Between Starfield coming out last night and my girlfriend going out for work, I went to bed a little late last night. So, I’m a little sluggish this morning; but truthfully, I feel better than expected.
I am late, though — I haven’t even started diving in to the Forex baskets and the market is already open. Fortunately, I let the market breathe a bit anyway, so based on how I trade, it shouldn’t make too big of a difference. I just prefer to be earlier.
Without further ado — as I feel the anxiety setting in — let’s dive in to the charts and analyze the market for today.
USD – Long/Neutral
Yesterday, price ended up pushing above Tuesday’s highs, despite being down in the Morning. That said, it did so only barely, and failed to hold on to the gains. This morning, price has technically pushed above that price again, but, dropping down to the 4 hour chart, this is largely just moving sideways.
On one hand this is in a high base, so I like it long. But since it’s failed to hold on to any gains on pushes up, I’m cautious. I’ll look at this long and try not to chase.
Today’s Pairs
USD/CAD – Long
EUR/USD – Short
GBP/USD – Short
AUD/CAD – Long
EUR/AUD – Short
GBP/AUD – Short
CAD – Short – Range-bound
Price looked strong early this week, as it made a huge push up to the top of the range. But it failed to break out of that range. Today, price is pushing down from the highs of the range, and dropping to the 4 hour chart, appears to be double-topping.
The “Neck” of the double-top is at a pretty strong key level, too, so if it breaks that it could make a strong run to the downside. I’ll take a look at this short this morning on individual charts.
EUR – Short
This morning, price made a strong push down after a couple-day rally and is stalling on a key level. Price is currently rallying off of that level — and this is on a 4 hour chart, so it may be a deeper rally than I realize — which might make a good pattern to short in to.
As I’m typing this, the rally is continuing, so it might not be a great play. But if it breaks that level and I miss it, I’ll be upset. I’ll take a look at this short, and try not to chase/realize the extended movements.
GBP – Short
At the start of the day today, price made a strong push down taking out the key level that held up through the second half of last month until today. This was a strong break and it pushed down quite a bit — it might be extended. This is in a mini low-base, now, on the 4h chart, which might be a good thing if it’s not too extended. I’ll take a look at individual charts and hope I find a good opportunity.
JPY – Neutral
This has been tough for a while, and I think I’m going to leave it alone again for this week. Price made a pretty strong push up this morning, and is currently stalling at the key area that’s acted both as strong support and resistance in the past. There’s still some room for this to run to the top of the range, but it might not do so. I could also definitely see this bouncing off of this area and pushing back down.
Since I can see both sides, and don’t have a strong conviction of one over the other, I’ll just leave it alone for today.
AUD – Long/Neutral
The rally that I called out yesterday continued this morning, though price is dropping right now. This current drop, though, is staying above the prior resistance (now support) area that was created during this rally. This has overall been in a downtrend for the last several months, but it’s shown some bouts of strength within that. Over the last couple of days, it’s showing another one of those bouts of strength, but it’s hard to say how far up this will push.
Actually, if this rallies again and breaks the highs, it could be a good long trade. I’m just not really seeing that move. Price would have to rally strong, take out that resistance area and then make a tradable pattern. On the other hand, though, this is the basket and the pattern might be evident already on individual charts. On second thought, I’ll take a look at this long, but I’ll be cautious about it.
NZD – Neutral
This has largely been ranging for the last few weeks. And while price has made a nice push up, it’s currently right in the middle of the range. On top of that, price is pushing down pretty strong off of the key area in the middle of that range. The pullback is very deep, so I think the long play is out of the picture here; and it’s in the midst of a mini-up-trend, so I’m not going to short it. I’ll hold off here and revisit next week.
CHF – Neutral
This has been strong for a long time, but over the last, say, month, looks like it’s rolling over to the downside. And within this “rolling over”, there have been some significant rallies. Price has been pushing down for the last several hours, but hasn’t really broken any key areas. And the last push down was quickly nullified by a rally (on the 4 hour chart). I don’t see a lot of strong conviction in either direction here, so I’ll hold off.
Thanks for reading! It looks like there’s a lot of opportunity out there today, let me know in the comments if you were able to capitalize. And stay tuned for more market analysis and trades.