Welcome to my blog. This blog acts as my financial trading journal, where I discuss what I see in the markets and talk through the trades I make. Read on to see my thoughts on certain currency pairs for November 28th, 2023.
Decent start to the morning. I got out of bed at a good time, meditated and was ready to trade around 8:15. I felt like that was a little early, though, and wanted to wait until the US session started, so I cleaned up a bit and now it’s 8:40 and I’m ready to dive in.
GBP/JPY – Long
This looks decent already. I’m on a 4 hour chart and price has been pushing up since the 20th, peaked last Friday, and made a couple-day pullback. I don’t really trade based on Elliott Wave theory, but this looks like the completion of an “A-B-C” Elliott Wave pullback; and it might be poised to return to the upside.
On top of that, the Bollinger Bands are squeezing a bit and price got close to the lower band before pushing back up, and RSI is just above 50 and not overbought. A lot of signs point to strength here.
That said, though, this “A-B-C” patter could also be signs of reversal, especially given the fact that price pushed below the SMA and is having trouble breaking back above it.
Overall, the trend is up, so I think I’m comfortable looking for some longs here. At initial glance, I don’t see any great patterns to trade in to, so I’m going to mark this on my chart and revisit later.
EUR/JPY – Long
This looks similar to the above, maybe a bit better. I’m still on the 4 hour chart and, again, price has been up overall, at least since the end of October. There was a pullback from the 15th – 20th, but price has been pushing up again from there. There was yet another, smaller, pullback through yesterday, but that pullback touched the lower band and price has been pushing back up. The RSI is essentially right at 50 (the slower line is just above, the faster one just below) and sloping up; and I even see a bit of a base here on the 4 hour chart.
I’m going to look for long entries here and see if I can find a good R:R.
AUD/JPY – Long
Once again, it’s JPY pairs that have the highest volume. I’m not always exactly sure what to do in these scenarios because on one hand I don’t want to necessarily trade the same currency, but on the other hand, if that currency moves significantly, I could multiply my profits. For now, I’m going to focus on charts and price action and not worry about doubling up on a currency (though, I will make sure I don’t trade the same currency as a base in one pair and cross in the other pair).
Anyway, back to this pair. Price has largely been up since the end of October, though there have been some sizable pullbacks within this rise. Price peaked on the 15th, pulled back pretty strongly, then pushed back up to those highs over the last 1.5 trading days. Through most of yesterday, price made a small pullback, and is pushing back up a bit today. It hasn’t quite gotten up to the highs from earlier this month, but it appears to have strength.
I was nearly all in, ready to look for entries here, then I realized the fact that those highs I keep mentioning is essentially a fairly strong resistance area; and I don’t want to trade directly into a resistance area.
I think I’m going to leave this alone for now actually, and revisit either later today or tomorrow.
EUR/CAD – Long
I started running numbers here and realized I never talked through this pair. Starting on the 4 hour chart, price has been pushing up steadily since mid-October, with not a ton of pullbacks within this rise. Price peaked a week ago, pulled back for about a day and has been moving sideways since.
This sideways movement has caused the Bollinger Bands to squeeze and price bounce off of the lows a couple of times. Today, price is bouncing off of the lower band again and has pushed above the SMA. It’s currently failing at the EMA/upper band, but that looks like a pullback that I can trade in to.
The primary thing giving me pause here is that this trade would be trading into resistance; but if price is returning to the upside, this is a great place to get in. I’ve already run the numbers and I’ve got an exact 2 R:R, at entry/stop/target levels I’m comfortable with.
The pullback, as I’m typing this, is becoming deeper than I’d love, but as of right now it still looks viable. I’ll set the order and monitor and cancel it if price starts to move in ways I don’t like.
Thanks for reading! Let me know in the comments what you thought about today’s analysis and if you were able to capitalize on any movements. And, as always, stay tuned for more financial trades and analysis.