After breaking to new highs again last Thursday, the S&P was down a bit on Friday. Premarket, they’re down slightly again today, but that begs the question whether it’s going to open and continue down, or simply gap down and continue up. Currencies haven’t really been following this in the way we expect, so I’m not really going to think about this too much while doing my analysis, but that said, I don’t want to get out of the habit of checking the overall market each day, so I’m going to continue to do this **In the future, A) find a way to overlay S&P with baskets and B) find a way to determine where equities may go when they open instead of, essentially, guessing
USD [L/N] – I could almost make a case for shorting this at this current point, but it’s pretty counter-trend, and I don’t want to do that. Over the last 2+ weeks, this has shown a lot of strength, but it’s currently sitting almost exactly where it opened today and is at a pretty major level of resistance. I’ll leave this alone for this morning and see how it behaves later today/tomorrow
CAD [S/N] – This rallied last week and made new highs, but those were lower than previous new highs. Today, it’s down again, but it’s sitting at some support. Since the beginning of the year, this looks to be slowly moving down, and there could be some opportunity to short this. I’ll see what individual charts look like
EUR [S] – I was almost ready to shift my outlook on EUR to bullish, but after the large rally last week, this has pulled back to the range it was in prior to that (also, the highs it reached were in line with a longer-term downtrend). There is some resistance where it is currently, but if it can break that level, it has a ways to fall
Today’s Pairs
USD/CAD – Long
EUR/USD – Short
NZD/USD – Short
GBP/CAD – Long
EUR/GBP – Short
GBP/NZD – Long
GBP [L/N] – This is staying right within that base, and it’s not quite at the top of the range. I’ll leave this alone for today and see if it does something in the near future
JPY [N] – As of right now, this is sitting at a level that’s been pretty strong support and resistance. Also, today’s a bank holiday in Japan, so their markets will be closed. I’ll wait until there’s going to be some movement here before I get into a trade
AUD [N] – This is in a weird place right now, and is moving in a way that’s not super tradable, to me. After that large drop at the end of January, it rallied and reached the lows of the range it was in. At the end of last week, this dropped a bit again, though not as far, and today, it’s up, but it’s already pulled back and given up half of the gains it’s earned today. I could see a scenario where this goes either way, so I’m just going to hold off of AUD
NZD [S] – I hope I didn’t miss the boat with this one. This rallied a bit last week, moved down by the end of last week and today has broken through those lows and looks to be heading lower. I just hope I can find something to take long against this
CHF [N] – I don’t really love this today, either. This broke to new highs last week, pulled back pretty significantly the on Friday and yesterday had a couple of small up days, and is down slightly today. This could go either way, so I’m going to just leave it alone for now and see how it shakes out later