Equities rose sharply on Monday but dropped again yesterday. Futures are showing another up-day right now, but the highs aren’t anywhere near yesterday’s (while S&P dropped pretty significantly, it pushed up pretty high before doing so). I’ll mostly take charts at face value, and then revisit when I see what the market actually ends up doing when it opens
USD [S/N] – The fed surprisingly cut rates yesterday which caused USD to drop pretty quickly, but it gained back a lot of those losses before close. That said, it did still finish lower, and today’s candle is looking bearish. There is a good amount of support at the level it’s currently at, but this is making new lows, so I’m comfortable looking for opportunities to short this
Today’s Pair
AUD/USD – Long
CAD [N] – I don’t think I’m bullish or bearish on CAD right now. Over the past week, this has been somewhat whipsawing, and while it has made new lows, it’s stalling out at a level of support at the bottom of that range, and today it seems to be rallying. I’m going to continue to leave this alone until there’s more confirmation on direction
EUR [N] – After being very strong for the last couple of weeks of last month, yesterday’s candle has long upper and lower wicks, but closed almost at the open, and today’s candle is down quite a bit. I don’t want to short this right now, it looks like I could, but that would be a bit premature, so I’ll wait and see if the down-move is confirmed. Maybe I’ll see what this is doing tonight
GBP [N] – After the 4 big down-days, yesterday was up slightly (with long shadows) and today has long shadows but price is sitting at the open. This looks like it might be forming another base at the bottom of this range (in an area where it’s based before), but either way, direction isn’t really confirmed. I’ll let this go for most of today and revisit tonight/tomorrow if it moves anywhere
JPY [N] – This showed a lot of strength right at the end of February, but doesn’t seem to be continuing (at least not with as much conviction). Yesterday, this spiked a bit, but didn’t reach the highs set by the previous 2 days, and while today’s price has pushed above yesterday’s, price is currently down a decent amount. I think I like this to the upside in the coming days, but not this morning. I’ll revisit later
AUD [L/N] – This has been on a rally since hitting those new lows at the end of last week. It made a new high yesterday and pushed a little above that high already today. This basket is on a pullback, too, so I’ll look for an opportunity to take this long, but only outside of a major support/resistance level — I only really like this to the upside if equities are strong today, so if I use a key level, coupled with my buffer, I think the move will be confirmed if I get into the trade
NZD [N] – This looks to be in a weird low-base right now. It’s coming off of a lot of weakness, but is up a bit over the last 3 days. I don’t love this to either side, so I’m going to leave it alone
CHF [N] – This appears to be doing somewhat of a rollover to the downside, but it’s only on it’s second down-day, so that isn’t confirmed. This had a lot of strength up until yesterday, so I don’t want to short it here, but it’s down so I don’t want to take it long this morning either. I’ll leave this one alone as well