Welcome to my stock and Forex trading journal and blog. I take notes of my thoughts before and after taking trades each day; and I thought these notes might be helpful for some of you. I analyze the markets, as well as myself, in an attempts to make the best decisions possible each day. Read on to see my thoughts on the Forex market for today, July 27th.
REMEMBER: BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THE PATTERNS TO DEVELOP. I’M TRADING PATTERNS. PRICE ACTION IS PATTERNS. NOT JUST THE “DIRECTION”.
I need to go back to picking targets and seeing if the R:R makes sense based on the price action rather than simply setting a target at an arbitrary number of pips. I could do that, maybe, if I were trading a 1min chart, but I’m not right now, so I need to pick a target first, I can even add that into the order screen so it can calculate it for me.
So, goal for tomorrow, pick the target first (on the 1h or 15min chart), then stop area and finally entry. Given a 2.5R or greater, I’ll enter a market order if the move seemingly has already started. I’d rather do that the enter a stop order on the break of a relatively arbitrary key area.
I’m starting with CAD again this morning because there’s another news announcement at 9 in USD. Like yesterday, I’ll look at USD again at around 9:15 after the news comes out and the market reacts.
USD – Neutral
The news announcement came out better than expected, and this made a sharp push up because of it. This looks like an outsized move, though, and price has reached a pretty strong resistance area, so I’m not sure how much more upward pressure it has behind it. Especially since it was essentially in a downtrend for the last 5 days. I’ll hold off trading this today and see how it’s moving next week.
CAD – Neutral
Over the last couple of days, this has been steadily moving down, but has had a pretty sizable spike this morning. This move looks like a reversal move, but no “trend” has formed yet. That said, it’s currently stalled at an area that’s been both support and resistance in the past, and if it can break that level, it could make a run. On the other hand, this could fail at this level and push back down. If I zoom out to a daily chart, well, I guess, I could still argue both directions. I think I’ll just hold off here until I’m a bit more convinced on one direction or the other.
EUR – Short
This has largely been pushing down for the last week or so, and despite a rally overnight, this dropped strong throughout this morning. A couple of support areas were taken out, so this looks very weak, I’ll look for short opportunities here today.
GBP – Neutral
This has steadily been pushing up for the last week, and while it looks like it’s rolling over to the downside today, it seems to be stalling at a key area — even rallying off of that level. Even if this does push through this level of support, the next one is fairly close, so I’m not sure how far it could go. Besides, price is struggling to break this level right now anyway. I don’t see strength here right now, and I don’t want to short it here, so I’ll hold off.
JPY – Neutral/Long
Last week, I drew a couple trend-lines here, showing a bit of a pennant, that I thought was a sign of strength to come. Price broke the low of the pennant, though, and pushed down strong for about a day. From there, price has steadily pushed up, and made it back to the levels it was in when developing the pennant — and right now, price is sitting right at that low area. I’m at a crossroads here. It’s been pushing up since making that drop, but over the last 1/2 day, has made a strong pullback, back below that support area, and the current candle is a bit outsized back up to that support area that’s now acting as resistance. I’ll look at this cautiously long this morning.
AUD – Neutral/Short
This is still choppy. Yesterday, it did rally back up to the highs of the range, and so far this morning is pushing down again. Price is sitting on some support, and there’s room below this area to the lows of the range, so this could make for a good short. Unfortunately, though, I don’t really trade range-bound moves, and over the past couple of days, looking at this in one direction, the individual chart has been moving in the opposite direction. Maybe that won’t be the case today, though — I’ll look at this cautiously short.
NZD – Neutral
I don’t really see a discernible direction here. Price has largely moved sideways over the last few days and despite looking like there’d be a move to the upside yesterday, price stalled at the next level of resistance and pulled back from there. Right now, price is sitting on a support area, and I maybe see a double-top that has formed, but that’s not enough, in this context, so trade this short. I’ll hold off here for today and revisit next week.
CHF – Neutral
This has had a sharp drop this morning, taking out several key areas that were made when the strong up-trend stalled. With the sizable drop that it just made, I’m not comfortable taking this long today; but it also hasn’t confirmed a reversal yet, so I don’t want to chase this short. I’ll leave it alone for today and revisit next week.
Thanks for reading. What currencies and pairs are you looking at this week? Let me know in the comments below! Stay tuned for future trades and analysis.