Equities gapped down some today, but so far have been trying to recover. This is coming off of a couple of down days, so we’re nowhere near all-time highs, and it’s been recovering for a couple of days, so I don’t think this is pushing down yet. I’ll take the baskets at face value and I’ll actually look to play ranges.
USD – N – This spiked a ton this morning, coming up to the resistance level it created when it first made the “reversal” push up a few weeks ago. That said, price has already stalled below that level, and looking at the hourly/4h charts, it looks extended. Equities are mostly flat, so I’m not sure what the catalyst of this big move was, but I think I’m going to leave this alone for now — This may be double-topping on the daily chart, maybe forming a cup-and-handle on the 4h to the upside (but it’s just finishing the cup), so, yeah, I’ll wait to see how this develops
CAD – N – This was mostly neutral/weak over the last few days after the huge run-up, and almost looked like it was reversing back down to within the range it was in. Today, though, price has been pushing up and it took out one resistance level of a base it was in and is stalling at another, prior-support resistance level. It’s still below breakout levels, and if it reaches those levels it’ll be extended, IMO, so I’ll hold off
EUR – S – This is up a good amount right now, but earlier it was up about double what it is now, it’s just since pulled back. Looking at the 4h chart, this stalled at a resistance are from earlier in March, and has been basing below that level since. Honestly, I want to look at this short if I’m laying ranges, and that’s technically still following the trend on the daily chart and hey, how much worse can I do? I’ll look at this short
Today’s Pairs
EUR/GBP – Short
EUR/AUD – Short
Both of these look like they’re reverting back into a range, which is what I’m looking for, but I don’t see tradable patterns forming quite yet. I’ll keep my eye on both for those to form
GBP – L/N – This is up some on the day, but looking at the daily chart, I already see large upper and lower wicks. Looking at the 4h chart, this is still in a range that it’s been in all month, but appears to be pushing up today. It’s in the middle of the range, stalled at some resistance and looks like a bit of a double-bottom has formed. For all of these reasons, I want to look at this long, but my feeling (nerves, anxiety, or maybe I see something that’s giving me pause, but I can’t put my finger on it) doesn’t. I suppose I’ll take a look at individual charts, but I’ll try not to chase
JPY – N – This spiked a ton this morning, stalling at a resistance level from earlier this month. It’s strong today, but it looks extended. This large of a move makes me nervous about finding a good R:R, so I’ll hold off for today, but maybe by tomorrow morning, it’ll have made a tradable move
AUD – L/N – This is still ranging and doesn’t look like it has much conviction behind it. On the 4h chart, 2 candles in a row have tiny bodies near the top with long lower shadows, suggesting that even when price tried to push down a couple of times, it failed to stay there. It also doesn’t really look like it’s ready to be taken long, as it did have those drops each time it recovered. I think I’ll just hold off here for now. Actually, looking at an hourly chart, and thinking about playing ranges, this looks like it could be a good long opportunity. I’ll take a look, but again, I won’t chase
NZD – N – I’m not sure what happened, but this dropped a TON this morning. It’s now stalled at a support level from back in December/January, and looks incredibly extended. I’ll hold off here, but maybe I’ll hunt for the reason this dropped so drastically
CHF – N – After appearing as though it wanted to break out to the upside (and actually taking out a fairly strong resistance level) it’s reversing strong today back to within that range. I don’t love this, even to the downside — it looks extended, so I’ll hold off