on the drop and rise over the last 2 days.

Dropping down to the hourly chart, There was a bear rally and a bit of a base, maybe, forming? I’d be “shorting” a “high base” here, but it’s something I’ve become more comfortable with. That said, though, if I drop down to the 15 minute, there’s a lot of whipsawing here. I see a good entry area and a clear stop level, but the pattern itself isn’t that pretty. And, at first glance, my target area isn’t going to offer me much of an R:R.

It’s a bit tight today, I think I’ll leave this alone after all.

What did you think of today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments — good or bad, I want to learn and grow together. Thanks for reading, and be sure to check back frequently for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | February 8, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

I mentioned in the past that I’ve got a plan to get away from the distractions of home each day, and that plan is to start working from a WeWork. It’s my first day working from one today, so we’ll see how it works out in the coming days and weeks.

On top of that, too, I’m attempting to trade on ToS rather than just within TradingView itself using Oanda. I’m not sure if it’ll be beneficial, but I’m hoping that with a more direct routing, and potentially a better platform, my fills are better and I’m not losing trades due to slippage or late fills.

I’m a little late this morning; I’m still getting used to this office and where I want to land and how I want to work. But It’s a little before 9, I haven’t missed the open by that much — plus I’m swing trading, so that’s not as big of a deal — and I’m ready to dive in.

I’ve pulled out 5 pairs that I like at an initial glance. Let’s see if I can find any actual trading opportunities!

USD/JPY – Long

This is strange, but I wanted to pull it out. Price was strong from the beginning of the year until about the 19th of January. Price peaked around then and started moving sideways a bit, then subtly downward for several days.

At the beginning of this month, though, price made another strong spike and pushed up to (maybe barely above) the highs that were made on the 19th. There was a base around that level, then a pullback yesterday that stalled at the moving averages that just crossed to the upside. Price has made a bit of a push up from there, and that’s the move I’m looking to trade.

After the strong spike, price pulled back to the moving averages, so I’m looking to trade this continuation to the upside. That said, after appearing to want to make a push back up, price made a sizable drop last hour. Price has almost recovered fully from that drop, but it was such a strong drop, it no longer looks like a clean, tradable pattern.

I could just play the break of the key area here, but that resistance area is a pretty strong support area from the first few days of the month, so I’m not sure how viable that is. I don’t want to trade “through” key areas.

Maybe, I could do a longer-term play; put in an entry order on the higher end of that key area, and just put my stop at the lower end, but that feels relatively desperate. I think I’ll just hold off for now and revisit that idea later if I don’t see anything else I like.

AUD/JPY – Long

I pulled this out somewhat because I was also bullish Dollar-Yen. Price had largely been strong since early December, but that strength slowly, but surely waned over the next couple months. Over the last couple of days of January, it looked like this weakness was really going to take off as price dropped strong for about a-day-and-a-half.

From there, price made a strong rally and took back about 75% of what was lost during the drop over the next day. There was a somewhat strong pullback after the rally, but that only dropped about 1/4 of the rally, and price seems to be rounding a bit back to the upside.

Similar to USD/JPY, though, there was a fairly sizable drop last hour that doesn’t really provide a clean pattern to trade in to. On top of that, the high that I’d want to use as an entry point is higher than the recent highs; and once again, that area was strong support in the past and I’d be trading “through” a key area.

Even if I were to try to trade this right now, I don’t see it trading for several hours, so I’m just going to leave it alone for this morning and revisit later/tomorrow.

GBP/AUD – Long

This looks like it has potential to be a really good continuation trade starting on the 4 hour chart. Price has largely been strong since the beginning of the year, though there was a bit of sideways movement over the last 2 weeks of January. There was another strong push up from there, but it wasn’t really sustained. Price double-topped, and pulled back a bit to within the range it was in.

Over the past couple of day, though, price has pushed back up and is at the resistance area that was broken initially at the beginning of February. Price spiked up through that level this morning, but pulled back to it; and appears to be trying to push up again here. It looks like a decent bull-pullback on the hourly chart, and a decent base on the 2 hour chart, so I’m going to pick a target, run some numbers here and put out an entry order.

EUR/AUD – Short

This is that situation again where I’ve got opposite outlooks on currencies that tend to be positively correlated. In this instance, though, I don’t have as strong of a conviction in the other pair, so I’m a bit more comfortable with it.

In this pair, price peaked back on about the 19th of January then pulled back fairly strongly from there. There was a bit of a bottoming and a strong rally at the end of last month, but that appears to have peaked and has been pulling back so far this week. Yesterday, there was a rally that reached a key area that’s been both support and resistance over the last month+, and is seemingly failing there.

The moving averages are seemingly starting to return to the downside, though the 20 is still above the 50; but RSI is pushing down and just crossed below 50. Overall, I think I like the weakness here, and I think the bear-rally is going to be pretty clean on the lower timeframes, so I’m going to check and put in an entry order if so.

GBP/USD – Short

This has largely been moving sideways over the last month-and-a-half, but the lows were broken pretty strongly at the beginning of this week. Price pushed down a ton after breaking those lows, but the drop only lasted about 1 – 1.5 days before price made a strong rally. That rally only got up to the prior lows, though, and price seems to be failing at that level.

