Happy New Year! Welcome to my trading and investing blog. This is where I discuss what I see in various markets (primarily Forex right now) and talk through the individual trades that I make. Read on to see my thoughts on the Forex market for January 3rd, 2024.
This is the first analysis of 2024 (and my first in a couple weeks, given the holidays) so I’m getting back into the groove of analyzing charts and trading. I’m taking things a little slower, and am taking trades with much lower position sizes while I get my feet wet again. ‘ll pick everything back up quickly, I’m sure. But with money on the line, I feel like I can never be too cautious.
I’m off to a bit of a rocky start — It’s already 8:45, so the market’s been open for 15 minutes and I haven’t opened the charts yet or meditated. I’ve grabbed a protein shake, though, so I’m going to drink that and dive in.
EUR/CAD – Short
Starting on the hourly chart, price has been pushing down largely since early on the 28th. There have been some wild swings, but otherwise it’s been a relatively steady push down. Price bottomed out early this morning, and rallied up to the 50 MA, and has been dropping from there.
Unfortunately, though, price is still a bit off of the lows before the rally this morning, so it’s not in a spot where I’m comfortable trading this. Plus, there’s a couple more key areas right outside of those lows that price could stall at, ruining my R:R. I’m going to hold off here for now and move on.
GBP/CHF – Long
This might be a breakout trade, but the key area price would be breaking is pretty strong; and there’s a clear path up to the next key area. Granted, that level might not offer the best R:R, but at first glance, it looks like a very attainable target.
Price has been steadily pushing up since the afternoon of the 29th; it peaked overnight between the 1st and 2nd of this month, pulled back through most of yesterday morning, and rallied back up to those highs by this morning. Price technically pushed through those highs again, and made a small pullback that I might trade in to. RSI is up and not overbought and both MA’s are sloping upward.
The current candle is pushing down and making this bull-pullback pattern no longer viable, so I don’t think there’s anything there anymore. But I’ll keep it on my list just in case.
NZD/JPY – Short
This looked like it was in a bear rally when I first came across the pair, but the rally was very strong and price appears to be making a new swing high. With such a strong up-move, this is largely disqualified for me, based on my rules and parameters. I could maybe look for a short trade here around the key area price seems to be stalling at a bit, but it would have to start pushing down soon, and develop another short pattern.
I don’t think that’s very likely right now, so I’ll hold off. But I’ll leave this on my list just in case.
NZD/USD – Short
This has rolled over to the downside, and has been pushing down farily strongly for about a week. This morning, price made a strong push down — so strong it’s ridden the lower band and has pushed into oversold territory on the 1h chart — and has been rallying over the last couple of hours.
The most recent candle pushed all the way up to the 20 MA, but failed to hold on to those gains, and price is sitting close to the open/lows of the candle. Overall, this looks bearish, but it also looks like my risk is going to be pretty substantial, so I’m not sure if there’s a target that would offer enough of an R:R.
I suppose I’ll run the numbers and see — and put out an entry order if the numbers do work out — otherwise, I’ll hold off here.
AUD/CAD – Short
I don’t like this, actually. Price was pushing down pretty strongly — it had rolled over to the downside over the past week, and pushed down strong this morning. Right now, though, price is stalling on a key level that’s held up a cuouple of times thoughout December, and there’s another one not too far outside of those lows. On top of that, price has pushed well through the lower band and the faster RSI line is oversold. I’m not sure how much more downward momentum this has so I’ll hold off.
Side note: this is one of those that could continue downward strongly; it’s just not in my parameters to trade. I’m not going to trade it still, but I’ll set an alert to let me know if this does end up making another strong move down.
AUD/USD – Neutral
I can pretty immediately disqualify this one, too. Price is down, for sure, but it’s stalling at a key area that held up in the middle of last month. Even if price pushes through the lows of the day, it will still be a little above the lows of that key area. I’d need to see price break that area before I was comfortable trading it, plus it would need to develop a pattern on top of that. I’ll hold of for now and maybe revisit later.
AUD/CHF – Short
This was my favorite initially, and I think it still might be. It’s not amazing, but I like what I’m seeing and I think I’m going to pull the trigger. I might be falling in to the trap of trading just to trade; but since I’m trying to get back in to the swing of things, and I’m taking very small position sizes, I’m alright with that.
Price has been pushing down since the beginning of the year; it moved sideways through most of yesterday, and broke the lows of that range this morning. Price has already made a rally up to those lows, and failed and has pushed back down. That second push got price down to a key area that held up a couple times over the last week, and if it can break those lows, there’s a good amount of room to the next key level.
Like I said, I like this enough still, and I’m taking a small position size, so I’m going to pull the trigger here. The main thing giving me pause is a couple minor lows that price could stall at, but we’ll cross those bridges. Maybe today should’ve been a day I just sat out, but there’s only one way to find that out. Here’s to making some money in this pair!
Thanks for reading! I didn’t see a ton that I liked today, but I did see enough to put a trade out there. Stay tuned to see how that one played out. Let me know in the comments below what you thought about today’s analysis and/or if you saw something I didn’t. And be sure to check back frequently for more analysis and trades!