Welcome to my blog! This is where I share all of the moves I make in the financial markets. Whether I’m investing in a long-term portfolio, or trading short-term intraday movement, I talk about all of it here. The good and the bad. Today, I’m talking through a couple of shots I took at JPY in the same direction — price action looked strong and I wanted to potentially add to my profits. Read on to see how these trades played out.
EUR/JPY Long
Expected Entry – 162.0 Stop Level – 161.5 Target – 164.0 R:R – 4.0
Two days in a row this had candles with long lower wicks and small bodies near the highs; occurring near a strong resistance area. On a daily chart. With an entry above the highs of the resistance area, and a stop below the bodies of the last 2 candles, I’ve got a 50 pip risk.
Based on my initial target, I had a 2 R:R, and I can even find a reasonable target that offers a 4. there’s not a pattern per-se that I’m trading in to, just a couple long lower wicks that suggest the buyers are in control here.
It’s the daily chart, so I’m probably going to hold overnight, but we’ll see. I’ll also cancel the order if price reverses. Also, since today’s Thursday, if I do hold overnight, I’ll have to make sure I close this trade before the close of the market tomorrow. We’ll see what happens.
Update 11:15
Expected Entry – 161.67 Stop Level – 161.53 Target – 162.0 R:R – 2.4
Price was hovering around that breakout area, and was in a bit of a bull-pullback/base on the hourly chart. Looking at that, my initial entry was incredibly far away from current price, far enough that I don’t feel like it would have hit today — and even if it did, I’d be at risk of holding over the weekend.
I ran numbers around the current price action, using my prior entry as a target, and I’ve still got an above 2 R:R. That seems more realistic in my time frame, so I adjusted my order to the new one. Hopefully it works out well.
Entry – 161.67
Updating 2/20/2024
On the day this trade triggered, It was after 6:00, and I was finished with the bulk of my work for the day. I was on the couch watching TV, when I checked the charts for the last time prior to entry. Price was still a little off of my entry point, but the action looked good, so I left it alone. A few minutes later — like, less than 20 — I got the notification that my order had been triggered.
I was excited about it — I had just checked the charts and price wasn’t really threatening to trigger my entry yet. So the fact that it had pushed up and triggered me in so quickly seemed like a fantastic sign. Unfortunately, though, when I looked at the chart again, I discovered that price hadn’t actually broken out — it just got near the highs and I was triggered due to the spread/slippage.
Exit – 161.53
I can’t even say that my entry was the highest that this made, because truthfully, it didn’t even really get up to my entry. And from there, in less than 20 minutes, price reversed and stopped me out for a loss.
What’s worse is that after stopping me out, price pushed up to within 2 pips of 1R over the next couple of hours, and (by today) has pushed well through my target. Once again, this should have at least been a break-even trade.
If I had placed my stop just a little lower — at a more clear key area — I may not have been stopped out and it would’ve been a win. If I were to have picked a different stop, though, that would affect my risk level, decreasing my R:R, and potentially making this not viable..
Even if I had stuck with my initial outlook and traded the daily chart with a longer-term hold period; it still may not have worked out. Price has yet to reach even 1R based on my original numbers. It still could, and if I were to have made that move I’d still be in the trade, so it’s impossible to say at this moment if I had it right the first time. Regardless, even if I did have it right, holding for 4+ days isn’t really in my plan, and isn’t going to lead to much profitability trading .5% – 1% of my account…
Trading, amiright?
AUD/JPY Long
Expected Entry – 97.88 Stop Level – 97.7 Target – 98.5 R:R – 3.4
I was looking through the charts on a daily time-frame, and saw that this was butting up against a really strong resistance area. Price was somewhat steadily pushing up over the last couple of weeks, and is now at the point it looks like it’s ready to break out. On top of that, the current candle had a really long lower wick.
I dropped down to the 15 minute chart, and while price is in oversold levels, I’m not really trading this time-frame — just looking for entries. There’s a clear bull-pullback on the 15 minute chart, and it’s giving me a risk of 18 pips. I had already picked my target (98.5) before I went to the 15 minute chart, and with those numbers, I’ve got a nearly 3.5 R:R. We’ll see how this one works out.
Entry – 97.881
Updating 2/20/2024
This trade and the Euro-Yen trade triggered at essentially the same time. Both of them being JPY pairs, and both making such a large jump to trigger my entries, I was feeling very confident. Excited even; and I was adding up the amount of pips I was going to make in my head.
Exit – 97.7
Like EUR/JPY, though, price reversed almost immediately after triggering my entry; pushed down just enough to touch my stop for a full loss; then pushed up through 1R and by today (2/20) up to my target. At least this pair had the decency to take a little over an hour to stop me out, instead of 5 minutes, but the result and the subsequent price action is all the same.
This is one of those extremely discouraging days. I was right about the direction, I was right about the distance, and, really, I was right about the timing. It’s really difficult to buy in to the idea that there’s not stop-loss hunting taking place when this happens, and how am I going to be successful if the big players are just hunting my stop losses and literally taking my money.
That’s victim mentality, though, and that’s not really how I roll. If other people can do it, so can I. I just need to continue carving out my niche. Besides, overall, I’ve been successful and my results have been trending in the right direction. This was just one of those things that’ll test my intestinal fortitude, and I’m going to come out the other side stronger. I need to make a change somewhere, that’s clear, but there’s not stopping and there’s no going back. Just keep swimming 
.
What did you think about today’s trades? Let me know in the comments. If you were able to catch pips on these moves, let me know about that as well! Thanks for reading, and be sure to check back often for more trades and analysis.