Price action has been kind of wild here, and this might be one of those scenarios where I’m shorting a high-base, which I had tried to avoid in the past, but I feel like has worked out more often than not, so I’m going to try not to worry about that.

If I want to play the re-break of the lows, though, price is actually currently about 20 pips above the breakout area, so I think I’ll do this as a long-term play. I think to those lows there’s at least 80 pips, so I think I’ll just trade this on the 4h chart with a 30+ pip risk.

Actually, there is a base on the hourly chart and it’s almost exactly 30 pips wide. I’m going to play this base and that would be taking GBP in two different directions. I’ll cancel the opposite order than the one that triggers if it comes to that; or I’ll just cancel the other one because I like this chart better. We’ll see what price action continues to show me.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis and if you were able to capitalize on any movement. If you disagree with something here, let me know in the comments about that as well; I want to learn and grow together. Be sure to check back frequently, as well, for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | February 7, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

I’m feeling a little discouraged today. I don’t know what it is, but I’m not in the best headspace today. I probably shouldn’t be trading in this mood, but I’ve got to keep putting one foot in front of the other, so I’m giving it a shot. Let’s dive in.

EUR/AUD – Long

This has been very strong over the last several hours, and I think I just didn’t want to ignore it. Giving it a closer look, though, and I don’t really love it. Price had been up since Tuesday, and made a strong break to the upside this morning. The current (4 hour) candle is down a bit and appears to be retesting some support (that was resistance that was broken on this push up).

It looks like price is forming a bullish retest, or a bull pullback; but the highs where I’d want to place my entry is pretty far away from current price. Also, I don’t have a very strong outlook on this pair. If price does push back up, there’s another resistance area just outside of today’s highs that would be my target — this pullback is too deep already to give me a good R:R with that as a target.

I think I just wanted to make sure I had something to look at today, so I pulled it out. But I don’t love this so I’ll leave it alone.

CHF/JPY – Short

It looks like all of the JPY pairs have been down this morning, but most of them had already made a strong push. Franc-Yen, however, hasn’t. Price made a strong drop yesterday afternoon, but failed to meaningfully push through the major support area at roughly 170. On the 4 hour chart, price looks to be in a bit of a low base, but it looks like a lot of whipsawing on the hourly.

I’m considering putting in an entry order on the 4 hour chart, to play the break to the lows, but that’s a much longer-term play. I’ll look through the charts I have pulled out first, to see if I can find something that makes sense for today; and if I can’t, I’ll revisit this.

GBP/USD – Long

This has been ranging since the middle of December, and this morning, price appears to be bouncing off of the lows of that range. I don’t really have a range-bound strategy (technically) but this range was too clear not to at least take a look at.

Unfortunately, current price action is making this tough, so I think I’m going to leave it alone. Price made a strong push up off of those lows, but the strength doesn’t seem sustained. There was a rather deep pullback before making another push up. That pullback is where I’d want to put my stop, but it’s so deep that my R:R is below 1 with my initial target.

I don’t really feel comfortable trying to play this all the way to the top of the range — especially because I don’t plan on trading the 4 hour chart or holding through the weekend — so I think I’m going to hold off. The overall upward movement looks viable enough, but the way it’s moving makes it difficult to actually trade (pick a place to get out if I’m wrong, that also gives me a good return if I’m right).

I thought maybe I’d be able to take a shot at a new strategy here, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to work out.

EUR/USD – Short

This has been steadily pushing down since just before the end of last year, and lately has been failing at the MAs when they reach them. This morning, price bottomed out, rallied, and has just reached the 20 MA (which is also a key area that’s held up several times over the last couple of months). RSI is sloping up right now, but it’s still below 50, and we’re on the 4 hour chart.

Dropping down to the hourly chart, the strength looks more sustained. There was a drop last hour, but those losses were quickly recovered and price closed close to the open, and the next candle is threatening to push above. Actually, as I’ve been typing this, price did push through that key level, and looks strong.

Overall, I’m still bearish here, but it’s just not the right time to get in. I’ll keep my eye on this, and try to short it when/if it starts to head back to the downside.

NZD/JPY – Short

Like the other Yen pairs, this dropped pretty strong yesterday, and looks to continue that weakness today. For some reason, though, I like this pair the most. Price made the strong downward push, made a short 2-candle base/rally, dropped again, and has been rallying this morning. Ideally, that rally is what I can short in to. That said, I will say that this would be a breakout trade more than anything.

Dropping to the hourly chart, things don’t look as promising. Price has whipsawed a bit over the last few hours; the base isn’t that clean, and it’s not a clear bear-rally. On top of that, price still has a ways to go if it’s going to reach the prior support-now-resistance area that was broken on the second push down last night/this morning.

I could maybe argue taking this short on the 4 hour chart, similar to Franc-Yen, but as with that one, that would be a much longer-term trade. It’s not something I want to do right now, so I’ll hold off and come back if that’s something I decide to take a shot at.

USD/CAD – Short

Price had been up here, since the beginning of the year, but over the last week or so has been pushing down. Yesterday afternoon, there was a decent rally, but this morning price has dropped HARD. It started dropping after it reached the 50 MA, and as of now has reached the key area it reached before it rallied yesterday.

