I’m a little late today. Hopefully there isn’t too much movement at the open because I only have 10 min. until then.
So far, equities futures are down big this morning, apparently on fears of a Coronavirus pandemic. If that’s the case, I’m assuming that when the market opens, price will continue to fall. I’m expecting a risk-off day today. Update @ 8:32: While there was a large gap down in the S&P, it’s up so far and is looking like it’ll take back some of those losses. Could be why USD is behaving as it is
USD [N] – This dropped pretty big yesterday and while there’s a lot of indecision today, it’s looking weak. With the way equities are behaving right now, I’d assume this would be a strong buy, but that’s not how USD has been behaving; plus, I’m overall bullish here, so I’m just going to leave this alone for today
CAD [N] – This was strong essentially all of February, but yesterday and today we’re seeing large down-moves. This looks like it could potentially be a trend-reversing move and this will become bearish — or maybe it’s just a large pullback and it’ll return to it’s up-move. Either way, I can’t tell today, so I’m going to leave this alone
EUR [N] – This spiked over the course of the last 3 trading days, and today it’s sitting close to the open, but looks like it’s showing some signs of strength. That said, though, it moved much higher than it is now earlier today and is sitting near the open — also at a resistance level. The breakout that I would potentially play here would be way up above today’s highs, and since I don’t believe it’ll reach that level this morning, I’m going to leave this alone for today
GBP [N] – I’m borderline bearish here today, but that’s only on a breakout of today’s low, but even that only offers a few pips before the next level of support. This is pretty clearly basing (again), and It’s staying right within it’s base (again), so I’m going to leave this alone today
JPY [L/N] – This has spiked today (I’m assuming because of the risk-off sentiment) but is sitting at a level that’s been both support and resistance in the past — as I type this, its moving up pretty aggressively, pushing through those levels. If this pulls-back, I’d be comfortable looking for a long entry point. I’ll glance at a couple charts (if I find anything I’m willing to short today) and see if there’s opportunity
AUD [N] – This dropped again over the last couple of days, reaching the lows it made when it had that huge drop at the end of January. IT didn’t quite reach those lows, though, so this doesn’t look like an opportunity to short right now. Also, price is up a bit today — it was up a lot further earlier, but has since pulled back and is sitting closer to the low/open. I don’t love this in either direction, so I’m going to leave it alone
NZD [N] – I made some pips shorting this last week, and the chart looks overall bearish to me, but it did stall out at a level that was resistance in the past, and today it’s showing signs of strength. As of right now, I’m assuming today’s strength is simply a rally before the return back to the downside, so I don’t want to go long, but since it’s up today, I don’t want to short this until it starts to head back down
CHF [L] – I’m bullish on this. It showed signs of strength at the beginning of the year but through most of Feb. up to this point, it was weak, but over the last 6 trading days, including today, it’s strong again. That said A) It is getting back to the highs it made before the drop at the beginning of February (which is also a similar level to the previous high it made back in August) so there’s some resistance there and B) I there’s nothing I feel super comfortable shorting today, so this is somewhat moot
Looks like I’m not going to be trading much today. I’ll revisit these throughout the day to see if any opportunities arise, but it’s Monday, I’m in a bit of a funk, and things look weird, so I’ve got time to trade, I don’t need to force anything today.