Welcome to my investing and trading blog. This is where I share my thoughts on various financial markets (primarily Forex), my ideas on trades that I like, and the breakdown of the actual buy and sell moves that I make. Today, I’m analyzing the market for January 9th, 2024. Read on to see what I think.
It’s another late morning. Michigan won the Natty last night, so I’m a bit sluggish today. Frankly, I should be a lot worse — I almost should call this a win based on that fact. But since I’m late to the charts, and didn’t even meditate, I’m not so sure.
Without further ado, though, I’m just going to dive in.
GBP/JPY – Short
The Yen pairs are seemingly where people are right now, as they have the largest amount of volume. As I looked through more Yen pairs, though, I realized this might be a breakout trade. I’m not sure if I still want to entertain it.
Price peaked last Friday, but has steadily been rolling to the downside since. This morning, price pushed through a pretty strong support area, made a new swing low, and has rallied back up to that support area. Actually, looking at the hourly chart, there’s a clear bear-rally, a good amount of room to the next key area, and RSI is sloping down and below 50. there are a lot of signs pointing toward this being a good short trade, so I think I might pull the trigger here on the hourly chart; and just understand that it’s a longer-term trade.
I’m going to check the 4h chart to make sure the context is still there zoomed out a bit, then run the numbers. If everything aligns, I’m going to enter the order here.
USD/JPY – Short
Being another Yen pair, this looks similar to Pound-Yen. It’s been steadily pushing down since last Friday, and is on a bit of a rally over the last few hours. This almost looks better, though, because while GBP/JPY was a breakout, this looks like it’s up to the 20 MA, and might be dropping from there. My rule is to focus more on continuations from these rallies, not breakouts. That said, though, there’s not as clear of a target as there was in GBP/JPY, and if the weakness isn’t there, there’s a closer level that this could fail to break through.
Given that next key area, I think I’m going to hold off here. I don’t want to pick a target below that, and try to trade “through” that support level — I’ve tried it in the past, and it rarely goes well. I put the order in GBP/JPY, so I think that will be my Yen play for today. If it doesn’t trigger soon; maybe I’ll revisit this.
GBP/USD – Long
This has largely been ranging since the middle of last month; and has been pushing off of the lows of that range since the beginning of the year. There have been some wild swings during this up-move, but it is decidedly up, and price hasn’t reached the highs of the range again yet.
Price peaked yesterday afternoon and has been pulling back since, but that pullback is seemingly stalling around the Moving Averages (on the 2 hour chart). At first glance, I thought it was stalling around the 20, but as I’m continuing to look, it’s pushed through that area pretty significantly and is approaching the 50. As I’m watching, I could now see this pulling back further before it ultimately pushes back up to the highs of the range — if it does that at all.
I think I’ll leave this alone for now, and set an alert at the 50 MA; maybe a better trading opportunity will develop there.
EUR/USD – Neutral
I pulled this out because it’s definitely trading around it’s moving averages, but on a closer look, there’s not much directionality here. Price has been in a relatively tight range all year, and it’s been getting tighter as the days have gone on. If I was able to do a OCO order, I might put an entry on either side here, playing a longer-term breakout. But I can’t place that type of order, plus (admittedly) I’m a bit too impatient for that, so I’m just going to leave this alone.
If it gets some conviction in one direction or the other in the coming days, I’ll revisit. But that day isn’t today.
GBP/CAD – Long
I missed this my first go-round, so I’m revisiting now. Actually, starting on the 1h chart, price is on a pretty strong pullback right now, so I think it was simply up too much when I first came across it. Anyway, Price has been up sine the beginning of the year, but pulled back through most of yesterday. Price made a nice spike up this morning, making a new swing high; and is pulling back from there.
That pullback is stalling at a key area that was created during the pullback from yesterday, and it also stalled at the 50MA (and both MAs are rising). That coupled with the RSI being above 50, and I don’t hate this long. I’d set my entry above some resistance on the way up, and there’s a nice bottom that formed where I can set my stop. I haven’t picked a target yet, so I’ll do that, run the numbers and hopefully put an order out there.
Thanks for reading! What did you think about today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments below. Or if you saw something different, let me know about that in the comments as well. And, as always, stay tuned for more analysis and trades.