Welcome to my Forex market trading analysis for September 20th, 2023. It’s been an interesting week — I’ve been traveling since last Wednesday, and with all of the travel, I was too beat to trade yesterday. So, this is my first day back in a while.
I’m feeling pretty good, though, ready to analyze the markets, and ready to find some opportunities to make some money! Without further ado, let’s dive in to the baskets.
USD – Short
Price peaked back on the 7th, but made a pretty sharp drop from there, making a new swing low. Price then rose, but made a lower high before pushing down again. Today, price is sitting around a support area that was also the lows of the swing low I just mentioned.
Dropping down to a 1 hour chart, price looks like it’s ready to break that support area, and there’s a decent amount of room between this level and the next resistance level, so it could make for a good short. I’ll take a look at individual charts here.
Today’s Pairs
AUD/USD – Long
NZD/USD – Long
EUR/AUD – Short
EUR/NZD – Short
GBP/AUD – Short
GBP/NZD – Short
AUD/JPY – Long
NZD/JPY – Long
CAD – Neutral
About a week ago, price pushed up and broke the highs of the range that it had been trading in for a few weeks. That break was significant, as price continued to push up for the next week until it peaked yesterday. Prior to the peak, price broke a pretty strong resistance area, and ended up stalling at the next one.
Price has pulled back from there, and is now hovering around the key area that was broken yesterday — appearing to retest that area. Dropping to the hourly chart, though, and things don’t look as rosy. Price has pulled back fairly significantly and has made lower lows and lower highs.
I was considering this a long play initially, but seeing how it’s trading on the 1h chart, I’m not so sure. I’d like more confirmation that price is returning to the upside. I’ll leave this alone for this morning unless there’s nothing else I like, then I’ll maybe cautiously look at this long.\
EUR – Short/Neutral
Starting on the daily chart, price has seemingly rolled over from it’s peak in Mid-August; and has made subsequent lower lows and lower highs. Over the last couple of days, price has made a small rally. But that’s just formed yet another lower high before price pushed back down again.
Dropping down to the 2 hour chart, the rally and subsequent drop looks more rangebound than it does on the daily chart. That said I also see a bit of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with price sitting near the lows of the range, suggesting continued weakness. Price is sitting a bit above the lows here in the basket, but it may be ready to break on individual charts. I’ll take a look at this short, but I’ll do my best not to chase.
GBP – Short
This has been weak, really, since the beginning of this month, with almost no rallies within this drop. Today, price has made another strong push down, reaching the lows of a support area that’s held up in mid-June and mid-to-late-July. From those lows, price is making a bit of a rally, which might be the perfect movement to short in to.
Dropping down to the 1 hour chart, price looks to me like it’s making a perfect bear rally. So I’m definitely going to look at this short on individual charts.
JPY – Short
I’ve been bearish JPY for a while, but it hasn’t given me a lot of opportunities to trade — though I’ve tried. Since early July, price had been moving mostly sideways, with some fairly wild swings within. I could argue more of a falling wedge than a range.
Before the first strong rally back in July, price bottomed out. But even when price pushed back down, never quite got to that low. Yesterday, price finally made it down to that low, and it’s already been broken this morning. This is very weak, and not near oversold levels, so I’ll definitely look at this short. I’m just hoping I don’t miss the move.
AUD – Long/Neutral
Aussie has been rising since the beginning of this month, making higher highs and higher lows. Today, price made a strong push up and has taken out the most recent swing high. Price looks strong here, but the area it’s pushing up in to has a lot of chop, and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to find a target with a strong R:R.
I’m still looking at the basket, though, which is only supposed to inform direction, and I can make a final decision on individual charts. I’ll take a look at this long this morning and try not to chase.
NZD – Long
Between early August and today, price has created a rounded bottom and is pushing to the upside. This morning, price has made a pretty strong push up breaking a pretty strong key area and is currently stalling at the next one. Dropping down to the 2 hour chart, price still looks strong and it looks like it may even be forming a base around the key area it’s stalled at.
Overall, this looks strong, and I’ll look for longs here. Hopefully in charts with less chop than the basket is showing.
CHF – Neutral
A) I have a bias on nearly all of the currencies already, B) While there was a break to the downside, price has made a strong push up after bottoming out, getting back into the range it’s been in for the last couple of days and C) spreads in CHF pairs tend to be very wide, so I’ll hold off.
Thanks for reading! Today’s shaping up to be a busy day. Almost all of the currencies seem to be moving, so I just have to find the best pair. Let me know in the comments if you found today’s Forex analysis helpful, or if you have any additional questions. And, as always, stay tuned for more trades and analysis.