Welcome to my investing and trading blog! This is where I share my thoughts on the (primarily) Forex market, and talk through the actual trades that I make each day. Today, I’m analyzing the various Forex pairs for January 11th, 2024.
I’m a little tired this morning. I feel like I went to bed earlier than usual, so I ended up waking up at like 5:30 and couldn’t fall back asleep. About 30 minutes before my alarm actually goes off, I did fall asleep a bit, but because of it, I might be more tired. I’m wondering if I should’ve just stayed up in the first place.
No matter, though. Can’t go back. I was able to get up and make coffee and meditate before 8:30, so that’s a positive. It’s approaching 8:40 now, so I’m going to grab a protein shake and dive in to the charts!
AUD/USD – Short
I started this morning looking at the RSW comparison chart I talked about yesterday, and this is the best pair I saw based on that. Overall, for the last 5 trading days, USD has been the strongest comparatively, and AUD has been the weakest. When I pulled up this chart, I can see that price has largely been moving sideways over the last week+; but made a strong drop, pushing through the lows of the range significantly this morning.
From there, price rallied, pushing up through that resistance area (that would now act as support), but is failing from that area as I’m typing this out. I’ve already glance at this on the 15 minute chart, and things look quite choppy there, so I’m a little wary, but there does look like there’s some significant weakness here.
Things look wild here, and the 15 minute chart is approaching oversold, so I think I’m going to hold off. If this bases for a while — especially on the 1h chart, I’ll revisit, but right now, I’ll wait.
EUR/AUD – Long
This was another pair I got from looking through the RSW chart, and it looks promising. Price has been steadily rising since the beginning of this year, and this morning/overnight last night price made a strong spike and took out a couple of resistance areas.
Right now, price seems to be stalling around those highs, and might be offering a good point to set an order. I’m on the 2 hour chart right now, and while price is approaching overbought, it’s not quite there yet. From a top-level glance, I like this. Looking at the 15 minute chart, things aren’t as clean. There’s a bit of a base that’s formed, but it’s not very tight, and a couple of the candles that make up the base have large wicks.
Price seems to be starting to move here, and I don’t want to miss anything, so I’ll pick a target and run numbers, but I’m not sure I’ll pull the trigger, this doesn’t really excite me. Actually, I looked and picked a target and the most viable one doesn’t offer a good R:R, and a target with a good R:R doesn’t feel realistic right now, so I’ll hold off. I’ll set an alert to torture me if I’m wrong.
GBP/JPY – Long
I won a trade here yesterday, and things still look strong. After I exited the trade, price moved sideways for a bit, but this morning, spiked and took out the highs of that range. Price ultimately made another push up after the initial break, but failed to hold on to that up-move, and price is now hovering around those same highs.
That pullback pulled RSI out of overbought, though, so maybe there’s more upside available. But at the same time, I don’t want to chase. Unlike yesterday, this isn’t currently moving, so I’ll be able to run numbers and make a more informed decision, so I think I’ll do that now. I haven’t looked at the 15 minute chart yet either, and that might be too wild and could disqualify this trade, too. I’m going to glance and see what I want to do.
The pullback is about 70 pips, so I’d need a meaningful target 140 pips away. I see an okay one, but there’s other key levels it would have to push through to reach it, so I think I will just leave this alone for today.
EUR/JPY – Long
This one’s a bit tougher. It looks very similar to GBP/JPY (of course) overall, but this feels more viable. For one, the pullback is only about 50 pips instead of 70; which means my target only has to be about 100 pips away instead of 140. Secondly, that 100 pip target looks a bit more attainable here — it would have to push through a resistance area that was support in the past, but the next key area after that would be my target. That fairly clear gap up to the next key level is making me want to get in to this trade.
The farther I zoom out, the better this trade looks, so I’m thinking I want to take it on the 2 hour chart maybe. That said, if I do that, I’d be falling in to the trap of holding on to an order for a lot longer than I would like…
I think I’ll draw lines on the chart, so I know exactly where my entry/stop/target would be, then set an alert a few pips below my entry. If price gets close in a reasonable time, I’ll open the order, but if that alert hasn’t been hit by, say, 1pm, I’ll remove it from my list and revisit tomorrow/next week. This might be my favorite pair so far, but I need to work on my patience a bit.
GBP/AUD – Long
This was another pair that I liked from the RSW chart. Price has been pushing up since the beginning of the year, and this morning made a strong spike, pushing through key areas and making a new swing high. Currently, Price is on a bit of a pullback. It was a very strong spike, so it might be a bit extended, but it doesn’t look too bad yet. RSI hasn’t quite gotten into overbought territory, though it’s close.
Looking at the 15 minute chart, there’s a lot of chop, and I think I want to stay away. Overall, it looks strong, though, so I’ll keep an eye on the hourly chart, here, and see if it creates a tradable pattern. If it does, I’ll start to look for targets and entries.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis, and/or if you saw something I missed. And stay tuned for more financial market analysis and trades.