Welcome to my Forex trading journal and blog. Today, I’ve got another analysis of the major currencies, looking for the best pairs to trade.
A little bit of a late start this morning. I got out of bed late today, made myself a protein shake and some coffee, and I’m just now getting started at roughly 8:40. I did close my eyes and do a small meditation this morning, so that’s something, but I’d like to do more going forward. It’s a nice start, though. Otherwise, I’m ready to dive in and find some moneymaking opportunities.
Shoot, I just looked and there’s another news event at 9:00 for USD this morning. And, again, I don’t want to trade around those. I’ll just do what I did yesterday, but this time, at 9:15, I’ll look at USD and add a bias and potentially look at some charts.
USD – Neutral
This has been on a fairly strong rally for a couple weeks, but starting at the beginning of this week, has definitely made some lower highs and lower lows. Over the last day-and-a-half, price has stalled at a key level that’s been both support and resistance in the past. This looks like a decent base on the 4h chart, but price is still pretty far off of the lows. I like this in both directions, so I think I’m just going to hold off for now.
This is off topic but: I think I might need to start my analysis on a lower time-frame. If I’m trading on the 5min. Chart, there’s 48 candles worth of data in one 4h chart, so I’m not sure I’m getting the most accurate picture of the recent price action, which I’m trying to trade. Tomorrow, I’ll start my analysis on the 1h or 2h chart.
CAD – Short
This has been on a rally this week so far, but it peaked yesterday and has been pulling back since yesterday afternoon. The peak appears to be in line with the downtrend that started earlier this month, as well. The pullback has reached a nice support area, which has been broken a couple of times, but it hasn’t been sustained yet. The most recent candle has somewhat broken that area again, but has rallied to the bottoms. If this can make another push down/make a sustained break of this support area, this could be a great short.
Today’s Pairs
GBP/CAD – Long
EUR/GBP – Short
GBP/NZD – Long
CAD/JPY – Short
NZD/JPY – Short
AUD/CAD – Long
AUD/NZD – Long
EUR/JPY – Short
EUR/AUD – Short
EUR – Short
EUR has been largely weak, especially over the last week. There was a rally yesterday, and through the night, but currently, price appears to be returning to the downside. It’s currently sitting at a level that’s been a pretty strong support and resistance area in the past, which could be another great short opportunity if it breaks that level. I’ll take a look at individual charts here.
GBP – Long
Usually, as I’d been taught, EUR and GBP are correlated, but that doesn’t seem to be the case right now. Going back roughly the same amount as EUR, and this has actually been trending up (with, admittedly, some wild swings in there). Today, price has broken to a new recent high, but has pulled back to the close of the prior candle, which is also acting as a pretty strong key area. This could be a retest on shorter time-frames, so I’ll look at individual charts for opportunities here.
JPY – Neutral/Long
I’m not sure I want to trade this today. This looked like it was trending down starting on the 12th, I saw (and drew) a triangle on the chart (that I initially thought was a long pattern), that price pushed through to the downside, followed by a short rally. This looked like it’d be a good short trade if/when it pushed back down again.
This morning, though, price has made a fairly sizable spike up, and has taken out several key levels. The most recent candle made a push up, but has pulled back to it’s open/the prior candles close, which could either be a re-test or a return to the downside. I don’t have a clear bias here, so I think I’ll hold off. If I don’t like any individual charts Long, though, I’ll revisit this.
AUD – Neutral/Long
This is tough because the basket did exactly what I thought it’d do yesterday. It fell from the peak it was at, and reached the bottom of the range. Further proving out the range-bound action, since reaching the bottom price has been pushing up. That said, though, when I paired this with CAD yesterday, this rallied in that individual chart all day… I realize my basket is an average, but that seemed like a strong up-move for a “weak” currency.
Today, as I mentioned, price is bouncing off of the lows of the range, and if this is continuing that price action, I’d expect this to push up for the foreseeable future. That said, at the lows of the range, price has seemed to move sideways a bit more before pushing back up than it has been at the highs of the range. I’ll take a look at this long today, but I’ll be cautious about it.
NZD – Short
This has been a little choppy, but I can see a short play here. Price has been pushing down for over a week, and (on the 4h chart) this week, appears to be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. Price is sitting on the breakout area of the head-and shoulders, so it might be ready to make another push down. I’ll take a look at individual charts.
CHF – Neutral
This give me a little bit of pause. It’s been very strong for the last month+, but made a deep pullback last week. It rallied back near the highs, then pulled back to those recent lows, and yesterday rallied back to those highs (pushing above the highs from last week). On one hand, this could now be ranging, and it’s going to push back to the downside for the rest of the week, but on the other hand, this could be making another push back to the upside and regaining the strength it’s had for the last several weeks. I’m really not sure, so I’m going to leave it alone. I might revisit later if I don’t find anything else I like.
Thanks for reading. If you have any thoughts on the Forex or currency market, let me know in the comments below. And I hope to see you back here soon!