Good morning. I’m a little tired this morning.. I woke up for some reason around 5 and couldn’t really go back to sleep. I got out of bed at 6:45 and started working on the blog a bit, so it’s been a good start to the morning, but I’m tired. I’ve had a protein shake though and just made some coffee and I’m ready to dive in.
After going through my last couple of weeks of trades, I’m seeing that my performance isn’t as bad as I keep telling myself it is. Losses still hold an outsized amount of weight in my mind than wins, so I feel like I’m doing worse than I am. But objectively, I’m making some real strides. I just need to continue to work and that brings us to this mornings analysis. The market is already open, but that’s fine.
Let’s dive in to the Forex market analysis for today, August 29th 2023.
USD – Long
Price has been strong for a long time now and throughout the early morning, price made a nice spike. Price broke out of a pretty strong resistance area (though it wicked up to these highs last week, and today, price is stalling around that level).
Overall, this looks pretty strong, and I’d like to see how it’s holding up on individual charts.
CAD – Neutral
This is up a good amount on the day so far, but largely over the last couple of weeks this has been moving sideways. This morning’s up-move is in the middle of this sideways move, and it’s not threatening to break in either direction. There’s also a lot of chop in the immediate price area, so I’m going to hold off here.
EUR – Long
This is an interesting one this morning. Price has been strong for quite some time — at least all this year — though there have been some sizable drops within that time. Through most of the last couple of weeks, price had reached new highs but started moving sideways; and from there, price broke the base to the downside and had a bit of a pullback.
That pullback bottomed out last Wednesday, and from there, price has been steadily pushing up. This week, price has pushed back up, and is hovering around the lows of the aforementioned base, which is a level that has held as resistance in the past.
If this ever did show reversal price action, it was quickly replaced with an up-trend again. And if this up-trend is going to continue, it could make a nice run. I’ll look at this long, but I’ll try not to chase since I am looking at this into a key level.
GBP – Neutral
This has also been strong for most of the year, but made a pretty sizable drop last week. From there, price made a lower high and a lower low and then yet another lower high. From there, price has largely been moving sideways (though I could argue some minor strength).
Since this has been so strong in the past, plus the minor strength in the recent history, a part of me wants to be bullish here; but that’s not what the price action is showing me. I’ll leave this alone for this morning and hopefully revisit this afternoon and see if this has moved in a way where I’d be comfortable trading it overnight.
JPY – Short
This has been somewhat wild over the past couple of months, as I’ve documented in the past. This morning, though, price has made a strong push down and got to a support level that’s held up all month. It looks like price just pushed through that level and is hovering around it. If this is truly ready to break this area of support, it could drop quite a bit, so I’ll definitely look at this short today.
AUD – Long
I was going to try to argue bullishness here this morning, but I think it’d be best if I held off. For the first week of the month, this moved sideways, had a couple-day drop that took out those lows, and bottomed out on the 16th. Since the 16th, this has been trending up, and the area that was support the first week of the month is now acting as pretty strong resistance.
Earlier this morning, price made a strong push up and pushed through that key area, but pretty quickly pulled back and was down on the day. As I’ve been typing this, though, price has seemingly started to make another push up. On second (third?) thought, if this is the beginning of a reversal to the upside, now would be a great time to get in. A pretty strong key area was broken. I will look at this long this morning I just have to be careful not to chase. Hopefully individual charts are cleaner than this, though.
NZD – Neutral
This has been moving sideways over the last roughly 2 weeks, and while it’s made a nice spike this morning, it is still in the middle of the range. Price is strong today, but I trade patterns, not just strength. I’ll hold off here and revisit when it looks like it’s going to break in one direction or the other.
CHF – Neutral
This is moving sideways again, so it might be building momentum to make another strong push up. Over the last week, though, the sideways movement has been around the lows. And while there was a decent spike this morning, it’s only gotten up to the middle of the range. If this breaks out again, I’ll look at it long for sure, but I’m going to hold off for this morning.
I’ve only got one short this morning, so I’m not going to be too overwhelmed with charts to look at today. I’m going to dive in, now, stay tuned for the write-up on the trades I actually end up taking!