I got up quite early this morning. Typically, I use the alarm on my smartwatch to wake me up each morning, but I left it on it’s charger overnight so I didn’t have it to wake me up. When I woke up around 6:45 this morning, I ended up just staying awake so I didn’t accidentally sleep too long.
I should have used that time to meditate, but I worked on blog stuff instead. Hopefully I still make time to meditate today, I need to get back in to that practice. Otherwise, though, I’m feeling alright. I’m fairly confident in my strategy and I know what I’m looking for and trying to do, so that’s good.
If all goes well today, I’ll get my trading in, finish the blog updates I’m working on, get a workout in, and be done by 3. I can’t get distracted, though, so I’m going to dive in.
USD – Long
This has made a nice spike this morning, pushing up to the highs of the range it’s been in for the last few days. It’s still sitting a bit off of the highs, though, so that gives me pause. That said, this could look really good on individual charts — not ranging and ready to break out if it is — so I will look at this long, I just have to make sure not to chase anything.
CAD – Neutral
After being quite weak yesterday — looking as though it was going to make a strong push down after breaking a strong key level — price has rallied today, and has pushed up significantly through the key levels it broke to the downside yesterday, and then some. This hasn’t moved enough, yet, for me to consider this a reversal, so I’m not ready to trade this long, but this move up is too high for me to short it, so I’ll hold off.
Today’s Pairs
GBP/USD – Short
AUD/USD – Short
NZD/USD – Short
EUR – Neutral
This is a tough one this morning. Price has been strong for over a month, but since the beginning of this week, has made a lower high, a lower low, and a subsequent lower high. This is on a 4 hour chart. That said, though, the drop to make the lows was a pretty deep drop, and the lower high it’s currently making is roughly at the same level as the prior high.
I could argue both directions here. I can see bullishness with price technically breaking above the prior swing high and being roughly even with an earlier high. But if this is just a rally/retest, that would suggest bearishness. Since I’m on the fence and could see either direction, I’ll leave this alone.
GBP – Short
This had a strong drop yesterday at the start of the day (midnight) but rallied throughout most of the day yesterday. This morning, price has made another push down, and is sitting on a rough key area that was created on the drop yesterday. If price can push though this, it could make for a good short, especially given that it might be cleaner on individual charts. I’ll check this out to the downside today.
JPY – Neutral
Going back to Late June, price has largely been in a range. There have been some significant moves within this range — as well as some breaks of major key areas — but they’ve been choppy and unpredictable. Today, price is sitting right on a level that’s been both support and resistance going back to June, which I referenced earlier.
Is this a pullback/retest and price is going to make another significant push up to the highs of the range? Or is price weak again and it’s going to break this level and push to the lows of the range? I’m not sure here, so I think I’m just going to leave this alone for today. Maybe, if I end up not seeing anything else I like, I’ll look at this both vs something I definitely like long and something I definitely like short, and see if there’s opportunities on individual charts.
AUD – Short
This is another scenario where I can argue both directions convincingly (to me). During the first week of the month, price largely moved sideways. The second week saw a drop, and over the last several days, price has largely rallied back to within the sideways movement from earlier this month.
Price is down on the day right now which could either be a return to the downside (on the break of the support area that was created during the sideways movement); or it could be a bull pullback, bouncing off of that support area and continuing up. I want to trade this because both seem viable, but I can’t guess on a direction.
I zoomed out to a weekly chart, and I’m leaning toward short. The level it’s sitting on was a strong support area that hasn’t been broken since price crossed above it back in June of 2020. That area is acting as resistance right now, so I’m going to err toward it failing at that level again. I’ll look at this short today.
NZD – Short
This has largely been pushing down all year, though there’s been some spikes within that time. Last week, price made a significant push down and took out some support that was created in this long-term downtrend. Price bottomed out on Monday and has been rallying since then, but it hasn’t been a strong rally, and this morning, price is down again.
This looks like a good bear rally to me, and if this can break the minor support area it’s on, it could make a significant move down. I’ll take a look at this short today.
CHF – Neutral
This long-term uptrend has appeared to stall again, and price is sitting off of the highs right now. It almost looks like a small reversal. Overall, I’m bullish, but I’m not ready to trade it long until it threatens to break the highs of it’s current range (or until it shows clear reversal action) so I’ll hold off.
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