Welcome to my trading and speculation blog. Here, I talk about what I see in various markets and how I think different securities are going to move. Lately, it’s been primarily Forex. Read on to see how I believe the major currencies are going to move in the coming hours and days.
September 11th, 2023 Forex Analysis
Despite waking up at the right time, I’m starting late today. I’m tired/exhausted and couldn’t get out of bed right away. I did a little cleaning, had a protein shake, used the bathroom and now I’m getting started about 15 minutes after the open. I’m not day-trading, though, so it should be fine.
I don’t feel great — like I said, I’m tired and exhausted — but beyond that, my anxiety is on the higher end today. Not so high that I’m not going to work, but it’s pretty high. Hopefully it subsides a bit as I look through charts. Fingers crossed.
I’m on the struggle bus. It’s been another 10 minutes since that last sentence and this one. I’ve done nearly nothing. I’m going to dive in now and hope for the best.
USD – Long/Neutral
I’m somewhat bullish here for a few reasons. First, price has been strong for close to two months now, and while it’s been down for a couple of days, it’s stalling at a prior resistance (now support) area, and doesn’t appear to be reversing. The second reason is, as I just mentioned, price is stalling at a key area making a new higher low. Which appears to me to be well within the parameters of an uptrend.
Today’s Pairs
EUR/USD – Short
NZD/USD – Short
USD/CHF – Long
Lastly, and this is more of a thought than an analysis of this chart, I feel like I’ve noticed that price has moved in the opposite direction throughout the day than the direction I expected in the morning. I’ve considered “fading” opening moves, and this looks like a good candidate to try that.
Price is down pretty considerably, but that’s where the fading comes in. But since that’s a fairly new strategy/thought, I’ll be cautious here. Plus, individual charts might look different, and there may be some opportunity out there. I’ll check, but I’ll be cautious.
CAD – Neutral
In addition to the strong support and resistance areas making up the highs and lows of this range, there’s a strong key level right in the middle. For the past couple of days, price has struggled to really push through that key area in the middle, and has been well above the lows of the range.
This morning, price has made a strong push down, but hasn’t been able to break through that middle key area (and even if it does, there’s a lot of chop in the middle of this range, here). I’ll leave this alone for today — and if I do decide to try to take a range-bound play here, I’ll wait until price is bouncing off of the highs or lows of the range.
EUR – Short/Neutral
This will be another fading play if I make any moves here. Price has been pushing down technically since ~8/20, but really since 8/30 as there was a long rally from the 23rd – 30th. At the beginning of this month, price stalled at a support area and rallied a bit, but pushed back down to that support area last week.
When the Forex market opened back up for the week yesterday, price pushed through that support area, bottomed out, and started rallying. That rally is what I’m seeing today, and price has reached that prior support area and it’s now acting as resistance. When/if price continues it’s downtrend, it could fall pretty significantly. And the earlier I can get in, the better. The only issue is that I need to be careful not to get faked out, which is a definite possibility.
I’ll look at this short this morning, but I’ll be cautious about it.
GBP – Neutral
This is giving me a bit of a fit this morning. On one hand, I could see a “fade” play here as price has looked overall weak, but has rallied over the last several hours. That said, though, the rally was strong and price pushed through the “retest” area pretty significantly.
There’s another key area that price did end up stalling at, and pushing down from. But now price is stalling at that resistance area it broke — it’s now acting as support. This is sitting in the middle of the range it’s been in for the last couple of trading days, and I don’t see a lot of conviction in either direction, so I’ll hold off.
JPY – Neutral
I no longer have a directional bias here and am officially saying this is ranging. Right now, price is sitting on a key area right in the middle of the range. I don’t see a strong indication of one direction or the other, so I’ll leave this alone for today. I’ll look to do a range-bound play here in the coming days when price bounces off of either the highs or lows.
AUD – Neutral
On one hand, this has technically been pushing down since mid-June with some significant periods of sideways movement within this push down. There’s a strong support area that held up in late April, late May, and early August that was broken around August 15th/16th.
Price rallied form there, back to within the area that made up the support area that was broken mid-August. At the beginning of this month, price broke that level to the downside again, pushed about half-way to the prior lows, and rallied again from there; and that support area is acting more as resistance over the last month. If price breaks back down through this key area, it could be very bearish.
On the other hand, with price rallying to the key area, pushing down making a higher low, then pushing back up; there’s a bit of indication that this is reversing to the upside.
I can’t really say this is ranging, and I can make a case to trade this in both directions, so I’ll hold off until it’s movement is a bit more clear.
NZD – Short/Neutral
This has been ranging for nearly a month now; and right now price is sitting on a key area right in the middle of the range. There’s a good amount of room to the bottom of the range, so this could make a significant push down in the coming days.
The key area it’s stalled at is pretty strong, though, so there might be nothing there. I’ll be cautious, but I’ll see if this looks like it’s ready to make a significant push on individual charts.
CHF – Short
This has steadily been rolling over to the downside over the last month, and looks like it no longer has the strength it had for the several months before that. Right now, in it’s basket on the 4 hour chart, price is basing around a support area that was strong resistance a couple of months ago.
This could be a retest and price might be building momentum for another bull run. But over the last couple of weeks it’s definitely made lower highs and lower lows. And the low base around a prior key area looks bearish to me. I’ll take a look at individual charts.
Wow. That took nearly 2 hours, which is way longer than usual. Hopefully I didn’t miss any moves I would’ve caught had I finished sooner. Can’t go back, though, so all I can do is try to find great setups, follow my rules, try not to chase anything and just keep swimming.
Conclusion
It’s been a few hours and, once again, price in individual charts have seemingly been moving in the opposite direction than I thought for the day. I thought maybe fading the baskets was the move, but that doesn’t seem to be working either. I think what I’m going to do going forward is either A) do my RSW analysis on the 1 hour/2 hour charts instead of daily/4h. Or, I’ll still start with daily and work my way all the way down to the 1h chart.
If I’m trading 1h charts I suppose I should do my analysis on the same time-frame. It may prolong RSW in the mornings, but I think it’ll give me a better idea of how things are moving. We’ll see how it works out.
Thanks for checking out another one of my blog posts! Let me know in the comments what you thought of this analysis, and if you were able to capitalize on any moves. As always, stay tuned for more Forex trades and market analysis.