By the end of the day yesterday and starting this morning, equity markets are down. Both the DOW and the S&P are down .15% and I noticed that EUR/USD dropped and the USD basket rose this morning. This suggests a risk-off environment for the day, we’ll see if we can catch anything before too large of a move is made
USD [L] – I’ve been bearish on USD for a while now, but A) it did (somewhat) bounce off of it’s lower trend-line and B) equity markets are down, so I’m bullish right now. We’ll see what the rest of the currencies are doing so I can find something to pair against this
CAD [S] – This broke below the initial level of support, but the sellers started to lose shortly after. There is another, more major, level of support a little below today’s low — and I’d like it to push through that one as well, but I’m still bearish here. It’s not my favorite, though, I’m hoping something else looks a little better
EUR [L] – This is still in the middle of it’s range, and so far, today has been an up day. I’m still bullish on this, so let’s see if there’s something that I want to short against it
GBP [N] – This looks like it’s hovering above the area that made the high base, but still lower than the range created by the high that started the high base. I don’t think I want to take this in any direction today, so I’m going to leave it alone
JPY [S/N] – This spiked up a little bit earlier today/yesterday night but has since pulled back to the opening price. Based on how this has historically acted against the S&P (over the last month or so, not long-term) I would expect this to go up, but it doesn’t seem to be doing anything. Overall, though, I’m more bearish on this still, but I think I’m going to leave it alone for today unless something big happens
Today’s Pairs
USD/CAD – Long
EUR/CAD – Long
USD/CHF – Long
EUR/CHF – Long
EUR/JPY – Long
USD/JPY – Long
AUD [N] – I want to be bullish here, but It’s on a down day and isn’t actually showing any signs of strength. I’m hesitant to short this, because I don’t see a good short entry point, and I want to be long because it’s at the bottom of the range it’s been in for a while and for the last couple of days, was heading up. I’ll keep my eye on the basket and see if anything big happens, but I think I’m going to wait for this to head back up before I pull the trigger on any AUD pairs
NZD [L/N] – Over the last month or so, this has been making slightly higher highs and lows, but it hasn’t really convinced me that it’s reversed course and will head up. It’s on an up day, and was up yesterday as well, so I like this to the upside, but I don’t love it. I think, again, I’ll leave this alone unless something major happens
CHF [S] – The last 4 days have been down days, and it’s still in that descending triangle pattern that it’s been in for about 4 months. I’d, of course, like it to break through support before I become super bearish on this, but there is some room for it to move before it reaches support, and I’m really, really not seeing any signs of bullishness