Technically, I think this would be a breakout trade, but it dropped so hard after reaching the MAs, I’m comfortable with that. As long as I’ve got a good R:R. Dropping down to the hourly chart, price looks really weak, with no signs of slowing down. I want to be in this. Price is pushing down on multiple timeframes, it failed at the moving averages, and it’s not oversold on any timeframe yet. I’ll keep my eye on the hourly and 15 minute charts here to look for a good setup to trade in to. Hopefully I can get in to this one as it’s my favorite pair on the day.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis; if you enjoyed it or if you have any feedback. And stay tuned for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | February 1, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

It’s a fairly sluggish morning today. Yesterday was fairly unproductive, and it’s trickling in to today a bit. I got out of bed a little late and haven’t gotten a protein shake yet, but it’s after 8:30 so I’m going to dive in.

GBP/JPY – Short

Starting on the daily chart, price had been basing for several days. I noticed 2 Doji candles last week, and thought this would be viable to short then. That never came to fruition, though, but this morning, price appears to be breaking. It’s pushed through the lows of the base, and while technically this would be a breakout trade, it’s an early break of a strong base.

On the 4 hour chart, there was a bit of a stall, but as I’m typing this, price appears to be making another push. I think I’m going to run the numbers here and try to get a trade in before I move on to other pairs.

EUR/JPY – Short

I’m bearish Pound-Yen, so I shouldn’t be bullish Euro-Yen, but I might be. Price has been up for the last month or so (going back to late December), but peaked 2 Friday’s ago. There’s been a pullback from there, and this morning, price has reached the MAs which have just crossed to the upside. And price is stalling at that level.

Additionally, the area price is hovering/stalling right now was a key (resistance) area back in August and October, and could be acting as support now. That said, dropping to the 4 hour chart, this push down looks more like price is trending down, now. The MAs have crossed to the downside, there are definite lower lows and lower highs, and RSI is pushing below 50.

Actually, this looks like a perfect candidate for a OCO order, so I think I’m going to give that a shot, now. I’m going to open an order on either side of this, and cancel the one that doesn’t trigger when/if one does. If it gets to a point where I’m not longer going to be monitoring the charts, I’ll cancel both orders, as this is going to take more attention and management to pull off. Let’s see how it goes.

I don’t actually know. I ran the numbers to the long side first, and initially, couldn’t get past a 1.75 R:R with my numbers. Dropping to the hourly chart, and there’s an argument that price broke some resistance and made a bull-pullback to trade in to, but that’s not exactly what I was looking for, and it kind of takes away the short idea.

I hemmed and hawed on this and price pushed up through where I would have entered on a long trade. I could stick with it, maybe do a market order etc. but since I had an outlook in both directions, I’ll just hold off since I couldn’t do the OCO. I’ll draw lines on the chart to see how it played out in the coming days.

USD/JPY – Neutral

I’m not 100% sure what I saw when I pulled this out initially. Overall, price has largely been ranging/basing for the last couple of weeks, and price is largely in the middle of that range. I don’t really see any strong conviction in either direction, so I’ll hold off.

GBP/AUD – Short

This looks pretty decent, but I’m not sure I want to take 2 GBP trades. Actually, it looks similar to GBP/JPY. Price had been strong for a couple of weeks in the new year, but peaked about 2 weeks ago and has been moving sideways since. This morning, price broke the lows of that sideways movement and could be gearing up to make a push to the downside.

On the 4 hour chart, price reached a low then rallied, which might be a great bear-rally to short in to. The only thing giving me pause here is that the lows here are just above the highs from a range-bound period that occurred back in November-December. I wouldn’t be shocked to discover that price stalled at that level and maybe even started to push back up.

Overall, if I’m bearish GBP, I should be comfortable trading this, but I’m less bearish GBP and more bearish GBP/JPY based on price action not overall currency movement. And while I like this to the short side too, that key area makes me nervous. I’ll hold off for now and maybe keep and eye on it throughout the day to see if the short play becomes  more viable.

EUR/AUD – Short

I shorted this last week — a trade that ended up breaking even as price rallied back up to the prior support (now resistance) area. From there last week, price made another strong drop and pushed through my target, nearing a deeper initial target I had for a short trade in this pair. That’s really frustrating to see — breaking even on a trade when ultimately price pushed through my target — but that’s trading. I should just be thankful it wasn’t a loss.

Anyway. Price bottomed out overnight last night, and has been rallying all morning. That rally has reached the 20 MA, and also roughly the key area that was my entry on my last short trade. This looked like it would be a really good candidate for a continuation to the downside, but this has been really strong all morning. So strong, in fact, that I’m no longer viewing this as a short play here. I’m not ready to say it’s reversing to the upside, but I don’t feel comfortable shorting it.

I’ll keep an eye on it, see how it behaves around it’s Moving Averages/key areas; but for now, I’m going to leave it alone.

GBP/CHF – Short

This pair had been strong since the beginning of the year, but price peaked last Monday and has been steadily pushing down since. This morning, price somewhat based through the early hours, but made another push down a couple of hours ago. Right now, I’m not seeing any major key areas where price could stall, and the next actual area, might make for a good target.

I’m on the 4h chart right now, and there’s a bit of a lower wick and price is rallying back up to a minor key area that’s basically only formed on this downward push. On the hourly chart, that looks like a decent bear-rally; but I’m less concerned with the cleanliness of the pattern, and more hoping the numbers work out. This looks decisively weak, and I want to be in. Stay tuned to see how this plays out.

