Welcome to my trading blog where I discuss my analysis of the financial markets and talk about my trades. Currently, I’m primarily trading Forex, so that’s what you’ll find below. Additionally, I’ve got a long-term ETF portfolio that you can check out if you’re interested in that as well.
A little bit of a late start this morning. It’s still before 8:30, though, which is good. There’s also a USD news event happening right at 9, so I might wait until a few minutes after that to actually trade (on top of letting the market breathe). Otherwise, I’m ready to dive in to the baskets and see where I want to put my focus. Remember: I’m trying to make the best decision I can, so I’m looking for good and great charts, not just decent one’s. Be patient.
USD – Long
This seemed to break to a new recent high yesterday morning, but by the afternoon and through the night, this just pulled back. Since roughly midnight, though, price has been pushing back up and is now near the resistance area it broke yesterday. This looks like it wants to break that area, so I’ll take a look at this long again today.
CAD – Long
Similar to the above, this threatened to break a resistance area yesterday morning, but pulled back through the afternoon and evening. It’s also been pushing up since roughly midnight and is up against that resistance area. The main difference between this and USD is that the up-trend is a bit more clean here. I’ll take a look at this long again too.
EUR – Short/Neutral
I think I like this to the downside today. Price spiked overnight the night before last, but reversed throughout the day yesterday. Price pushed down, made a new recent low, a lower high, a lower low, and yet another high. Right now, price is hovering around the most recent “high” , which is also a fairly strong key level. I could see this pushing down from this level, so I’ll look at this short.
Today’s Pairs
EUR/USD – Short
GBP/USD – Short
USD/JPY – Long
EUR/CAD – Short
GBP/CAD – Short
CAD/JPY – Long
GBP – Short
This has been getting pummeled over the last couple of days, though there was a bit of a rally this morning. Other than that, this is pretty clearly weak, so I’ll look for shorts.
JPY – Short/Neutral
I had to do a bit of research on this pattern before I dove in. I know it’s something I’d seen before, but couldn’t remember exactly what it was. This is in a bit of a descending triangle over the second half of the month, and price is sitting right on the support area creating the triangle. If price could break this area, it could be a great short, so I’ll look here, too.
AUD – Neutral
Maybe it’s because I’ve already got a few pairs to look at, but I want to leave this alone already. It made a huge spike yesterday, but is still sitting a bit below the next resistance area. I’ll leave this alone for today.
NZD – Neutral
The recent price action here doesn’t look very good to me. Price pushed down and looked weak, maybe even creating a bit of a re-test/bear rally, but the rally sustained throughout yesterday. It peaked at the end of the day, and has been dropping since — but it’s still above the support area it broke yesterday. I don’t love this, so I’ll hold off.
CHF – Neutral
After being VERY strong this entire month (and longer, really) this has started to take a dip, starting yesterday morning. This might be a reversal move, but that’s not clear enough to look to short, but it’s down enough that I’m not comfortable looking at this long. I’ll hold off here for today.
Random Side Thoughts
As I’m getting back into trading consistently and trying somewhat new strategies, I occasionally take some side-notes of things I want to continue to think about. Here are those for today:
Now that I think about it, in the past, I would take trades on either the 15 min. chart or the 1h chart — whichever had the “cleaner” pattern. I, basically, did that today but with the 5/15 min. charts. I think that should be the move going forward.
Another side note: I’m not sure what to do about this new habit. I’m taking trades on the 5 min. chart, which is a decent amount of time, but I’ve still been a bit susceptible to missing trades. So, I’ve been taking trades based on my entry & stop, but just adding in a take profit of 2.5R+, instead of picking a target and seeing if the R:R matches up.
I feel like the latter is a swing trading strategy, and with day-trading, these 15 – 30 pip moves should be relatively easily in play. I’ll continue to practice target-selecting strategies to find out what works best for me.
Trades
I got in 3 trades this morning as well, here’s how they went
Thanks for reading! While it wasn’t the highest-earning day, I’m proud of myself for what I accomplished today. It’s one of my first few days getting back into the swing of things — and one of my first times taking a true shot at day trading. To have a loss, a win and a break-even trade is respectable, and something I can build on.
Let me know in the comments below, what you thought about today’s analysis and trades and stay tuned for more trades and analysis!