Welcome to my blog! Follow along as I talk through my view of various financial markets and my trading methodology. Today, I had a bit of a rough morning, but still took the time to analyze the markets. Read on to see my thought on how the Forex pairs are behaving on October 30th 2023.
I’ve been going back and forth in my mind about whether or not I should start looking through charts now or wait until a few minutes after the open to let the market “breathe” a little. I feel like everything I’ve learned has taught me to let it “breathe” so I’m going to do that.
I’ve already had an Alka-Seltzer (we had a couple drinks last night — but that said, I got out of bed before 8 and I don’t feel too bad) and have meditated; I’m just going to use this opportunity to clean the kitchen because it’s giving me a bit of anxiety. I hate that it does and I don’t love that it comes to this most mornings, but here we are. Patience. Positivity. B.L.A.C.K.E.R. Clean the kitchen, stay in a good headspace, and get ready to come back and dominate the markets.
First off, volumes are low this morning. I’m not sure if it’s an end-of-the-month thing, or a beginning-of-the-week thing, but no pairs are over 100K in volume right now. That just means I’ll be trading slightly lower volumes than in the prior weeks, but also that I may not look at as many pairs this morning. I’m still trying to find the balance between working for works sake & potentially overtrading, and doing enough work that I feel accomplished. No matter, I’m ready to dive in to the charts and see if I can find some opportunity!
GBP/AUD – Neutral
I was bullish in this pair over the last couple of weeks, but I’d say I’m officially changing my outlook. Over the past week or so, this has definitely been trending down. The daily chart might be suggesting further weakness in the near future, but since I’m trading the 5/15 min. charts, I’m not going to worry about that right now. On the 2h chart, price has pushed down to the lower band, and RSI is sitting just above over-sold levels.
Given my current strategy, I’d want to look at this long given it’s current price action; but I’m not sure that’s the right outlook. I don’t think I want to trade counter-trend per-se, I want to trade continuations of trends, just not breakouts. Unless I decide to short this on the hourly chart or something, I’ll leave this alone for today. I will set an alert, though, to let me know if I was on the right track at all with the thoughts of a long play.
GBP/JPY – Neutral
There’s been a lot of choppiness here, and I think I want to stay away. Price had largely been down over the past 4 or 5 days, and even reached/broke through a support area when the Forex market opened back up for the week. From there, though (overnight last night) price made a sharp rise for a few hours and then at 8 dropped just as sharply, taking out the gains from the prior 2 candles.
Overall, this looks more sideways than anything, and with the large swings price has been making, I don’t want to be involved. We’ll see how price moves in the coming days.
EUR/JPY – Neutral
Today’s activity here looks very similar to GBP/JPY. So I think I’m going to stay away. The only difference in these pairs is the fact that I see more of an overall uptrend here, whereas GBP/JPY shows me more sideways movement. Regardless, I don’t like this price action, so I’m going to stay away for today.
EUR/AUD – Long
Overall, I’d argue that this has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the month. And while this has shown a lower low and a lower high since the 24th, the most recent low is higher than the prior one. I still see bullishness here. On the 2 hour chart, price has reached the lower band and started to push up, and is sitting in the middle of the bands. RSI isn’t quite above 5o yet, but it’s right near that area and heading up. Enough signs point toward bullishness here, so I think I’m going do pick a target then drop down to the 5 min. chart to look for entries.
AUD/JPY – Neutral
Something must have happened overnight in JPY because all of the Yen pairs made huge moves up for the few hours before the open, and have all reverted back to the levels they were at before the spike. This pair is no different. The moves here are too wild for me, so I’m going to leave Yen pairs alone for today.
EUR/CAD – Neutral/Short
We’re getting into 60K volume, so quite a bit lighter than what I’d usually trade; but it’s all that’s available. I think I’m only going to look at one or two more pairs (including this one) for today.
This looks like a pretty strong candidate for a breakout trade, but I’m not trading breakouts anymore, so I think I’m going to leave this alone. Price has been very strong for at least two weeks (I’m looking at the 2 hour chart, so the trend may be longer, but this is what I see right now) and peaked and pulled back a bit on Friday. This morning, though, price has rallied again and has reached the highs it made on Friday; and on the 5 minute chart, is in a nice high base.
That said, though, price is also approaching the upper band, and the RSI is pushing into overbought levels. This has the makings of a trade that would push up just enough to trigger my entry, and then reverse pretty hard to the downside. In fact, I might actually short this to the middle of the Bollinger Bands when/if this shows signs of making a small correction.
There are a lot of conflicting signals here, so I think I’m just going to stay away for now. I’ll set alerts though to let me know if either of my ideas were warranted. And, if price does start to meaningfully drop, and creates a tradable pattern, I’m not ruling out the possibility of shorting this in the near future. We’ll see how it plays out.
GBP/USD – Long/Neutral
Pound-Dollar I just clicked on and saw something I liked, so I think this is where I’m going to stop for the day. I might even put in another entry order. It’s an interesting one, though, so I’m not sure what to do. Price bottomed out around the 26th, but made a sharp rise later that day and moved sideways for the next couple of days save for some volatility that came in near the end of the week last week.
That volatility made a spike outside of the range, and this morning, price has risen back up to that level. On the 2 hour chart, price is making a strong spike, is up against the upper band and appears to be stalling around a pretty strong key level. Prices riding the upper/lower bands during a trend is pretty common, and RSI is just above 50, so things don’t appear to be overbought. I’m hesitant, though, because this is more of a breakout trade than anything.
I’m going to run the numbers here and potentially put in a buy order. I don’t think I’ll be tempted to make that move, though, because I can already tell my target is pretty close. If the numbers do work out, though, I’ll take this trade with an even smaller position size than I have been.
Thanks for reading! There’s a lot to process today, so hopefully I’m able to capitalize. Let me know in the comments what you thought of today’s analysis and/or if you saw anything different from what I saw. And stay tuned for more market analysis and trades!