Welcome to today’s entry into my financial markets trading and analysis blog/journal. Read on to see my thoughts on various currency pairs for November 15th, 2023.
I didn’t have the greatest start to my day. I snoozed my alarm more times than I wanted to, so I got out of bed late. And now, the markets open and I haven’t meditated yet. I really need to force myself out of bed earlier. It’s not like those extra 20-30 minutes of laying there with my eyes closed (not even asleep) make me feel any more rested. I’ll try.
My late start is making me feel a bit anxious/unprepared for the trading day, but I’ve got to power through. Let’s dive in to the charts and see where opportunities lie.
GBP/JPY – Neutral
This based pretty nicely after the large push up yesterday, but pushed out of the base to the downside at the start of the day today. That drop wasn’t very significant — it didn’t take out any support areas, other than the one that made up the base, and didn’t push down to any key areas that existed prior to that one. Price is already showing signs of rallying after this pullback, but I’m not comfortable taking this long. The spike yesterday pushed above the upper band and put RSI well into overbought territory.
Would I be surprised if this gains some more strength and makes another decent push up? No. But, it’s not within my parameters to trade with indicators suggesting such overbought conditions. I could also argue a power-reversal to the downside, but it’s also not within my rules to trade against the overall trend (which has been up all month).
This may be the highest volume pair right now, but it’s not moving within my rules, so I’m going to leave it alone.
EUR/JPY – Neutral
Similar to GBP/JPY, this based most of yesterday after the huge spike up, pulled back at the start of the day today and has started rallying after the pullback. Unlike GBP/JPY, though, this rally has taken price back up to near the highs that were created yesterday. Unfortunately, though, that price is near the upper band and RSI is fully overbought. I don’t believe a significant target, making a good R:R, is feasible here, so I’m going to stay away.
GBP/AUD – Short
This has mostly been trending up since the beginning of this month, but over the last couple days looks like it’s reversing to the downside. There was a strong push down yesterday morning, a small base throughout the day, and then another strong push down this morning.
There was a bit of a bear rally that formed this morning (as evidenced by the long lower wick on the most recent closed candle, 4h chart), with price appearing to return to the downside. It hasn’t broken the lows that were created before the rally, but it’s still heading downward. Additionally, while price is riding/pushing through the lower band, RSI has started to cross below 50 and isn’t oversold yet.
Overall, I don’t hate this to the downside, but upon first glance, the R:R isn’t there. I’ll mark this on my list/keep an eye on it to see if it moves in a way that makes me comfortable trading it.
AUD/JPY – Neutral
This is making a strong push up, continuing it’s movement from yesterday. Everything looks overbought, though, so I think I’m going to stay away. Even if I were to try to fade this move, it’s been up so much, who knows when a reversal will happen. We’ll see how it’s moving tomorrow.
USD/JPY – Long
This is interesting this morning. I’m starting on the 4h chart, and price appears to be pushing back to the upside a bit after the huge drop yesterday. Price has taken out yesterday’s highs, and has pushed up to the middle of the Bollinger Bands. I will say that price has seemingly failed at the 20 MA, but that might be an entry opportunity.
The push down brought price to the lower band, and took RSI into oversold area, but this morning’s rally has the RSI lines appearing to be returning to the upside. The “fail” at the moving average gives me a bit of pause here, but there are a good amount of signs of strength, so I’ll drop down to lower time-frames to look for entries and hope for a good R:R!
EUR/AUD – Neutral
Euro-Aussie is the next highest volume pair and I already want to leave it alone. I looked to short this yesterday, but ended up cancelling my order by the end of the day; but when I looked at the chart this morning, price had made a strong push down nearly hitting my target. It’s hard to say exactly where I would’ve gotten out of this one, but it would’ve been a win. I guess I’ll just give myself a small pat on the back for having the direction and depth correct, and continue moving forward looking for opportunities.
After reaching my target, price made a strong bounce, but has already made an equally strong drop back to those levels. There’s a lot of whipsawing going on here, plus price is basically on the lower band and RSI is oversold, so I’m good with staying away.
I’ve got 2 pairs singled out to look for opportunities, and I don’t like much of anything else I’ve seen. I’m going to try to keep my eye on those pairs, hopefully find a good trade, and prioritize catching up on my backlog of posts. Just keep swimming, focus on work and remain disciplined!
Let me know, in the comments, what you thought about today’s analysis and if you were able to take advantage of any strong moves. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more financial market analysis and trades!