Welcome back to my trading blog, I hope you all had a good Labor Day weekend! Today, I’m going to provide a Forex market analysis — analyzing the major pairs — for September 5th, 2023.
Today’s kind of weird. I got up and out of bed at a good time, and I actually meditated before anything else. But for some reason, I still feel a lot of resistance.. I need to push through. I NEED TO PUSH THROUGH! Let’s just start diving in to the baskets.
USD – Long
This has broken out to new highs this morning, and they’re new highs all year. Price has pulled back a bit, but is still sitting above the resistance area that was broken on this spike this morning, so I’ll definitely look at this long.
CAD – Short – Rangebound
This is interesting this morning. Price has made a strong spike, and has taken out some of the resistance areas that have held up within this range; but hasn’t quite gotten up to the overall highs of the range. Since price isn’t quite at the highs, it doesn’t look like it’s ready to break out. And since I don’t have a range-bound trading strategy to short this off of the highs, I’ll just hold off for today.
Today’s Pairs
USD/CAD – Long
EUR/USD – Short
GBP/USD – Short
AUD/USD – Short
Update: I decided I’m going to start figuring out a range-bound strategy/practice range-bound trades and hope for success. This is up strong on the day, but it’s too strong for my liking. Even if this were threatening to break out, I’d think it was extended. Within a range, though, I could see this pushing to the downside today, and maybe over the next couple days. I’ll look at this short.
EUR – Short/Neutral
Euro is interesting this morning as well. Price has been strong all year, but may be making reversal moves to the downside. It reached a new high in the middle of this month, but largely moved sideways from there. Price broke the lows of that range on the 22nd/23rd, but rallied for about a week after that.
That rally didn’t get quite to the highs of the prior range, though, creating a lower high. There was a strong drop from there, taking out the lows from the 23rd, making a new lower low. Over the past 2 days, price has made a small rally, but is failing to hold on to it’s gains today, and is sitting closer to the lows.
If this is a power reversal, and price is headed to the downside, this could make a pretty deep run. I’ll definitely take a look at individual charts to see how it’s moving.
GBP – Short – Rangebound
This had been strong all year, up until roughly the middle of August. Price moved sideways from there, and then dropped out of the range on the 23rd. Since then, price has been moving sideways again, albeit in a wider range rather than a tight base.
Today, price has made a pretty strong push up, and got near the highs of the range, but is currently sitting off of those highs. I don’t expect this to break strong to the upside — if it does break I want to play the confirmation, not the threat, since that’s how I get faked out — so I’ll look to get in on a push to the lows of the range.
JPY – Neutral
Truthfully, I’m having a hard time thinking through this one. There’s almost a wedge forming, where the lows are relatively constant, and the highs are declining. But, on a couple of occasions, price has pushed through the support level that makes up the bottom of the wedge. Those breaks suggest a downtrend, but they haven’t been sustained, and price has made a decent rally off of those lows each time.
Today, price has pushed through that same key area again, but didn’t reach as far as the lows from last week. And since then, price has rallied a bit and is sitting on that key level. This seems range-bound, but it’s not really at the lows or the highs of the range. I also don’t trust a break to/through the lows, so I’ll hold off for today.
AUD – Short/Neutral
Another tough one this morning. Price has overall been trending down for the last several weeks, but in the middle of last month, price bottomed out and started pushing up. It’s been trending up from then until this morning when price made a strong push to the downside, taking out several key areas.
It looks like it might be extended but A) it’s stalling right now, which might make for good entry points and B) it might not be extended on individual charts.
The primary thing giving me pause is that there was an uptrend over the last couple of weeks, and price hasn’t technically made down-“trending” moves; it’s just made a strong push down. But the longer-term trend has been down, so this could be a continuation of that.
I’ll take a look at this on individual charts to the downside, and do my best not to chase.
NZD – Neutral
I’m hesitating here and it’s because of the range strategy. This has moved similarly to AUD in that it’s been pushing down for most of the year, but made a bit of a rally over the last couple of weeks. Here, though, while I can see higher highs and higher lows, they’re only slightly higher and lower and thus it looks more like a range to the eye.
Price made a strong push down this morning, and has gotten to the lows of the range, maybe even breaking through. And from there, price has pushed up a bit, not sitting on the lows. Since that’s the case, I should look at this long given the range-bound trade, but I think I’m going to leave it alone.
With the overall weakness, and the strong drop today, I don’t love playing this as a range. I’ll wait on this until there’s a confirmed breakout, or until the range holds up for a few more days.
CHF – Neutral
This has been strong for most of the year, with long periods of sideways movement within this uptrend. Price peaked near the middle of last month and largely moved sideways from there, until it made a strong push down at the end of the month, breaking the lows of the sideways movement.
Price has been rallying from there, and while it’s made a good push back into the prior range, price hasn’t been able to get to the highs and is currently hovering in the middle. This could be a return to the upside or it could be a retest within a reversal move. Since I could argue both sides, I’ll hold off until there’s a clear direction to my eye.
Busy day. I’ve got a lot of pairs to look at, as well as a new strategy I need to practice. Hopefully I don’t get too overwhelmed. I’m feeling alright right now, though, and am ready to dive in to each pair to see where opportunities lie.
Thanks for reading, and stay tuned to see what trades I actually make and how they play out! Let me know in the comments what you think about this analysis and if you see anything different from what I see.