Equities sold off BIG yesterday, and while futures gapped up this morning, they’re down from the open. I’m assuming risk-off sentiment, but JPY has somewhat been doing it’s own thing and USD has been following equities more than moving the opposite direction. I’m going to mostly take the baskets at face value but I’ll keep the selloff in mind
USD [N] – This is up today already after 3 down days in a row. That said, it seems to be basing, and not continuing the uptrend at this time. I don’t like the way it’s been correlating with equities (as of late, I don’t actually see much of a correlation at all, positive or negative), so I think I’m still going to hold off on USD for today
Today’s Pairs
AUD/CHF – Short
NZD/CHF – Short
CAD [N] – This is up a decent amount today, but coming off the heels of a 3 day pullback. This could be the trend continuing to the upside or a rally before the trend reverses to the downside. I’ll wait a couple of days on this and see how it plays out
EUR [N] – This had moved much higher already today than the price it’s at now, but it’s still up quite a bit on the day. Currently, this is sitting at a level that’s been both support and resistance. I want to be bullish here, but it’s giving me pause because of the long upper shadow.. I think I’ll wait a day on this and see what happens
GBP [N] – After yesterday’s up-day, it’s down a decent amount today. It’s sticking within that range, though it’s somewhat pushed through the upper end of that, so I’ll keep monitoring to see if a breakout occurs in the coming days, but I don’t want to short this right now so I’ll leave it alone for today
JPY [ ] – This is in a weird pattern that I can’t place my finger on right now. It’s still within the channel of the overall downtrend it’s been in since September, but it’s sitting near the highs of that channel. That said, today’s candle is showing a lot of indecision as it’s pushed up and down on the day, but is sitting right at the open. Over the last couple of days, though, as equities have dropped, this has looked more like the safe haven… I want to take this in both directions, which feels to me like I should take it in neither. I’ll try to keep a pulse on how this reacts when the market opens and then reanalyze
AUD [S] – I wasn’t patient enough with this. It pushed through those lows and is heading lower. I’m going to look for an opportunity to short this
NZD [S] – I made a couple of pips from shorting this yesterday and it’s still showing signs of weakness. It’s not down much so far on the day, but I’m still going to look for opportunities to short this again
CHF [L] – This pushed a lot higher earlier, pushing through those previous highs. It’s pulled back a decent amount since then, but it’s the strongest “long” I’ve got right now, so I’m going to see how it looks against my shorts