I “Missed” the large move from the news announcements this morning, but prices moved in the opposite direction than I anticipated, so I’m not too beaten up over it. That said, watching the webinar this morning, and trying to trade the news events myself, I didn’t feel super comfortable with it (I probably should’ve/could’ve started earlier so that I had more time to prep. Next time). So, that means I need to A) not trade news events, right now and B) continue to practice trading them until I feel comfortable. For now, though, I’m going through my typical trading routine.
The S&P futures are up, which is still suggesting we’re in a risk-on environment. Since I’ve started, that really hasn’t materialized in ways that the trainings say it should, but I’ll still keep that in mind today.
USD [N] – There’s risk-on sentiment, the chart has been steadily moving down, it’s broken through a lower trendline, and Maverick is bearish, so for all of these reasons, I am too. That said, today’s employment report came out significantly better than anticipated, and price moved up significantly because of it. I won’t trade reactionarily, so I’m going to ultimately leave this alone for today as I don’t think it’ll continue to push further up, and I don’t see it reversing enough to short today
CAD [S] – I’ve been bearish on this for a while, and it’s been making lower highs and lower lows. It had an up-day yesterday, but dropped quite a bit off of the news from today. Since I’m already bearish, I’m comfortable shorting this today, if I can find a setup that makes sense
EUR [S/N], this is in a long-term descending triangle pattern, so there have been times where I’ve been both bullish and bearish on this. Price is currently sitting at the low of the triangle, though, and as it’s had it the past, is having trouble pushing through support. Overall I’m bearish on this currency, but I’m neutral until it can push through support (or until it rallies a bit and then heads down again)
Today’s Pairs
AUD/CAD – Long
NZD/CAD – Long
EUR/AUD – Short
EUR/NZD – Short
AUD/JPY – Long
NZD/JPY – Long
AUD/CHF – Long
NZD/CHF – Long
GBP [N] – After breaking through resistance and making new highs, today this has made a down move. This could simply be a pullback or a base, but I’m not comfortable shorting this, and I don’t see signs of going long, so I’m going to leave this alone for today
JPY [S] – This is in a low-base pattern and essentially hasn’t moved at all today. It’s sitting at the bottom of the base, and when/if it breaks through support, this has a good chance of continuing down. We’ll see if there’s anything that makes sense to pair against it today (though I don’t want to hold over the weekend based on Robb’s advice)
AUD [N/L] – This is also in a low base pattern, buti s on a pretty strong bull move right now. There’s a few pips between current price and the high of the base, so there’s some opportunity to go long here. We’ll see if any individual charts make sense, but I’m not going to trade it just to trade it, I need to see something good
NZD [L] – This continues to make new highs, and I hope to potentially make some pips from NZD. I just hope it hasn’t already made the bulk of the moves it’s going to make for the week, and I can catch some pips before the weekend
CHF [S] – I’m cautiously bearish on this today because while it’s on a down-day, and in a descending triangle pattern, price is currently sitting at a pretty major level of support. Ideally, this’ll break through that support and continue down (for me to really be excited about trading it), but there still may be some opportunity here