The S&P did break to new recent lows yesterday, reaching a support level from back in May of last year. Again, I expect more weakness in the short-term here, so we’ll see how that plays out. The VIX is near recent highs too, so hopefully that translates to opportunities for me
I’ve narrowed it down to like 8 stocks to look at this morning, but I have to use the bathroom now
Alright. I’ve been doing only so-so today with my analysis. I don’t know how to solve my problem(s), but man when I do…. It’s gonna be awesome. Regardless, after taking yet another break to use the bathroom and, y’know, I’m looking at charts again. The one that’s jumping out at me right now is SWN, which I’m pretty sure I’ve traded before.
Looking at the daily chart, this has been pushing up since mid-March, and had a bit of an explosion through late march and early April. Mid-April, price dropped a bit to some support from 2017, and has been pushing up over the last couple of days. Today, price has spiked up to near a resistance level, and at this moment is in a small base. If this breaks the highs, it could make another run, so I’m going to run the numbers and do this as a straight 1% stock play. (if the numbers are there).
Upon initial calculations, using the highs before the drop as my target, I’m only looking at a ~1.6R:R. If I look at a target, given a break of that high, I’m looking at an over 4R:R, which is great. The only question is: Do I trust that target? The only thing giving me a bit of pause is looking at the weekly chart, things are near overbought areas and at the top Bollinger Band, but on the lower time frames, things look better. Maybe that’s the crux that says the next level up isn’t in play.
It’s a 1% risk and price is down a bit on the hourly chart, forming ac leaner base, so I’m going to put an order in here
I also looked for something that might be moving a bit more intra-day and one thing was AZUL. On the 4h chart, price is coming off of the lower band and coming out of over-sold area, as well as coming up against a resistance area that’s been both support and resistance several times in the past.
Dropping down to the 5 min. chart (to make a day trade) and there’s a nice base that’s formed, with a target that offers over 4R:R. The day-trade aspect gives me pause, but I see something that fits within my edge, so I shouldn’t hesitate. It’s also a really small position (I calculated at .5% risk, and I’m still taking less than that in the trade), so I think I’m just going to pull the trigger there. I’ll be even more upset if it spikes and I missed it.
I still don’t know if I’m being too reckless or too conservative, or if my focus on strategy and entering things right is less of a priority than the making money of it all (missing the forest for the trees), but I’ve put in 2 orders today — one for a small day-trade, another for a swing trade, and hopefully, they both trigger. Will try to be on top of journaling and action items etc. based on these trades, but I believe I followed my rules on both of them. Time will tell if they’re winners.