Happy New Year, I’m still a little under the weather, but gotta get to work. I think volume might still be low, as yesterday was New Year’s Day and I’d guess people are still on vacation until Monday, but we’ll see if there are any opportunities.
The S&P pulled back a bit on the 27th and 30th, but on NYE, it rallied some but didn’t get back to previous highs. Premarket, the S&P, NASDAQ and DOW are all up a decent amount, so I’m anticipating some risk-on sentiment today.
USD [S/N] – it’s most recent candle is an up one, but I’m assuming that’s coming off the back of the pullback in equities. This looks like it’s beginning to low-base as well. I’m overall bearish on USD, but I’m not sure if I want to pull the trigger because it’s on a bit of a rally right now. I’ll glance at some charts with USD and see if anything looks good, but I don’t want to force anything. **I’m actually going to try to trade this and test the theory that if I get into a trade when the currency has already moved in the opposite direction that I want it to, I’ll be more successful because it’ll have more room to move in my direction, if that makes sense — again, only if I see a setup, though, I’m not going to force anything**
Today’s Pairs
USD/CAD – Short
EUR/CAD – Short
NZD/USD – Long
EUR/NZD – Short
CAD [L/N] – Since mid December, this made a slightly higher high and a slightly higher low, but since, is having trouble getting back up to those new “high” levels. It’s on a couple of up-days, so it could potentially get there, but it’s hard to say. I think I’m overall bullish here, but I don’t know if I am enough to trade it. I suppose I’ll glance at a couple charts to see if anything looks good
EUR [S/N] – I’m having a hard time analyzing this one. Overall, I’m bearish, but it’s not really pushing down with any conviction. The 2 candles prior to the current one are down, and as of right now, it’s siting at the same level that it opened at — it moved in both directions, but is currently at the open. I’ll see if there are any Short opportunities here — this may be a similar test to USD
GBP [N] – This was in that high-base pattern for 1.5 months, then it pushed much higher, looking like a good long play, but has since pulled back and stalled out at the low of the high base. Currently, it’s rallied a bit, but has only reached as high as the high of the high base from a couple months ago, and isn’t really showing any signs of wanting to move significantly in either direction. I’m going to leave this alone for today
JPY [N] – This is in a weird low-base, but is currently on an up-day. JPY has been pretty unpredictable in the past, so this isn’t a place where I want to take that same risk I may take in USD and EUR, so I think I’m going to leave this alone until I’m more convinced about where this wants to go
AUD [N] – This has been ugly for a while. It’s on a bit of a rally, and the MA’s look like they may cross over, but that’s happened before in both directions, and this can’t really maintain momentum in any direction. It’s in a bit of a base right now, but I don’t love what I see. I’m going to leave this one alone for today
NZD [L/N] – Overall, I’ bullish here, but the last 3 candles are showing a pullback. If it can recover from this pullback and head back up, I still like this to the up-side, so let’s see if there are any bull pullback setups occurring on individual charts
CHF [N] – While I’ve changed my overall outlook to bullish on this, it’s not really proving that to be the case. It is staying above that upper trend-line, but is somewhat basing, and having a hard time moving at all over the course of the last couple of candles. I’ll wait a day or so for this to move more convincingly in one direction or the other before I pull the trigger