Premarket, S&P is up, and it’s expected to start making new highs again. I glanced at the baskets, though, and USD is still increasing, so I think that correlation just isn’t there right now. Hopefully the JPY correlation is still there, though, because I’m currently short JPY. Maverick seems to think JPY will continue down as well, so I’m happy there. Potentially, if I see another JPY setup, I may take it
USD [L/N] – As I mentioned a second ago, while S&P is expected to increase (which would typically cause this to fall), this has been steadily increasing over the last 3 trading days, and 5 out of the last 6. It’s hard to tell how much more this can rise, so I’ll see how it looks vs other currencies (except for JPY since they’re typically more correlated)
Today’s Pairs
CAD/JPY – Long
AUD/JPY – Long
CAD [L] – This is down a bit today, but I’m still overall bullish here. It’s currently at some support, and while it’s down, it’s not down very much. I’m not saying I think this will necessarily swing to the upside today, but it could, and if there’s a level of support/resistance on an individual chart that makes sense, I wouldn’t mind going long here
EUR [N] – A couple of weeks ago, I had this in a descending triangle pattern, but it pushed below the lower line of the triangle a week ago or so, and has since ranged essentially. When it pushed through, it did start making some lower lows and lower highs, so I see more of a downtrend forming, but I also see this remaining range-bound for a bit. I think I’m going to leave this alone until I get more of a clear picture of where this may go
GBP [N] – Maverick is long here, but I don’t see it. This still looks like it’s basing and I don’t know which way it wants to go. After a couple of barely positive days, it’s on a slightly down day today — I don’t want to touch this
JPY [S] – This is down a bit today, and continuing to move down. It is at some support, but it’s not a very strong level, and it definitely looks feasible for this to continue down. I’m already in a JPY trade, but if I see another currency that looks good against this, I don’t think I’d mind shorting JPY twice. We’ll see what’s available
AUD [L] – This is still kind of proving out what I thought would happen. It hit the bottom of that range and started heading back up. That said, it’s not heading up very convincingly, but if I see an opportunity (possibly a breakout), I’ll probably pull the trigger here
NZD [N] – AHA there’s the issue. NZD is down again today. It looks like it’s given up a lot of the gains that it gained yesterday, but it’s still stalled out a bit at that .786 fib level. This is a tough one — I don’t want to get out of my trade early, but if this is in fact heading down, I’d rather close my position. This still looks like it has some strength to me, so I think I’m going to let things play out naturally, but I’m not looking to take any new NZD positions
CHF [L] – I might as well mark this as neutral today. The only thing I’d pair this against (the only Short I see today) is JPY, and after my last CHF/JPY trade, I’ve got a bit of a sour taste in my mouth. I’m going to look for other JPY opportunities, and maybe I’ll revisit this if I don’t see anything else that I like