Welcome to my blog! This is where I share my trading journal — my thoughts on the Forex market before I get in to trades, and the break down of the actual trades I make. Today, I’m analyzing the Forex market for January 4th, 2024.
It’s another late morning for me. I need to get back in the habit of waking up earlier, but that’s one of the more difficult things to fix. There are things I want to do before I trade each day, though, so I’ve got to do it. I’ll have to force myself out of bed at my first alarm, and know/hope that after a week or so, it feels automatic and I’m not as tired in the mornings. Since tomorrow’s Friday, it’s something I’m going to try to do next week.
I counted through my pairs, and realized that there were only 25 in my list. There are supposed to be 28. So I took some time to figure out which one’s were missing, and to fix that. I’ve also gotten myself a protein shake and a cup of coffee and I’m ready to dive in.
EUR/JPY – Short
This made a strong spike up and peaked back on the 12/19. From there, it pulled back, then rolled back to the upside, getting close to those highs again on the 27th. Price pulled back again from there (slightly deeper than before) and over the last couple of days has made another strong rally back up to those highs — this time fully reaching the highs from the 19th.
This isn’t a breakout trade, or technically a continuation trade. Historically, it’s dropped pretty hard from this level, and that’s simply what I’d be playing today. It’s not within any rules that I’ve laid out for myself so I might hold off, but if it starts to push down, I think I want to get in.
AUD/NZD – Short
There’s a strong level, right around 1.076, that’s acted as both support and resistance in the past. Going back to the end of November/beginning of December this was a strong resistance area that held up at least 3 times. Around 12/13, price broke that area to the upside, and then at least 4 times since then, has retested that same area as support. This morning was one of those times, and on the hourly chart, a pretty clear bear-rally has formed.
It’s still a bit off of the lows, so I don’t see an entry on the 15 minute chart yet; so if I were to play this now, it would be a much longer-term trade. I think I’m going to wait — it’s such a strong support area that Idk how comfortable I am trying to trade through it. And based on what I’m seeing, it’ll be a little while before it has the potential to offer me an entry I like around levels I like. Overall, if this can break those lows, it could make for a great short play, it just isn’t really threatening right now, so I’ll hold off for now.
EUR/USD – Neutral
I initially pulled this out because there was a bit of a cup-and-handle that might’ve been forming, but I don’t really like it anymore. It’s not the cleanest pattern, and the recent movement is pretty wild, so I don’t think there’s anything there anymore. Plus, price is off of both the highs and the lows I’d want to trade around, so there’s another reason I should trade this. I’ll remove this from my list and revisit another day.
USD/CHF – Long
Price has largely been pushing up since 12/29, until it peaked yesterday morning. It pulled back from there, reaching some support that was created a couple of days ago before the peak, and has seemingly started to push up from there. It looked like this could be a great continuation pattern to the upside.
Unfortunately, though, over the last hour or so, now, price has pulled back hard enough that I don’t see how I can find a good R:R here. I’m going to leave this alone for now and maybe revisit if price starts to push up again. I’ll set an alert.
AUD/USD – Short/Neutral
I have to say immediately that I’m not going to trade this. It would be a breakout trade into some support. That said, price rolled over to the downside less than week ago, and has been quite weak since. Price reached a key area from the middle of December, and has seemingly tried to push through. There’s a pretty clear bear-rally on the 1 hour chart, too, so a lot of things are lining up.
Like I said earlier, though, just outside of my would-be entry is more support, and while price did rally up to the 50 MA, it did so overnight and has already made the strong push down. I want to like this, but I think the smarter move is to stay away, so that’s what I’m going to do.
Thanks for reading! Maybe it’s because I took such a long break, but I’m not coming across pairs that excite me to trade. I’m taking some shots here and there, though, and working on getting my trading count up. It’s the first week of the year, and not even a full week, I’ve got time (but not too much time).
Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis, and if you saw anything better. And stay tuned for more Forex analysis and trades!