Equities were mostly weak/neutral most of last week until Friday when they took a pretty steep drop. This morning, price gapped down, but have spent the day so far rallying to Friday’s close. Was Friday an exhaustive move/a big drop based on the fed announcement and equities are going to start to head back upward, or was Friday creating another reversal and we’re in for another few days/weeks of weakness? We’ll see, but I can’t really use this information to inform my Forex decisions at this point, so we’ll just see what the baskets look like
USD – L – This pushed up strong in today’s candle, taking out it’s most recent resistance area pretty convincingly. That said, price has already pulled back and is sitting near those highs/that resistance area. I can see some definite signs of a return to the upside here, so I’ll look at this long on individual charts
CAD – L – CAD, throughout July and the first half of August, looked like it was rolling over to the downside. Over the last couple of weeks, though, price has been pushing up again, and is up against a resistance area that’s held a few times in the past. This is a tough one, as I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a lot of indecision in the near future, but if I’m going to take this, I’ll take it long. I’ll see what it looks like on individual charts this week
Today’s Pairs
GBP/USD – Short
EUR/USD – Short
GBP/CAD – Short
EUR/CAD – Short
GBP/AUD – Long
EUR/AUD – Short
EUR – S – I thought I had an easy Short in EUR last week on the hourly chart, but shortly after getting in and being slightly profitable, price rallied and stopped me out. Looking today, there was a fairly sizable push up on Friday and another one so far today, but price reached a resistance area and has been down from there so far today as well. With 2 strong days in a row, this could be the beginnings of a reversal, but I believe it’s a simple rally within a downtrend. I’ll look to short this off of resistance/the declining trend-line tomorrow
GBP – S – I don’t think I need to explain much here. GBP looks weak and I’ll look to short it this week
JPY – N – Another tough analysis. This largely ranged from early June until the end of July when it rallied, took out the highs of the range and looked like it was reversing to the upside. Since it spiked, though, over the next couple of weeks, price has been slowly pulling back to within the range it had been in. Today, so far, price has pushed down strong, taking out a support area from last week, but is getting close to the lows/support area from the range that started in June. If it’s truly weak, and can break those lows, who knows how long it could run, but it’s still a bit off of the lows. If it’s a return to the range, this could have a nice rally in the near future. I think I’ll just hold off on JPY tomorrow and revisit on Wednesday? Worst case, I’ll see how it’s behaved since now (tomorrow when I trade) and make a decision then. We’ll see how the rest of the baskets look and the pairs tomorrow morning.
AUD – N/L – I’m largely neutral AUD this morning. This has been steadily pushing up over the last 2 months, but it’s also had it’s fair share of corrections within that push up. Last week, price pushed up again and made a new high, but ended up closing the day considerably down. Today, price is pushing up again, but it’s stalling around an area that’s acted as both support and resistance since April. If I were to make a directional pick, I’d say “long” but with the choppiness, I’m okay with leaving it alone
NZD – N – There’s a considerable amount of choppiness here, too; and while it’s overall weak, I don’t think I want to touch it. Price has steadily been pushing down, it rallied/based for a bit last week, then dropped pretty strong on Friday, but has rallied almost equally as strong today. On top of that, even if price does push down and through today’s lows, there’s another support area just outside of that. I think I’ll hold off for now
CHF – N – Between the middle and end of June, this just rocketed up. 13 straight days with only one being down (and even then, it was closer to a break even day, than down), at a gain of over 5%. So, I’m trying to analyze how this may move, with that in it’s very recent history. Since then, price pushed down for a couple of days, giving back roughly 1/3 of it’s gains, but has steadily pushed up since then. Slowly but surely over the last month+ pushing back to and through the highs it reached at the end of June. Last week, there was a fairly sizable drop — 4 down-days in a row, which is the first time that’s happened since the pullback a couple of months ago. I see too many conflicting signals here right now, so I’ll hold off