From 4/26

“Looking at the stocks that I have left over from yesterday, DKNG looks like the best option. On the daily chart, there’s a nice tight base that has formed over the last 3 days; and looking at the 4h chart, there’s a solid bear rally that’s formed and price is pushing down again today. Looking at the hourly chart, there was a nice 10-candle rally before a drop this morning; the next candle tried to rally a bit but is pushing down as well. I like this short, the question now is where do I get in. I could get in at the day’s lows which is just above the bottom before the rally (with the intention of getting in at a better price) or I could get in at the lows of the base for a more confirmed move. After talking it through here, I’m going to wait for the confirmed move (well put an entry order in at a break of the base) and set an entry order if the numbers match up

Price pushed down, through the price I wanted to get into this at, but my order didn’t trigger. I looked and the price of the option was higher than the limit price I had, so it didn’t get filled. I canceled that order and entered another for the same option (same strike, expiration) for ~$0.10 more than I was looking at yesterday, but that’s not bad. I still wanted to be in.”

Entry – $1.45

Updating on 5/6 – Exit – 5/3 @ $0.79

This looked decent immediately after getting into the trade and even the next day when there was a bit of a retest and more downward movement. Unfortunately, though, the price of my option never go up to .5R, so I wasn’t able to move my stop (or enter a trailing stop). After that, price pushed back into the range it was in before the break I traded, and over the course of the days after that, continued to rally.

Eventually, it got up to a resistance area that was prior support, and I took that break as my cue to get out of the trade; which I did for a .66R loss. I can’t say I hate the trade, It broke support and had room to run, but rallied instead (seemingly to me). I guess earnings were today, so maybe the rally was pricing in earnings? Could be the case especially since price is down a lot today, at levels where I entered this trade initially.

The only call out I have here is to pay more attention to earnings, because outside of that I feel like I did all the things I was supposed to do for a “good” trade.

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“ET — Energy Transfer LP, which I’ve either gotten in before, or at least put an order out for in the past — looks like one of the best opportunities today. Price has been pushing up fairly consistently since the end of December, based for a bit a few weeks ago, pushed up pretty strong, had a pullback, and has pushed back up above to new recent highs. Over the last 3 or 4 days, this has been largely basing. If this can push back up through the day’s highs, it could really run. I’ll run the numbers here and see if I can find a place to get in

Entry – $0.64

Exit – 4/22 @ $0.46

Since entering the trade, price mostly pushed down. This morning, price made another move down, and it was approaching a support area that was also a solid resistance area in the past, around $11.50. I determined that if price broke that level, I’d cut my losses and get out of the trade — maybe look to get back in next week if it pushes back up. It happened, so I exited at $.46, for a small $35 loss. I don’t have much to say about this, it was trending up, clearly broke out of a range and the R:R was there, so I pulled the trigger. This one happened to not work out. I have no regrets.

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The first thing jumping out at me is ARR, which is a residential REIT. Price has been pushing down rather consistently since the end of March and last week it based, and ultimately broke the lows of the base by the end of the week. Today, price pushed up considerably, up to the lows of that base and then started dropping off of that level quickly. I missed the initial retest, but if this breaks the lows it made after the drop, I want to get in. I’m going to run the numbers then (probably) set an order to buy a Put if this breaks $7.92

Entry – $2.39

Exit – 4/25 @ $2.89

This trade was in profit pretty much the entire time I was in it. I was letting it go until it hit .5R, so I was in it for some time. I noticed that the underlying was dropping pretty drastically when I first got in, but my profit in the option wasn’t that much. I even ran the numbers and realized if I had just shorted it and bought back on Friday, I would’ve doubled what my options value was at, at that time. I’m not sure why that’s the case — the main reason I’ve been looking into options is because their profits are supposed to be higher than straight up playing the stock — so that’s something I need to figure out.

Outside of that, though, last night or this morning before I got out of bed, I had a thought: Even though I got into the trade for more than what I intend to risk, I had a stop loss set and (even if I didn’t) my risk right now is 2%. That thought, coupled with the less-than-I-thought returns, I entered a trailing stop at $0.25 — largely because the options had only moved $0.12 so far on the day when I set the order. Not long after setting the order, though, I got the notification that it was triggered and I exited the trade for a fine, but less than I wanted.

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I went back to 4/7, and I don’t have an analysis for this, for some reason. I have a vague memory of using the sizzle index since I couldn’t find anything in my screener, seeing something I liked, running the numbers, pulling the trigger and thinking “I need to journal this”, so this must be that.

Exit – 4/22 @ $3.50

I held this for a total of 15 days, hoping that it would make another push up and out of the base it initially broke when I got in. Unfortunately, though, that never happened. I was as patient as I could be; but this morning, price actually pushed down through the lows of the base and is now making new lows. I got out right as price broke those lows, but looking at the price I got out at, my stop loss was about to trigger anyway, so it was a strong exit. I got out at $3.50, so I lost the full 1R, but that’s just my max loss for a trade, and these things are something I’ve got to live with.

I’m more comfortable now with it than I have been in recent memory. Kind of feeling like I did back when I was successful at Forex. This one just happens to be a loss, and it means the big win is coming. The only major takeaway I have from this trade is that I need to not hold for as long. Come up with my exit date and stick to it, otherwise I’m losing Theta in the option, Time Value. If I got out before, this full loss could’ve been a .5R loss or less. Definitely need to pay more attention to that going forward with options. I won’t have to worry about it as much with pure stock plays.