Thanks for reading! What did you think of today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments below. Or, if you saw something different than me, let me know about that as well. And stay tuned to the blog for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | January 30, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

I woke up at a good time this morning, but stayed in bed longer than I should. By the time I got up it was close to 8:30, so I just started looking at charts. I pulled a few out that I liked, then grabbed a protein shake and some coffee. Now, I’m ready to dive in.

GBP/JPY – Short

I took a short at this short yesterday, but my entry was pretty much the lows price reached yesterday before it rallied. That rally wasn’t incredibly strong, though, and as of this morning, price is back near where I entered my trade yesterday. In fact, price is rallying a bit from that level, and that could be a good rally to short in to.

On the one hand, this has tested this level roughly 4 times, this being the 5th, so I think it’s reasonable to assume that this is poised to break at some point soon. On the other hand, though, it’s failed at this level several times, and could certainly continue to do so.

Additionally, during the last strong spike (last Wednesday), a bit of a support area was created that’s still outside of the lows it’s tested since then. I think if I were to short this again, I’d want to outside of that level. If I were to do that, though, I’d either have to take the trade on a longer-term chart; or wait a while to see if price gets down to that level and then makes a move that suggests I should enter.

Either way, I’m not sure this trade is viable right now, so I’m going to move on and potentially revisit later.

USD/JPY – Short

This is similar to Pound-Yen in that it’s been up strong largely since the beginning of the year, but lately has seemingly been rolling over to the downside. In fact, on the 2h chart, this looks like an upside-down cup-and-handle that’s forming. Unfortunately, the entry point on the cup-and-handle is lower than I’d love it to be; but price is creating a bear-rally on the 15 minute chart right now.

The more reliable play here would be to set my entry order at the break of the cup-and-handle, with a stop above the handle. But I’d then have a roughly 275 pip target, and would expect to hold for 4+ days in order for price to move that much. While I am considering doing more position plays, where I am comfortable holding for that amount of time, I’m not there yet and it’s also Thursday and I don’t want to hold through the weekend.

My other option is to play the bear-rally on the 15 minute chart, lock in profits when/if price gets to the lows (that would complete the “handle”) and hope price pushes further, and be able to get out more quickly if not. That’s my  current cadence, so I think that’s what I’m going to do. I’ll cancel it if the weakness appears to go away.

GBP/AUD – Long

Starting on the 4 hour chart, price has been strong since the beginning of the year, peaked last Wednesday and pulled back some, and has been moving sideways (with maybe a slight upward trajectory) since. This morning, price dropped down to the 50 MA, but failed to push significantly through it and is currently making a push up. This might be where I want to get in.

I’m a little hesitant, though. Zooming out to the daily chart, and there’s a nice base that has formed, but that base is below the highs that were made on Wednesday. A part of me wants to drop down to the 15 minute chart, look for an entry there, using Wednesday’s (the 17th’s) highs as my target. But when I do that, I can see multiple key areas where price could stall.

When/if I implement my position trading strategy — taking trades on the daily/4h chart and holding for several days — I’ll look to trade something like this on a longer time-frame, but since I’m not there yet, I’ll just hold off.

EUR/AUD – Short

This is interesting. Price had been weak for a couple months prior to 2024; but at the beginning of the year, price rallied. That rally peaked last Wednesday (maybe I should do some research to see what happened/what news event occurred that day), and has been pulling back since. There were several days of sideways movement, but this morning, price made a strong drop, breaking the lows of that sideways movement.

From there, price has rallied, and on the hourly chart, I already see a rally/base I can set my orders around. Overall, I like the break, so as long as the target I choose offers me a good R:R, I’m going to set an entry order here.

I have another couple of charts singled out, but at a cursory glance, I don’t love how they’re moving anymore. Maybe I’m a little burnt out after looking at 5 charts and putting out 2 entry orders. Or maybe I’m just laze. Either way, I do have 2 orders out there, and I don’t really feel like looking at charts anymore (and I don’t want to make bad decisions), so I’m going to call it here for the morning. I’ll monitor my current orders and maybe revisit things later this afternoon.

Thanks for reading! What did you think of today’s analysis? Were you able to take advantage of any movement and catch some pips? Let me know in the comments. And make sure to check back frequently for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | January 25, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Positivity, positivity, positivity. It’s been difficult for me, but I need to try to remain positive and go into the markets with a good attitude. With that in mind, I got out of bed a little after 8 and was able to have a protein shake and get a cup of coffee before 8:30. I started sorting the charts right away, and it’s now 8:45 and I’ve got 6 pairs I like that I’m going to dive deeper in to.

Some of them, naturally, are pairs I thought were long yesterday and Monday but that I’m looking at short today. And a couple I didn’t pull out earlier this week at all. The pairs that I picked out today that I like in the same direction as I did earlier this week, are actually (at first glance) my least favorite pairs on the day. So I think I’m definitely going to do away with using the currency baskets.

Going forward, if I do another weekly analysis on a Monday, I’ll just look through the pairs individually on the daily chart to find my bias, and then start my trading the subsequent mornings on the 2h chart with my bias in mind. We’ll cross those bridges as we come to them, though.

