Welcome to my financial markets journal/blog. This is where I discuss what I see in various markets (primarily Forex) and talk through the trades I make. Today, I’m analyzing various currency pairs for November 14th 2023.
I’m on the strugglebus again this morning, and I largely don’t know why. Maybe just the fact that we went to sleep kind of late last night, so I’m tired this morning? IDK. Other than that, I’m not hung over or anything, I just don’t feel great. Anxious is the only way I can describe it and man am I tired of feeling like this every day.
Complaining isn’t going to fix it though. So what do I do? The only thing I can do: hope that the work works out. Not doing anything is 100% guaranteed not to produce anything for me, so I might as well do something, even if there’s only a 1% chance things will work out. Better than 0%.
I’m not sure what happened this morning. The only thing I can see is that US CPI data came out this morning, but it looks like both USD and JPY were strongly affected. The Yen pairs and Dollar pairs have some pretty outsized moves that happened this morning, so it might be a tough trading day. Or it’ll be a fantastic mean reversion day, as prices (if prices) normalize.
I had a protein shake, meditated, etc. and I’m ready to dive in to charts and find opportunities to make some money.
GBP/JPY – Neutral
Like I mentioned, all of the JPY pairs made strong moves this morning, and this is the one with the highest volume. Price is up a lot this morning, it’s riding the upper band and RSI is well into overbought territory. This would be a great candidate for my mean reversion strategy if taking counter-trend trades was within my parameters. But, since it’s not, and the prior trend to this up move was also up, I’m going to leave this alone for now. If I don’t see anything else I like, I might revisit shorting this.
EUR/JPY – Neutral
Right now, I could nearly say the exact same thing about this as I said about GBP/JPY. I’ll leave them alone, and look for something that’s made an outsized move in the opposite direction of it’s trend. I’ll revisit if I don’t see anything that fits the bill.
GBP/AUD – Long
This could be interesting, looking at the 4h chart. Price has been trending up since the beginning of the month, made a decent base at the end of last week, and broke the highs of that base and made a decent move up yesterday. Today, price has reverted, has pushed to within that base and is currently hovering around the highs. This push down also wicked to the rising 20 MA.
Overall, the trend is up, RSI is above 50 and the slower line is still sloping up, price is in the middle of the Bollinger Bands and is bouncing off of an MA, so I’m going to look at lower time-frames for entries.
EUR/AUD – Short/Neutral
This had largely been trending up since the beginning of the month, but may be reversing to the downside. Over the past 4 days, price has formed a bit of a double-top and today, price is heading down and has taken out a couple of key levels. That said, though, price hasn’t made a pattern suggesting a reversal — there’s no subsequent lower high, or a retest — so I’m going to hold off for now. I’ll label it and keep an eye on it just in case, though.
USD/JPY – Long/Neutral
This is interesting this morning. Price had been trending up for the last 10 days, but the big spike today was down in this pair. Price dropped hard, pushed through the 20 MA and the lower band to reach the 50 MA. The RSI pushed out of overbought, the faster line pushing well below 50 and the slower line just dropping below 70.
This was such a strong drop this morning that a return to the upside seems less likely, but if the uptrend is going to return, this is a great time to get in. I’ll keep an eye on this to see if price makes a move that suggests strength coming back in to the pair.
GBP/USD – Short/Neutral
This is making an incredible spike right now.
Since roughly the 6th, price has been pushing down, but price bottomed out last week and started to make a small push up. It was relatively steady until this morning when it pushed up over 200 pips before noon. If I zoom out to a daily/weekly chart, there are signs of price reversing to the upside as there was a higher high and higher low prior to this spike, and this spike made a subsequent higher high.
That said, this move is outsized, and I don’t feel comfortable trading this long here. In fact, it looks too outsized for me. I’m expecting the move to exhaust and price to return to the downside. When that’ll happen, and how far it’ll drop is yet to be determined. I’ll keep my eye on this today and see if it behaves in a way that makes me want to trade it short.
That’s all of the pairs for today that are above 80K in volume; I’ve got 4 I want to keep my eye on, so I’m going to do that. Going forward, I think that if I plan to not trade a pair, I’m not really going to talk about it. I’m only going to discuss pairs that look like they have opportunity. This way, I won’t waste too much time looking at something I don’t plan on trading anyway, and thus I’ll be more likely to find pairs/patterns that I do like enough to trade more quickly. I think that will work out, we’ll see how it goes.
Thanks for reading! What did you think about today’s analysis? Let me know in the comments. And stay tuned for more financial market analysis and trades.