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PRPL — Purple Mattresses — Which I mainly looked at because it’d be a short and I don’t love my pillow, has some characteristics that make me want to take this short. Price has been dropping since last March, there was a bit of a rally throughout this month, but as of the last few days, price seemingly is pushing back down. It hit some support from the rally and had a bit of another up move from there, but looking at the hourly chart, price pushed above the upper band and ultimately closed below it. All signs pointing toward more weakness. I think I’ll run numbers here too and see if I can get in anywhere

Entry – $1.75

Exit – $1.85

Updating on 4/18

I held this until 4/12, when I exited at $1.85. I didn’t mark down my entry price here, but looking at it now, I got in at $1.75, so it was a profit! I’m trying to jog my memory for when/how I exited this trade, but it’s not coming to me. I can’t imagine I did anything other than follow my rules — wait until .5R and then set a trailing stop. Seeing as how I got out at exactly 10¢ above my entry, I imagine it was a 10¢ trailing stop that was triggered pretty quickly. Not the greatest trade, but a profit and a positive and encouragement to keep pushing

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The number 1 stock I’m looking at today, by my eye, is NLCH. Norwegian Cruise Line. It’s been basing for the last 4 trading days and on the hourly chart, had a breakout and is currently retesting the breakout area. The bands are just expanding and the MA’s are about to cross to the upside, and we’re still not in overbought territory by any means, so this looks good. I’m going to run the numbers here

Underlying Price – $20.06
Underlying Target – $21.00
Strike Price – $19.00
Premium – $1.96

Exit –

My analysis of NCLH was pretty solid, as this trade was in profit for most of the time I was in it. The morning of 3/29 price gapped up, and my position looked solid — I was up .36R in the morning. At it’s peak, I was up just under .41R on the day. Wanting to lock in profits, I set a trailing stop order for 15¢ below market, which was filled shortly after I entered it. Unfortunately, though, the price I exited was for a profit of .32R, which is a lot less than the .41R I was up, but now that I look at it, a good amount more than the .17R I thought it was initially.

I did think, at first when I exited this trade, that I only made about .17R on it and I was quite upset about it even though it was a win. I calmed myself down, though, it was a win, and look, it was for more than I thought. No need to get upset, especially at this stage. I’m getting into multiple trades again and following my rules and IT WAS A WIN! I understand that this one is just a trade that happened to work out, I’m not too elated over it, just working through and trying to stay consistent.

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First thing this morning, I got a notification in TradingView that SOFI reached a level where I wanted to look to short it. It’s hovering around a support level, has been pushing down for a long time now, and the support level is one of a small rally. I’m looking to take this in the direction it’s already moving, but not until a breakout. I set an entry order to get me into a 4/22 9.50 Put if/when SOFI reaches 9.24, one penny below the lows of the base

Looking this morning, price pushed through the level that I was looking at yesterday, so I looked again for options today. I found one expiring relatively soon that was in my price range, so I pulled the trigger. Didn’t wait for any breakout levels because it already had broken out.

Entry – 3/24 @ $0.80

Exit – 3/31 @ $0.34

I got into this short on a breakout of support to the downside after a rally, in an overall downward trending security. The morning of the 29th, though, price rallied, took out the upper areas of the range that I shorted the break of, and pushed through yet another resistance area. It was definitely enough upward movement for me (actually, had I gotten to the computer earlier, I might’ve gotten out of this earlier) so I exited. Price: $0.34 $46 loss. Not upset in the least, this particular trade just happened to not work out.

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Underlying Price – $18.52
Underlying Target – $20.00
Strike Price – $18.50
Premium – $1.33

Exit – $2.29

Updating on 4/18

I held this until 4/4, when price finally made it to .5R. Once again, this was a little bit ago, and I can’t say for sure the method I used to trail my stop — other than knowing that I did use a trailing stop. I want to say it was 15¢, but I may very well be making that up. What I do know, though, is that I exited at $2.29 for a nice profit! Gotta get more of these, but without holding for as long lol

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IIRC, I couldn’t find anything that I liked on my watch list, so I checked the sizzle index within ThinkorSwim and this is one that came up. It had been pushing down for weeks, and appeared to be in a place of consolidation before pushing down again.

Entry – $2.75

Exit – 3/31 @ $1.70

I let this run for quite a while since it didn’t make moves that suggested to me it was pushing up. It wasn’t pushing down, but for several days it stalled right around a resistance area. I thought about liquidating a few days early, but even then told myself that I didn’t need to get out because it wasn’t really tying up capital. I was still able to get into trades no problem.

On Tuesday (3/29) when I looked at MYTE, though, price did push up through that resistance area, and was coming up against another one. That up-move was enough for me, so I closed it at market. $1.70

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AMC is one of the meme stocks that I’ve wanted to avoid, but I need to put my feelings of jealousy? I guess? Aside, not buy into the hype, and still make myself available to take advantage of the less-informed but “Apes stick together” moves.

Entry – $2.96

Here are the exact things I thought about when entering this trade, copy and pasted:

AMC came up on my watchlist this morning as it was pushing up, quite a bit. Looking at the hourly chart, though, it looked a bit extended at the open, pushed slightly above the upper Bollinger band, and has been pushing down for the last couple of hours. RSI isn’t quite in overbought levels, yet, but with the upper band being breached and this overall downtrend, it looked like it had some weakness in it’s future to me. I ran the numbers, to make sure I could get in for a price that doesn’t take out my break even level, and everything looked good, so I entered an entry order that was filled immediately.

Exit – $1.99

I exited this trade on Monday, after entering an order to get me out at the market if the underlying hit $16, which it did. As of now it’s up to over $18, so that’s good. I didn’t let my emotions around thinking it was dropping to keep me in the trade. I saw a strong resistance level, called it my pain point and got out. Another trade where I feel as though I did most things right and it just happened to be a loser. It’s a good thing. The winner, the HUGE winner, is coming.

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