As I mentioned, I’ve got 6 pairs I want to go through, so let’s get started.

GBP/JPY – Long

This is one of the pairs I called out on Monday that I was still bullish on when I first glanced at it. Looking at it a bit more closely, though, and I don’t love it. On the 4 hour chart, after peaking last Thursday, price seems to be rolling over to the downside. This morning, it’s been approaching the 50 MA (it already pushed through the 20), and that could be the dip that I’d want to buy.

Looking at the 2 hour chart, though, and strength looks less likely. The 20 MA has just crossed the 50 MA to the downside, and price is below both, making new recent lows. In fact, I almost want to short this here. It would be a counter-trend trade looking at the 2/4h charts, but on the daily chart, it’s more of a range-bound trade. Spreads aren’t that bad, so I think I’ll run the numbers here and just be quick to cancel the trade if things start to look bad.

EUR/JPY – Long

This looks pretty similar to Pound-Yen (of course) — similar run-up since the beginning of the year, similar rounding over the last couple trading days, and similarly looks ready to break to the downside. The only things keeping me out of this trade are A) the fact that the move is already happening, and I missed an entry trigger (I guess I could do a market order, but I’m going to hold off) and B) the fact that the GBP/JPY trade triggered pretty quickly and I don’t need to be in the same trade twice.

If I had gotten to this earlier, maybe I would’ve taken a shot in both, or maybe even taken my shot here instead of there. Can’t go back, though. I’m going to ride with my Pound-Yen trade, and maybe look here if that one stalls out or something.

EUR/AUD – Long

I’m honestly not 100% sure what I saw initially when I pulled out this chart. Starting on the 4 hour chart, price has been up all year. It peaked on Wednesday and pulled back for about a day. From there, it largely moved sideways, though I can see a lower high and a lower low.

That second drop (the lower-low) reached the upward-sloping 50MA, though, and has been seemingly failing to push below that level. On top of that, the 20 MA is starting to slope back upward and RSI is hovering right on 50. This looks like it could be a good candidate to play a continuation if price pushes back to the upside.

Dropping down to the 1 hour chart, and I don’t love what I’m seeing. Price looks mostly down/sideways. On the 2 hour chart there’s a decent Bull Flag, maybe, but I’m not sure that’s worth trading — even if it were, price is sitting pretty far off of my would-be entry.

For now, I think I’ll hold off and maybe revisit later.

EUR/USD

Unfortunately, I don’t know where my head was at when I pulled this pair out, either. Price has largely been down this year, though it based through most of last week. Yesterday, from midnight until the US market opened, this dropped strong, taking out the lows of that range. From about 8 yesterday until early this morning, though, price has rallied hard and has taken out the highs of that same range.

I can’t recall what I originally saw, and I don’t like how it’s currently moving, so I’m going to leave this alone for today.

AUD/NZD – Short

Aussie-Kiwi had been pushing down for most of 2024, until it made a strong spike up at the end of last week. That spike lasted until Monday night, when price started dropping hard. That drop bottomed out at the end of the day yesterday; and since midnight, price has been on a small rally.

I think I’m going to look to short into that small rally. Price has reached some resistance that was strong prior support, and the up-move doesn’t look extended at all, or like it’s returning to the upside. Dropping to the 2 hour chart, I don’t necessarily see a pattern to short in to, but I see clearly defined support and resistance where I can put my entry and stop orders. I’m going to pick a target and run the numbers, putting out an entry order if they’re there.

GBP/CAD

This was going to be a breakout trade. Price had been strong since the end of December, but it peaked last Wednesday. There was a pullback from there, but price pushed back up to the highs on Monday. There was yet another pullback from there and this morning, price was retesting that level once again. Given a good entry/stop/target, I liked this.

Unfortunately, though, I didn’t get to the chart in time; I was analyzing other pairs. Looking now, price made the push and broke that key area. There might be another small pullback forming that I could take long; but I don’t want to chase.  RSI is approaching (or in) overbought territory on multiple time-frames.

Conclusion

I’m in one trade and have an order out for another, so I’m going to let those ride. I may revisit some of these later today, but that’s unlikely. I’ll monitor and manage my current trades, and journal those when they close.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis. And stay tuned for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | January 24, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

More struggles getting out of bed this morning. I’m realizing: I got a new Fitbit and it’s alarms don’t continue until you manually turn them off. The watch sends out like 6 vibrations and then stops. So if those 6 vibrations don’t actually wake me up, then I just don’t wake up? I guess? Seems like a pretty big flaw, and I need to figure out a better alarm in the meantime.

That said, though, I did get up a little before the market opened in the US. I had a protein shake and some coffee, and now it’s a-quarter-’til-nine, and I’m ready to dive in. I’ve pulled out all of the pairs that I want to look at based on yesterday’s analysis and sorted them by volume, and that’s how I’m going to start this morning.

GBP/CHF – Long

I took a cursory glance at all of the charts I singled out, just in case something was moving at the time that I didn’t want to miss. That wasn’t the case, fortunately, and I ended up reordering the pairs based on what looked more viable than the others. First up is Pound-Franc.

Starting on the 2 hour chart, price has been pushing up since the beginning of the year. It made a pretty strong spike last Wednesday and then another one on Thursday, but it’s been a bit more of a steady rise since then. Looking this morning, price made an okay up-move overnight, but then pulled back to the 20 MA; and the current candle is up, but as I’ve been typing this, it’s been falling off of the highs.

