Today’s MLK day, so the US equity markets aren’t open today. So, I’m going to largely focus on the Forex market and see how it’s shaping up for the week. I don’t plan on pulling any triggers today unless something looks ridiculous.
Looking at the S&P Futures, it appears we’re in a bit of a correction, but doesn’t look too serious. That said, price has pushed below both MA’s and is appearing to have some trouble getting back above them, so I could see some further weakness.
USD – L – This pushed down last week, pushing below it’s MA’s, but it touched the lower band and is now on it’s second up-day. The MA’s touched, but haven’t crossed yet and I could see further weakness in the S&P, so I’ll be looking at this long at least at the beginning of the week
CAD – L/N – I’m looking at this long and my initial gut says long, but it does make me a little nervous. This has been pushing up fairly strongly since mid December and while it’s close to the upper band (and has broken it a couple of times on this push up on the daily chart) it’s not quite there today. This is also on the second up-day after a 2-day pullback, so I’ll follow the trend, I won’t get too aggressive here, though
EUR – N – This is still in a tight range with small bodies and large wicks. I could maybe put a long-term order out there for whenever this does break in one direction or the other, but it’s not something I’ve done in the past, so I’d have to figure out that workflow and how I’d make sure to manage the trade, so I’ll just keep that in the back of my mind
GBP – L/N – This has been on a tear since last December, having, essentially, 16 up-days in a row (there were 3 days where the close was slightly lower than the open technically but, still). Over the last week, though, this has somewhat been pushing down. Overall, it looks like this move is exhausted (and the bands are starting to head back towards each other), so I don’t want to chase, but the markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent, so if it pushes up again, I might look to get in
JPY – L/N – This has been steadily pushing up since the beginning of the year, and after price touched the lower band. I’m seeing a couple higher highs and a higher low, and as price is pushing down today, it might make another higher low — which would put another feather in my “long” hat. All of this coupled with weakness in the S&P and I’ll look at this long this week
Today’s Pairs
NZD/USD – Short
AUD/USD – Short
NZD/CAD – Short
AUD/CAD – Short
GBP/NZD – Long
GBP/AUD – Long
NZD/JPY – Short
AUD/JPY – Short
NZD/CHF – Short
AUD/CHF – Short
AUD – S – Overall, this has been pushing up since early December, the 20 has crossed above the 50 and price is sitting on the lower band right now. On the other hand, over the last couple of weeks, price has pushed down below the bands and I see a lower high and 2 lower lows. Looking at the weekly chart, price is in a pullback and sitting on top of a pretty strong support area below the MA’s. After all of this (and thinking about equity weakness and how that affects AUD), I think I’m going to err short this week
NZD – S – This has steadily been pushing down for a while now and is now sitting on a strong support level. I also saw a upside-down cup-and-handle last week, and that hasn’t broken out yet either, so I’ll definitely look at this short
CHF – L – This is a tough one (as they all are). This dropped hard at the beginning of the year, losing 1.5% in a week, but since then, over the last 5 days this has been pushing up. It only pushed up to a prior support level, which is also right around the 20MA. Looking at the weekly chart, overall this has been pushing up and it’s basing right now about half-way between it’s 20MA and the top of the BB. I think if anything, I’ll look at this long, but I won’t chase