I’m on the strugglebus this morning. I’m not hung over, just mad anxiety. I’m not sure why, as usual, but it feels particularly bad today. Not so bad that I feel like I can’t do anything and I just want to sit on the couch (though I’m close), but I just don’t want to do anything. I guess it is that bad.
I’m trying to be better about being disciplined, though, and there’s nothing to do, really, but to get to it. I have an idea of what I’m looking for, I’ve got a routine and I’ve got a pretty defined “end” when I can start working on other things.
If I get to it, I could probably get everything done within a reasonable time (that includes updating the blog and exercising) and from there, I can play video games for the rest of the night or something. I need to get it all done, though. Just keep swimming. I’m going to dive in now, and hope for the best.
USD – N – this has been strong for a long time — by the way, I’m starting on the 4h chart, instead of the daily chart this morning. I think it gives me a more-clear picture of the price action given the fact that when I saw what looked like a pullback on the daily chart, it often looked like almost a reversal move on the 2h/1h charts. So, I’m starting on a slightly lower time-frame for my analysis. But back to USD. Over the last day or so, price has been moving sideways, and despite breaking to new recent highs, sometime yesterday, price hasn’t been able to hold on to those gains. It looks like a great high base, though, so there could be some long opportunities in the future, I’m just not seeing it today.
Today’s Pairs
EUR/JPY – Long
GBP/JPY – Long
CHF/JPY – Long
CAD – N – For about a week starting late July this moved sideways (looking, maybe, like a high base at the time), but then had a drop out of that range, for the next couple weeks price moved sideways, starting to push back up, but over the last roughly 4 trading days, price has been moving sideways in the same range it did in early August. This appears to be very range-bound to me right now, so I’m going to leave this alone. I’ll revisit if it breaks to one direction or the other.
EUR – L – This is interesting this morning. Price has been strong since the end of July, and made new highs, but has pulled back over the last week. Price made a strong up-move yesterday and reached a key area that was created on the short down-trend over the last several days. Right now, price seems to be stalling at that area, so could make a decent run if it breaks the highs. That said, there is another key area not too far outside of the highs, so it might not run that far. This is the basket, though, and individual charts look a little different, so I’ll see what this looks like to the long side against something specific.
GBP – L – This had a pretty large spike overnight last night, and nearly looks extended. There’s some stalling in the price action right now, so there may be more momentum being built. I’ll take a look at this to the long side on individual charts, but I need to be careful not to chase, and not trade anything that looks extended.
JPY – S – I’m struggling with this one a bit. Struggling in general, but that’s neither here nor there. Price did push through the support level I hoped it would push through yesterday, and made a new recent low. From there, though, price has rallied, and right now is up on the day. If this is the extent of the bear rally, it could make for a good short, but that depends on what it looks like on individual charts. I will take a look at this short.
AUD – N – Overall, this has been weak, but it looks like it’s leveling out a bit right now. There’s a fairly strong support level that’s held up 3 times prior to today this month, that price is sitting a little above right now. Even if price pushes through those lows, I don’t trust it, since it has once in the past and quickly rallied back up to that key level. I’ll leave this alone for today, and revisit when I see some conviction in one direction or the other.
NZD – N – This is largely in a low-base right now, but technically the lows of the “base” are sitting above the recent lows. Also, price is currently more in the middle of the base and doesn’t look like it’s got much conviction in either direction right now. I’ll leave this alone for today and see how it’s moving tomorrow (or later today if that’s something I end up doing).
CHF – L – This made a strong push up this morning/overnight last night, but since 5am, has pulled back just as much. It broke a fairly strong resistance area on the push up, and is retesting that area, but both moves look so large right now, that I’m not sure they’re tradable — looks like an extended push up and an extended pullback. That said, things might look extended here, but are actually tradable on individual charts, so I’ll give it a chance, but I’ll make sure not to chase anything here.
Trading is all about learning and sharing insights, so feel free to share your thoughts on this analysis in the comments below!