The main thing giving me pause here is the fact that today’s highs aren’t quite as high as the recent highs that were made yesterday, so I’m a bit worried that price could stall out at that level; but overall this has been strong so I might be okay.

Dropping down to the 15 minute chart, I see a decent bull-pullback; but the highs/my entry point there would be just below the highs from yesterday, which I don’t love. On top of that, given the spread, my entry would be right around that level anyway. I like the bull-pullback on the hourly chart, too, and with those prior highs as an entry, it makes more sense on a longer-term chart.

I haven’t picked a target here yet, but I think I’m going to and pull the trigger on the hourly chart if the numbers are there. They’re not. Moving on.

EUR/NZD – Long

This could be either really good or really bad. Price rather steadily pushed up for the first half of this month, but over the last couple of weeks, has been on more of a vertical push. Yesterday, price made a strong spike, making a new high, but price pulled b ack through most of the 2nd half of the day. This morning, price has remained weak, but is appearing to stall on the 50 MA (the current candle is sitting on it, while the previous one has a long lower wick right at that level).

This could be a reversal — there’s definitely a new swing low, then a lower high and is currently making a lower-low. But this could also be the pullback needed for a strong Long play.

Dropping down to the 15 minute chart, things don’t look much better. In fact, the reversal looks more pronounced here. This was an incredibly deep pullback, so I’m not sure longs are in play anymore (and I’m not ready to short it, I don’t think), so I think I’ll hold off. Maybe I’ll revisit later and look to put in an order based on the daily chart.

EUR/CHF – Long

Well, I was bullish here, but it’s current candle is really making me rethink that. Price had been strong over the majority of the last 2 weeks, but it peaked last Friday, and started to roll a bit to the downside. That rolling over looked like it would stall at the 50 MA and continue it’s uptrend, but that brings us to the current candle.

Price pushed up about 16 pips — even pushing above the prior swing high — and looked like the strength was in fact coming back in to this pair. From there, though, price dropped pretty strongly, and that candle now has a really long upper-shadow.

This pullback feels too deep, and any strength that seems to come in to the pair gets wiped out pretty quickly, so I’ll hold off here. I almost want to short this, actually, but that seems pretty hasty as well. I’ll leave this alone for a bit right now and maybe revisit in a couple hours to see how it’s moving.

NZD/CAD – Short

It looks like I may have missed the move here. Price has been pushing down for the last week — steadily stepping down and largely riding the 20MA. Yesterday, price made a stronger-than-usual spike, and pushed through the 20 up to the 50 EMA. Price stalled there, though, and has been pushing back down all day today.

At 6am, there was another rally up to the 20MA again, and price dropped pretty strong from there, and is now sitting on a minor key area that formed yesterday when it bottomed out. I don’t want to miss anything here, so I’m going to look for a target and run some numbers. Price is stalling a bit right now, so it might be my entry opportunity.

I’m prepared to take this longer-term, too (maybe entering the trade on the 1h/2h charts), because this looks definitely weak. Stay tuned to see if I ended up getting in to a trade here or not; and how it goes if so.

EUR/JPY – Long

Overall, this looks like it should be a decent long play, but it’s recent price action is giving me pause. Price has been largely moving sideways over the past week, save for a 1/2 day spike that was quickly wiped out. This morning, price dropped pretty strong and took out the lows of the range it had been in over the last week. And on top of that, price looks like it’s rolling to the downside.

Additionally, after the initial push down this morning, price has rallied. But the rally has simply gotten back up to the lows of that range and not much higher. Right around here, there appears to be more weakness than strength, to me.

On the other hand, though, if I zoom out to the daily chart, price looks even more strong, and this slight pullback looks more like a base. It still is rolling over a bit, still, but appears to be stronger than weak.

This is another situation where I wish I could put in an OCO order. I’d set an entry above the highs and below the lows of the current range on the daily chart, and manage the trade in whichever direction it triggers. I can’t do that though, and since I have a bit of a bias in both directions, I’ll hold off. Even if I wanted to trade this long, I don’t see the opportunity until it gets back up to the highs of the current range. I’ll keep it on my list and see how it’s moving later today/tomorrow.

Conclusion

It’s approaching lunchtime in Eastern time, and Kiwi-Cad triggered, so I think I’m going to call it here. I looked at 12 charts, called out and analyzed 5 of them and took a trade, so this was a decent morning. I could do better — get up earlier, get to the charts earlier, maybe even look through more charts — but I don’t want to overwhelm myself, or do busy work just to feel like I’ve done something. I’ve got other work I want to accomplish, so I’m going to work on that a bit.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis and if you were able to capitalize on any moves in the market. Stay tuned to see how the NZD/CAD trade went and check back frequently for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | January 23, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

Today was a strange day. I went to bed at a decent time last night, but just couldn’t drag myself out of bed this morning. I ended up cleaning first thing, and by the time I got to the charts, it was after 9:30 and I didn’t want to be just getting started at that time. So, instead of doing a regular analysis and a regular trading day; since it’s Monday, I’m going to look at the baskets and do a longer-term RSW to set myself up for the rest of the week.

