I don’t feel good today. Straight up. I woke up dwelling on things as usual, and as of right now, I’m just… all of it, or none of it. I don’t know. All I know is that I have to lay at least one brick today and keep moving forward. We’ll see how today goes
On the bright side, the market doesn’t open for another 20 minutes, now, so I am at the computer getting started earlier than usual, so I suppose that’s a positive. The reason isn’t positive, and the fact that this isn’t going to happen consistently isn’t positive, but let’s not dwell on that..
Equities did end up dropping by the end of the day yesterday, filling the gap and closing down .15%. Today, the market isn’t open yet, but futures are pushing up a little, but are still a ways away from the next resistance level. I think, even if today is a slightly positive day, that equities are still bearish, so I’ll maintain that sentiment
USD is on a huge spike this morning, taking out a strong resistance level — I looked at AUD/USD yesterday and this morning, and I don’t see this spike reflected there, so I’m not sure what’s going on with that. I will look around to see if there’s any USD opportunity anywhere
CAD is also on a tear, but is just below a resistance level right now. I’ll take a look at this long, since I’m not sure where the catalyst for this move is
EUR’s dropping strong again, I’ll see if there’s any opportunity there
GBP is still confusing and is sitting near it’s open with long wicks on either side, so I’ll hold off
Mid-Day Thought:
I’m looking at EUR/USD right now, and it looks like it could be the catalyst to USD’s large up-move today. This ultimately broke out yesterday at noon, but I completely missed it. I moved 128 pips since then 🤦🏾♂️. This is the exact opportunity I need to catch, but I wasn’t looking at EUR at all (which I still don’t think was necessarily a bad move). Maybe this is just one of those situations where something drastic happened, and no matter what I probably wouldn’t have caught it, but if that’s not the case I need to figure it out (and need to figure out how to determine whether or not that was the case…)
Another thought that just popped into my head: There are some questions I need to ask myself when I’m about to enter a trade that will help me make/inform some of my decisions. Ultimately, I’m trying to figure out:
How far a security is going to go/to what price is my target?
How long is it going to take to get there? A.K.A. After what amount of time am I willing to concede the trade?
This adds another element to my setups, which would be keeping track of what date I opened each trade and how long it’s been since the trade’s been open. I can create a calculator where I enter the trade and date and number of days I’m willing to wait, and when it’s been that many days, the column changes color, or something. Potentially, I could setup alerts in TradingView as well. Definitely something I want to explore going forward, and something to add when I update my calculators (tomorrow).
I guess, since I’m here, I can do an end of day analysis.
End Of Day
I didn’t do much today, but if I had, it probably would’ve been a pretty good day. Yesterday, maybe the day before I saw NZD dropping, and of course USD rising — and since I couldn’t actually enter a trade for whatever reason, I put entry/stop/target lines on the chart in trading view. They triggered today, made it down to my target, and I entered another “entry” line below a base that formed around my target and that’s currently up (and basing again). I’ve always known that I do have some knowledge in what I’m doing, and while I get down on myself often, I did have a long streak of success and I know I can do it again.
I did have another set of lines for a trade, but that hit my stop loss, but with the trade above, it’s still a net positive.
It’s funny, any losses, I borderline breakdown and want to give up and apply for jobs and this one barely win and I’m feeling like I know what I’m doing haha wow my emotions are WAY more into it than I thought they were, but I think taking the time to type these things out and really focus my analysis will really keep my emotions in check. Hopefully.
Next time I lose a trade, keep this feeling in mind. I do know what I’m doing and losses are going to happen. Even in those long win streaks I had I was still only 50% at best! Keep laying the bricks. 2022 has been good so far in this realm, let’s keep improving.