Welcome to my financial markets trading and investing blog. Today, I’m analyzing the Forex market for Monday December 4th, 2023. Read on to see how I think the various currency pairs are going to move today.
I’m not doing so hot this morning. IDK. I got up with enough time to pick up the kitchen a bit, have a protein shake and meditate before the market opened. I was starting to feel decent and like I’d have a good day. Then, idk, the anxiety just settled in. I can’t seem to shake it. I’ve taken some CBD already, too. At this point, I’m just hoping it either goes away on it’s own, or I just power through the feeling and work anyway. It seems like the latter is going to have to happen.
I wanted the market to breathe a little, but I took an extra 10 minutes looking at my phone. I’m a little worried that I might be prone to making bad decisions this morning, given how I feel. But I don’t feel like I have the luxury of sitting out right now, so I’m going to power through. I’m about to dive in, now. Hopefully I find something great and make good decisions.
USD/JPY – Short
This looks somewhat interesting this morning. Price has been trending down for several days, and made a fairly strong push down last week. Yesterday, price had a bit of a rally, pulled back, then made another push up to near the highs of that mini-rally. That second push up happened earlier this morning, and is currently appearing to fail. Price also got up close to the 20MA (which just crossed back below the 50EMA), when it pushed up this morning.
The RSI is below 50 as well, and not oversold. And the slower line is sloping down (though the faster one is somewhat sloping up. It’s moving as I type this, though). Overall, I’m bearish here, so I’m going to drop to the 5 min. chart to look for entries.
At immediate glance, there’s no pattern to enter on right now. I looked at the 15 minute and the 5 minute charts. I’ve marked the pair to keep an eye on it, so I’ll come back in a few and hope it’s provided a nice place for entries and stops.
GBP/AUD – Short
I could argue both sideways movement as well as a downtrend here; but the most recent price action is definitely down. Price made a strong drop over the first couple of days of December, breaking a couple of strong support areas. From there, price has rallied, and reached the lows that were broken on 12/1. That rally pushed price up to the SMA in the middle of the Bollinger Bands, and over the past 6 or so hours, price has been pushing back down.
It’s reached one of the support areas that was broken on the initial drop a couple of days ago, and looks like more weakness is in it’s future. RSI is also below 50 and sloping down. This is on the 2 hour chart, of course. There’s a bear rally on the 5 minute chart, but the rally part is fairly deep. Too deep I think to offer a good R:R. That’s just at initial glance, though. I’m going to spend some time here running numbers and seeing if the trade makes sense.
EUR/AUD – Short
I don’t think I’m going to trade this one, but I wanted to call it out. Starting on the 2 hour chart, price has been pushing down, but rallied yesterday and overnight last night. It looks similar to GBP/AUD. The rally was fairly short-lived, and price is seemingly rounding back to the downside.
Dropping to the 5 minute chart, price had made a strong push down to some support, made a small rally there, and started pushing down again. That next push down is where I would have wanted to get in, but I missed it; which is why I said I probably won’t trade this. I just want a note to see if this would have been a good trade.
That said, though, since typing this, the push down didn’t sustain, and made another rally. I’m actually going to run numbers here and hopefully get in a trade. And that quickly (It’s been less than 5 minutes) the rally I wanted to potentially short in to has pushed up a lot higher than I’d like. It’s way above my would-be stop. It’s close but if this candle closes below my stop level, I’ll still enter the order, but I think this one is done.
CHF/JPY – Long
This is an interesting one. I probably won’t trade it today, but it looks good, so I wanted to call it out — maybe I’ll put in an order later today or early tomorrow without doing another full analysis. Price has overall been up, though it’s somewhat leveld out. Looking at the 2 hour chart, price has somewhat been moving sideways, but the argument that a reversal then a return to the upside has occurred.
Over the last couple of days, price has made a relatively strong push to the downside, but that downward movment seems stalled. Price reached a key area, and has struggled to break through it. RSI, also, has stalled and is starting to slope upward (the slower line anyway).
I don’t love taking bases in the opposite direction than the move immediately preceding the base; coupled with the fact that RSI is still technically below 50, I’m not ready to take this trade. When/if price makes another push up, though, pulls RSI back above 50 and provides an entry pattern, I’ll set orders and trade this long.
I’m not sure if it’s because it’s Monday, or my anxiety or what, but I feel like I’m good for today. I looked at roughly 10 charts, found 4 I liked a bit, and even put out a couple orders (that didn’t trigger). Sometimes trading means not taking trades, and that’s okay. I’ve got my eye on a couple things, and I’ll journal those if I end up trading them. Otherwise, I’m hoping to come back happier and with more energy to tackle the markets tomorrow!
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis. And stay tuned for more Forex market trades and analysis!