I’m not going to use this analysis as gospel, and I’ll still be able to look at charts based on volume, but this is going to give me a good jumping off point starting tomorrow morning. Depending on how this week goes, maybe this is something I’ll do every Monday from now on. But that’s getting ahead of myself. Let me focus on today and now, and see how things play out.

Without further ado, let’s dive in to the baskets and see where opportunities may lie this week.

USD – Neutral

I don’t see much that excites me here, even looking forward to the rest of the week. Starting on the 4 hour chart, price has been up all year, but there have been fairly long periods of inactivity. Last week, price made a pretty strong push up, peaked at a key level from back in early December, and has mostly moved sideways from there (maybe with a slight pullback).

Some more strength has seemingly come back in this week, but price is still sitting a little far off of the highs that were recently made. It looks, to me, like there’s going to be another period of largely sideways movement; so I’m going to just take USD charts at face value if I come across any and not have any bias.

CAD – Long

Between Mid-November and the middle of last week (mid-January), this moved largely sideways. There were some wild swings within that movement, but price mostly stayed within a range. At the end of last week, price made a strong push up, and took out the highs of that range, reaching the highs of a  key area that held up in early November.

Price peaked around those highs this morning, and as of right now is on a pullback, which might be exactly what I need to get in to this trade. It’s not an incredibly deep pullback, and it looks to be well within the confines of an overall uptrend.

I’ll have to look at individual charts here, of course, but I think I wouldn’t mind being long Cad, when price starts to push up — I also wouldn’t mind waiting until price comes back enough to touch the Moving Average. I’ll keep an eye out here, but overall, I’m bullish CAD.

EUR – Long

I’m cautiously long here because I could just as easily see this create a fakeout and not a breakout. Price has been steadily pushing up since the beginning of the year, and peaked in the middle of last week. The price where the peak occurred, also, was a minor key area back in late-November/early-December.

After reaching that recent high, price pulled back, and for the last few days has been moving sideways/basing. If price can push up out of those highs it could make a strong run since this resistance level has held up pretty strongly.

That said, though (based on the levels from last November where price is currently stalling), there are other levels where price could stall again just outside of the current highs. To put it another way: even if price does break out of it’s current consolidation, the highs it could realistically reach are so close that it would be difficult if not impossible to get a good R:R.

All of this is in EUR’s basket, though, and individual charts might look better. A breakout might be very much in play vs one currency, instead of looking at this as a whole. I’m going to remain bullish here, and do my best not to chase anything or force any trades.

GBP – Long

This has been very strong since the beginning of the year — stronger than EUR — and looks like it could be ready to break out. This peaked at the end of the week last week, pulled back, and as of this morning price is back up to those highs that were made.

Zooming out a bit, the key level price is hovering around now was support back in late August, and a bit of resistance prior to that. If this makes another push up, not only does it look like a clean break, the next key level looks like it would offer a good return.

I will say that RSI is showing this as being overbought — and as being overbought (or close to it) during the majority of this up-move; so this may be exhausted. But A) this is the basket, so I’d like to see what individual charts look like and B) markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent, so if this is indeed strong I’d rather ride that strength and attempt to catch pips than sit out because of an indicator.

Once again, I’m going to do my best to use this information to make the most informed decision I can; but at the same time I don’t want to force anything — taking trades in one direction because of my bias despite what the charts say — or avoid anything that looks great but is in the opposite direction of this. This is just a guideline. It’s a balancing act, and hopefully one I can succeed at this week.

JPY – Short/Neutral

I figured this would be bearish given how bullish everything else looks; and it has certainly been down all year. It bottomed out last Friday and has been on a bit of a rally, which may be the move that’s needed to make for a good trade.

That said, though, on this rally I could almost argue a higher-high, higher-low, then subsequent higher-high. It may be making reversal moves, and I don’t want to get burned because of it. I’m cautiously bearish here right now, so we’ll see how price actually moves throughout the week.

AUD – Long/Neutral

This is interesting this morning. Price has been pushing down for the last few weeks (since the beginning of the year); there was some sideways movement a couple of weeks ago, but price made another push down at the beginning of last week.

By Wednesday, though, price had bottomed out and was on a fairly strong rally. The rally pushed through some resistance, through the 20 MA, and got up to the 50 EMA line. It’s a pretty strong move, and, as it’s pulling back, looks more like the continuation of an uptrend. Price pulled back to the now-upward-sloping 20 MA. Within this week, I see more upside than downside, I think.

Aussie tends to move a lot overnight, so we’ll see how it’s charts are in the morning when I actually dive in.

NZD – Short

Holy crap, this has been dropping strong since noon. It looks like it’s reaching some old support, but this is down a lot right now; who knows how far it could go. It might even be too late to look for shorts — it looks extended so I’d be nervous about it if I were trading right now, but we’ll see how it moves overnight.

If it rallies back up to that prior area around .691 – .692 by tomorrow, it might be a good opportunity to get in. I feel like I got away from doing this analysis because, by the time I got to any charts, the move had been made. I don’t want to fall in to that trap again. So I have to be diligent tomorrow, but it will be tomorrow. I’m giving the prices a full day/night to move, and I’ll check tomorrow to see if these thoughts still hold up, rather than going and looking for opportunities right away.

