Equities pushed up to all-time high levels on Friday, but they gapped down a little today and is currently siting down. That said, on the daily chart, there’s a large lower wick and the body is sitting near the top, so that could speak to some strength. Regardless, I’ve already decided that I’m going to take the baskets at face value and not worry about the equity correlation.
USD – N – This showed some strength last week, had a bit of a pullback at the end of the week, and, looking at the 4h chart, has been basing since. It looks like it’s pushing up this morning, but looking at the hourly chart, it’s stalling in the middle of the base right now (and technically, this morning it may have broken the lows). I thought I liked this to the upside, but it actually doesn’t look great right now, so I’ll hold off
CAD – N – looking at the daily chart, there’s a lot of whipsawing happening, and it doesn’t look like a great opportunity. But looking at the 4h chart, things look a bit more orderly. There’s a decent double top that has formed, and price appears to be rallying a bit off of the support area that makes up the bottom of the double-top. All that said, shorting this here would be counter-trend, and since price bounced off of the 50 on the 4h chart, it still looks like it’s in an uptrend, so I’ll hold off
EUR – S/N – This has been pushing down over the last few days, and while there’s a lot of whipsawing that’s happened, there’s a pretty clear retest forming on the 4h/1h charts. I’ll take a look at this to the downside on that retest
GBP – L/N – This broke out of a pretty strong resistance level this morning and took out the highs from back in late February when this initially spiked. It’s currently pulling back now, so that may be the dip needed to buy. I’ll take a look
JPY – N – After some nice up-moves last week, this pulled back on Friday, and is stalling at that prior-resistance-support level. I don’t love this in either direction right now — it looks like a definite reversal move, so I don’t want to short it, but if it is, in fact, dropping, I don’t want to take it long. I’ll hold off for now, but try to keep my eye on where it’s heading this week
Today’s Pairs
EUR/GBP – Short
This is re-testing a base beautifully. I’ll have to pick an entry point (I don’t want it to be the lows of the breakout) and run the numbers, but I like what I see initially
EUR/NZD – Short
This is in a bear rally, and it did take out some support, but looking at the daily chart, this blew above a trend-line and it’s 50 MA. It could be in the midst of a power-reversal, so that gives me pause, but I actually think it has to retest further down before the power reversal is considered…… I’ll run the numbers, I like what I see on the lower time-frames, and overall it is in a downtrend, I’m just not sure if it’s over. If the numbers aren’t there, though, it won’t matter
AUD – N – This is still in that long-term range it’s been in all month. It’s currently sitting in the middle of the range, but is down right now on the 4h chart. I’ll leave this alone for today, maybe see if I can take it to the top of it’s range later today/tomorrow
NZD – L/N – This is pushing up for the second day in a row right now, and looking at the 4h chart, it just took out the resistance area from the base it was in after the drop last week. Also, looking aback to September of last year, that drop stalled at what appears to be a longer-term trendline. I like this, so I’ll take a look to the upside
CHF – N – This is up a bit today, but still well within the longer-term range. I don’t see much conviction so I’ll hold off