It is 2:30, and I’m just now getting to it. A positive spin: the markets have had all day to move, and I probably won’t actually make any trades today, so it’s a good time for analysis. I’m going to analyze the Forex market, still, and hopefully get up the nerve to call the number tomorrow.
As far as analysis for stocks/options, I’ll mostly look at the S&P and the Q’s to get an idea of where the overall market is heading (and the Vix to see where volatility is). That brought me to another thought, though. I always include every sector so that I can find opportunity anywhere, but if the number of stocks that are returning is overwhelming me, that could be a way to narrow things down.
I can sort by just tech and banking and see what else they have, but leave it to about 2 or 3 sectors. I like that idea. I might even look at a couple of charts and take notes on them to prepare for tomorrow. I want to get work done, but I don’t feel 100% — having trouble even staying awake and focused.. I’ll still look at the charts today, but I’m also going to try to get up at my first alarm tomorrow (or at least say awake after my first alarm and get out of bed by my last or before) and get to the charts earlier and double-check what I look at today
Starting with the S&P, it double-topped with that rally a couple of weeks ago, and has been pushing down for the last 3 (trading) days. It’s a pretty clear double-top, so I expect more weakness this week, at least to the lows it made at the end of January.
The Q’s over the last 2 weeks looks almost exactly like the S&P, I don’t think there’s much of a coincidence there. That said, price is actually up a little on the day, but it’s sitting near it’s open with good sized wicks on either side (larger on top).
Holy cow, last Thursday and Friday (when I was having some pretty bad emotional days), volatility spiked hard. It’s coming down a bit today, but there could be another push up. I’m not sure if the volatility index follows patterns similar to stocks/Forex, but it’s not in “overbought” territory yet. Though, I don’t actually think that means much here. I’ll keep a close eye here and potentially look to sell some options if this looks like it’s coming down — and if we’re in the midst of more volatility, then I definitely want to be a buyer. Like I said, success this week looks like 2 taken trades.
Today’s Pairs
AUD/NZD – Long
NZD/USD – Short
NZD/CHF – Short
USD – L – On it’s third up-day in a row, and broke some resistance this morning. It’s pulled back to that area, but (looking at the daily) could just be a retest. Esp. with weakness in S&P, I expect more upside here
CAD – Cad has just been basing over the last couple of weeks, and while it’s pushed up considerably today, it’s still within the range and not quite at the highs/breakout area. For now, I think I’m going to just leave CAD alone
EUR – After those monster up-days last week, this has been pushing down steadily. Price has come back to the top of the range it was in for about 3 months before that, which is also the 20MA. That was such a huge and wild move that I’m not sure if it was an actual shift in the direction it’s going to head, or if it was a one-off and is returning to it’s average. I’m going to hold off today and revisit tomorrow, maybe Wednesday
GBP – This has huge upper and lower wicks today and is currently sitting like exactly at it’s open. It’s in a fairly tight range, right now, and has been trending up so it looks like it could have upside potential, but if it were to get to the highs and break out. I’ll hold off for now
JPY – I’m having a tough time with JPY right now. It has some upward movement at the beginning of the year, pulled back over the last few weeks to nearly the lows of the beginning of the year and spiked yesterday and a bit this morning. Today, though, it’s pulled back to it’s open and left a huge upper wick and small lower one. I’d expect this to push up with weakness in equities, but it doesn’t look like it has enough strength for me to actually pull the trigger there. Also, the MA’s are moving sideways, so I don’t see much pressure in either direction. I’ll hold off here
AUD – L – At initial glance, and I think the more I think about it, I’m long AUD. It’s been trending down for a majority of the year, and one could argue downtrend starting last November, but price has broken above that trend-line and is currently re-testing it. In addition, I could also argue for a longer-term up-trend that started when this bottomed out in early December, but that’s a little weaker. I’ll still look at this to the long side this week
NZD – S – I get nervous around an NZD/AUD divergence, and that’s happening again this week, it appears. NZD has been pushing down since last November, stabled out a couple of times in that, but has not shown much strength. It did a bit last week, pushing up and out of a range, and above it’s 20 MA, but couldn’t hold it and has been dropping for the last 2 days. It’s not far away from a fairly strong support level, so that gives me some pause, but it depends on what individual charts look like. I’ll look at this to the short side and maybe the divergence is the best play
CHF – L – Looking at this macro of a view of CHF right now, while it’s had it’s fair share of whiplash, this has been pushing up for almost a year now. There’s a wide range that his has been in for the last 3 months, and price is in the middle/top of that range and pushing above the MA’s. It does scare me a bit, but I can see more upside here this week so I’ll look at individual charts