Welcome to my trading and investing blog. This is where I share my thoughts on various financial markets and talk through the actual trades that I make. Today, I’m analyzing the Forex market for January 16th, 2024.
I’m a little sluggish this morning. Between my birthday on Friday and MLK day yesterday, I haven’t been as responsible as I could’ve been over the last several days. That’s on top of it being the new year, and we were just coming out of the holidays and it’s been a slow ramp-up. I am ramping up, though, and ready to get fully back in to the swing of things.
I started my analysis using my RSW chart again this morning, and pulled out 4 charts that I initially liked. If, after I finish analyzing them, I don’t find any trades, I’ll move on. But this is where I’m going to start my trading today. Read on to see the pairs and what I thought about them.
GBP/AUD – Long
This has been steadily pushing up for some time now — at least since the beginning of the year — and looks like it’s ready to make another strong push up. Price peaked last night, pulled back a bit, and is now seemingly rolling back to the upside.
This does look like a breakout trade, but Price has been quite strong, so I might be okay with that. I don’t even see a recent key area to pick a target (or where this could stall) looking at the hourly chart.
Zooming out to the 4h, and I’m a little less excited. The key area price is stalling at now has acted as resistance pretty much all throughout December. And even if this does make that push, the level I’d set my target at is way too close. I can already tell.
I’ll leave this alone for now, and maybe look for longs if it pulls back to it’s 20 MA.
GBP/NZD – Long
Similar to Pound-Aussie, this has been pushing up since the beginning of the year, and has reached some strong resistance that held up through December. It looks like it has strength behind it, but I could definitely see price struggling to break through that area.
On top of that, that level of resistance is roughly the same level that acted as support throughout the first half of December. And, as of right now, price is a little below that resistance area, anyway.
I don’t really love this chart right now, so I’m going to leave it alone.
NZD/USD – Short
Overall, price does look weak here, but I don’t love it from a trading standpoint. Price has mostly been moving sideways since the beginning of the year, but the lows were broken pretty significantly yesterday. That downward movement has continued into this morning, but now price is stalling.
The area price is stalling at is nothing, really, in the recent history; but going back to early December, there’s a large range that occurred, and price is right in the middle of it. There might be a little bit of a base forming, and a good amount of room to the lows of that range, so this might not be a terrible shot to take.
Aah.. When I dropped down to the 1 hour chart to look for entries, I’m now a bit hesitant. Price is stallin/rallying, so I see where I could put my entry & stop, but my entry might not be in a strong enough spot where the move would be confirmed. Where I want to put it, I could see being faked out.
I could choose a lower entry point, which might work, but that would make the R:R that much more difficult. That support is from over a month ago, too, so it might not affect this as much right now… Maybe since I’m going back and forth so much, I should just leave it alone, but on the other hand, if this does break and I’ve spent this much time on it, I’d be upset.
I’m only trading 1/2 position sizes again — ramping up my trading after the holidays — so I’m going to run the numbers and potentially put in an order. Stay tuned to the blog to see if I end up making this trade.
AUD/USD – Short
Maybe I should’ve been more patient, because this might look better than Kiwi-Dollar. Price, similarly, moved sideways over the beginning of this year, and broke the lows strong yesterday. >Price is stalling a bit right now, and that might give me my entry/stop levels.
Unlike, NZD/USD, though, the level price is stalling at is already the lows of a key area, and there appears to be a little less chop. I also see, maybe, a more-clear target level. I thought about this as I entered the previous trade: I can always cancel the order if I no longer like it for some reason, so I think I’m going to run the numbers and enter an order here. Oh, and additionally, the bear-rally on the 15 minute chart (that I’d short in to) looks a lot cleaner than NZD/USD.
I’m going to leave both orders out there for the time being; and either A) cancel one or the other B) cancel both if a rally comes in in AUD and/or NZD or C) keep both and hope to double my profits. It’ll all depend on price action, so stay tuned.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis and if you were able to capitalize on any price movement. And, as always, stay tuned for more Forex analysis and trades.