Either way, this was a strong drop and I’m bearish in the short-term. We’ll see if, by tomorrow, that bearishness will continue, or if this was a bottom before a reversal.

CHF – Short

CHF seems prone to long periods of sideways movement. There’ll be a couple swings, and occasionally a breakout; but price tends to stay within a range. Since the beginning of the year, price had been in a range until last Wednesday when it broke out to the downside. It pushed down through the lows of the prior range, even through some lows that were made on a couple of those random swings outside of the range and bottomed out at the end of the week.

Since the market’s opened back up yesterday, this has been on a rally and is close to touching the 20 MA. It looks like a good rally to me to short in to. If price ultimately fails at the 20 MA, then I think it could make for a good short, even if it’s only back to the recent lows. That move could also happen overnight, which would be unfortunate, but we’ll see in the morning.

I want to point out that the up-move that price is making looks more like it’s rolled back to the upside, rather than simply retested/rallied. That can sometimes mean a reversal. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see this push up more from here. I’m not trading right now, though, just getting an idea of how things are moving, so (again) we’ll see in the morning how this has moved. Hopefully there’ll still be time to short it.

Thanks for reading! What did you think about today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments below. And, let me know below here (or below one of my future posts) if you were able to capitalize on any movements in the markets. Let’s learn together, stay tuned for more analysis and trades!

The post Forex Market Analysis | Week Of January 22, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.

I’m a little sluggish this morning. Between my birthday on Friday and MLK day yesterday, I haven’t been as responsible as I could’ve been over the last several days. That’s on top of it being the new year, and we were just coming out of the holidays and it’s been a slow ramp-up. I am ramping up, though, and ready to get fully back in to the swing of things.

I started my analysis using my RSW chart again this morning, and pulled out 4 charts that I initially liked. If, after I finish analyzing them, I don’t find any trades, I’ll move on. But this is where I’m going to start my trading today. Read on to see the pairs and what I thought about them.

GBP/AUD – Long

This has been steadily pushing up for some time now — at least since the beginning of the year — and looks like it’s ready to make another strong push up. Price peaked last night, pulled back a bit, and is now seemingly rolling back to the upside.

This does look like a breakout trade, but Price has been quite strong, so I might be okay with that. I don’t even see a recent key area to pick a target (or where this could stall) looking at the hourly chart.

Zooming out to the 4h, and I’m a little less excited. The key area price is stalling at now has acted as resistance pretty much all throughout December. And even if this does make that push, the level I’d set my target at is way too close. I can already tell.

I’ll leave this alone for now, and maybe look for longs if it pulls back to it’s 20 MA.

GBP/NZD – Long

Similar to Pound-Aussie, this has been pushing up since the beginning of the year, and has reached some strong resistance that held up through December. It looks like it has strength behind it, but I could definitely see price struggling to break through that area.

On top of that, that level of resistance is roughly the same level that acted as support throughout the first half of December. And, as of right now, price is a little below that resistance area, anyway.

I don’t really love this chart right now, so I’m going to leave it alone.

NZD/USD – Short

Overall, price does look weak here, but I don’t love it from a trading standpoint. Price has mostly been moving sideways since the beginning of the year, but the lows were broken pretty significantly  yesterday. That downward movement has continued into this morning, but now price is stalling.

The area price is stalling at is nothing, really, in the recent history; but going back to early December, there’s a large range that occurred, and price is right in the middle of it. There might be a little bit of a base forming, and a good amount of room to the lows of that range, so this might not be a terrible shot to take.

Aah.. When I dropped down to the 1 hour chart to look for entries, I’m now a bit hesitant. Price is stallin/rallying, so I see where I could put my entry & stop, but my entry might not be in a strong enough spot where the move would be confirmed. Where I want to put it, I could see being faked out.

I could choose a lower entry point, which might work, but that would make the R:R that much more difficult. That support is from over a month ago, too, so it might not affect this as much right now… Maybe since I’m going back and forth so much, I should just leave it alone, but on the other hand, if this does break and I’ve spent this much time on it, I’d be upset.

I’m only trading 1/2 position sizes again — ramping up my trading after the holidays — so I’m going to run the numbers and potentially put in an order. Stay tuned to the blog to see if I end up making this trade.

AUD/USD – Short

Maybe I should’ve been more patient, because this might look better than Kiwi-Dollar. Price, similarly, moved sideways over the beginning of this year, and broke the lows strong yesterday. >Price is stalling a bit right now, and that might give me my entry/stop levels.

Unlike, NZD/USD, though, the level price is stalling at is already the lows of a key area, and there appears to be a little less chop. I also see, maybe, a more-clear target level. I thought about this as I entered the previous trade: I can always cancel the order if I no longer like it for some reason, so I think I’m going to run the numbers and enter an order here. Oh, and additionally, the bear-rally on the 15 minute chart (that I’d short in to) looks a lot cleaner than NZD/USD.

I’m going to leave both orders out there for the time being; and either A) cancel one or the other B) cancel both if a rally comes in in AUD and/or NZD or C) keep  both and hope to double my profits. It’ll all depend on price action, so stay tuned.

Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis and if you were able to capitalize on any price movement. And, as always, stay tuned for more Forex analysis and trades.

The post Forex Market Analysis | January 16, 2024 appeared first on Anthony Bradley's Trading Journal.