Welcome to another entry into my investing and trading blog. Here, I go through technical analysis to determine trading opportunities, primarily in the Forex market. I also discuss any trades that I end up making myself. Today, I’m analyzing the market for November 29th, 2023. Read on to see what the technicals are showing me.
I’m tired. On the bright side, I got up, meditated and had a protein shake all before the market opened; but for some reason, I’m beat. I’ve got coffee, though, so all I can do is power through. Let’s have a good trading day!
EUR/JPY – Short
I’m looking at this this morning, and considering shorting it, when I realized I looked at taking this long yesterday. It has been up all month, and has only been on a couple-day pullback; but at the same time I could almost argue a reversal starting back around the 15th. And also, I started my analysis on the 2 hour chart this morning, hoping to trade the 5 minute chart, which wasn’t the case yesterday. I’ll stick to my current outlook.
Like I mentioned, price has been trending down since roughly the 15th, but has been moreso since the 25th. Since roughly midnight last night, this has made a small rally, where price reached the MA in the middle of the bands, and appears to be dropping from that level.
Dropping down to the 5 minute chart, price had a rally about an hour ago, based a little, then pushed down through the lows of that base. As of right now, I’m not seeing an actual pattern to trade in to. I like this short, though, so I’ll keep an eye on it, hoping one forms.
USD/JPY – Short
Dollar-Yen is interesting this morning. Price has been pushing down since about the 15th, bottoming out around the 21st. From there, it had a bit of a rally, then rounded back to the downside pushing through the lows made on the 21st yesterday afternoon. From there, price has made a fairly shrarp rally, getting up to the 20MA, and is already failing from there.
The primary thing giving me pause here is the that RSI is nearly already oversold, so I’m not sure how much more downward pressure there is here. I like it to the downside, but I can’t say I love it, so I’ll hold off for now.
GBP/AUD – Short
I’m not actually going to trade this, but if I were to do a true “mean reversion” play, this looks like it’d be a great opportunity. Price has been sideways for about 2 weeks now, and over the last day has rocketed to the highs of the range. I’d expect price to drop from here and head back to the middle/lows of the range.
I’m going to set a couple of alerts/lines to see how this ends up playing out and if I had the right idea.
EUR/AUD – Short
This, at first glance, looks like another great setup. Price has been pushing down nearly all month, and looking at the 2 hour chart, price has been on a bit of a rally starting about 14 hours ago. Price reached the upper band and the EMA, and appears to be pulling back off of those highs.
That said, on it’s rise price did take out a couple of resistance areas and even formed a higher swing low (and, thus, a subsequent higher high). Additionally, the RSI lines are sloping upward and the faster line is above 50. I like this short more than I like it long, but there are some conflicting signals here.
Dropping to the 5 minute chart, I do see price appearing to roll back to the downside, which is a pretty bearish sign. And there’s a nice bear rally that’s formed, with a 2 R:R target that looks fairly realistic.
Hesitation kills. I ran the numbers here, but didn’t commit to pulling the trigger. Price dropped strong after that bear-rally, and this almost definitely would’ve been a winning trade. I can’t be fearful like this in the markets. Moving on.
Update: It’s been about 15 minutes since I typed the above, and I just wanted to see how this was moving. Price has rallied strong , and is currently up near where my stop-loss would be. Price never reached 1R. Turns out, it was a good thing I didn’t trade this.
I think I’m going to call it here for the morning. I made a decent profit in one trade — my biggest single profit in probably over a year. I’m still building confidence and making sure my system works, and I don’t want to give any money back. I have other work I want to get done, too, so I’m going to do that.
I might, depending on time, revisit the charts later and look for an overnight trade or something. But, I looked at 4 pairs, made one trade and it resulted in ~25 pips of profit!
Thanks for reading! What did you think about today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments. And stay tuned here for more financial market analysis and trades.