Welcome! Follow along as I analyze major currencies, finding the best Forex pairs to trade and where to put my money.
I had a hard time getting out of bed this morning, so now it’s kind of late. And I’m tired. Oh well, have to get to work.
Over these last 2.5 or so weeks, my day trading hasn’t gone that great. I’ve had some wins in there, but nothing enough to take out my losses and bring me into any profit. So, yet again, I’m pivoting. I’m going to go back to trading how I did when I was successful: Looking at each basket, starting at on the daily chart; coming up with pairs from there; and taking trades on the hourly chart — dropping to the 15 min. chart only if I have to. It’ll take a little bit longer to see the results, but they should be more consistent.
USD – Neutral
(Wow, I’m on the strugglebus). I think I’m going to leave this alone for today. It’s been strong since the middle of last month, but today, seems to be struggling at a strong key area. Yesterday, price pushed up through the lows of that area, but failed to hang on to the gains. Today, price made a small push up, but doesn’t seem to have much conviction. I’ll hold off for now.
Today’s Pairs
EUR/JPY – Long
GBP/JPY – Long
EUR/CHF – Long
GBP/CHF – Long
CAD – Neutral
This looks like it’s made, largely, a reversal move to the upside since last month, but over the last roughly 5 days, has been on a bit of a pullback. The recovery back to the upside hasn’t happened yet, and since price is down on the day today, I don’t think it’s going to happen today. I’ll hold off here for now.
EUR – Long
This has been up for over a month (and RSI isn’t overbought) and today price looks like it’s threatening to make a push. Price is up a good amount already, and is at the highs of a resistance area that’s held up both back in April/May and in July. I’ll take a look at this long and hopefully capitalize
GBP – Long
This has been up for largely the entire year. There was a small pullback that started in the middle of last month, but price seems to have recovered from that. Price is down right now, but it’s pushed back up to the most recent highs. It’s still a little off of that area in it’s basket, but I should look at individual charts to see what they look like.
JPY – Short
This is a tough one this morning. Price has largely been weak for the last few months, but appeared to turn things around in early July. After a week-long spike, price seemed to return to the downside, but hit some support and spiked kind of hard. It’s been a bit more steady since then, pushing down, but that still was only about a week ago, and price is sitting on the level it spiked off of. On the other hand, this looks like a pretty strong support level, and if price pushes through it, it could make a good drop. I’ll take a look at this to the short side on individual charts.
AUD – Neutral
This has been very weak for most of this year, save for a long rally during the first 2 weeks of June. Since then, though, price pushed down, based through July, and seems to be pushing back to the downside again. Prior to the spike in June, price made a bottom at the end of April and the end of May at roughly the same level, and price is currently sitting around that level. On one hand, if it breaks through that level, it could make for a good short, but on the other hand, if that’s a level where there’s a lot of buyers, price could push up from here. Now that I’m looking again, too, over the last 5 days, price has pushed through that level, but hasn’t sustained and price continually rises back up to the key area. I’ll actually hold off here for today and revisit tomorrow/next week.
NZD – Neutral
The chart isn’t quite the same, but the story, especially the story over the last 5ish days, is quite similar to AUD. I’ll hold off here until there’s more conviction to the downside, or a definite reversal move.
CHF – Long
This has been strong for most of the year, pretty consistently; and while it’s had a few stalls in this long up-move, it’s had few drops. Through the second half of July, price mostly based, but over the last few days, has been in a tighter base at the highs of the prior one. Yesterday, price made a spike up out of that area, but returned by the close, so it’s not the prettiest play looking at this long, but it does look strong so I’m comfortable with it. I just have to be sure to put my entries outside of highs, and not just outside of the bodies of candles. We’ll see what individual charts look like, though.
Thanks for reading. Trading is all about learning and sharing insights, so feel free to share your thoughts on this analysis in the comments below!