Equities are bouncing a bit today after being down on Thursday and mostly on Friday. Looking at the 4h charts, I see a bear rally, maybe a retest (though there wasn’t a small base it broke out of, so maybe the retest pattern isn’t there, but still), so I’ll lean a bit risk on this morning.
USD – N – This pushed down some early this morning, but since has rallied a bit back up to the open. The highs on the day are at a pretty strong resistance level, and the lows at a support level, so I don’t really see much conviction here. I’ll hold off for this morning
CAD – S/N – This is dropping this morning, and has taken out the lows of the base it formed beginning last Thursday on the 4h chart. There’s a good amount of room for this to fall — in fact, I was looking at this break last week — so I’ll take a look at this short
EUR – N – This is up some on the day, but it’s still within a range it’s been in for about a week and is stalled at the resistance level/prior support level right now. I don’t see this pushing up much further today, so I’ll hold off
GBP – N – This is down some today, but earlier it pushed down much further but has since rallied some. When it pushed down, it stalled at a pretty strong support level that’s held up at least 4 times (with minor breaks), so even if it does push back down, I don’t see it going much further. I think I’ll hold off for today
Today’s Pair
NZD/CAD – Long
This is pushing up to the top of the range on the daily chart, but the range happened after a pretty sizable down-move. That said, if it does break out there might be a lot of room for this to run. On the hourly chart, though, it looks a bit extended and I’m not seeing anything that I can trade, so I’ll hold off and see if anything develops
JPY – N – This is up a bit today, and looking at the 4h chart, it’s making a reversal move. (That’s not to say the next big push up will happen today, but it looks like it’s primed to push up in the near future — that said so has USD in the recent past but hasn’t really been able to do so, so I’ll just keep monitoring and do my best to play the charts in front of me). Today, it started the day up but has since been dropping. It’s still up on the day, but not much. When it did push up, it stalled at some prior support resistance, so I’d need to see this break that area before I really looked at it long. I’ll hold off for today
AUD – N – This is up some today, but it’s already stalled at a level that’s been both support and resistance a couple of times this month. Even if it does push through this level, the next resistance level is pretty close. AUD always makes me nervous when it’s in one of these long-term ranges, and since it’s more in the middle of the range than the top or bottom, I’ll hold off
NZD – L/N – This could be risky, but it’s something I want to look at. On the 4h chart, this is pushing up to the highs of a base, and if it breaks out, it might be a solid long play. There is some choppiness above this level, but the support/resistance levels don’t seem as strong, and price may not stall as easily as it appears they would in AUD. I’ll take a look at this to the long side, but I won’t chase
CHF – N – This is up quite a bit this morning, right at the highs of a range it’s been in for most of this month. This might have a good amount of room to run above that level, except for the fact that it already moved a ton to get to this level. It looks extended on the hourly chart already, so I’ll just hold off here. If it breaks out and retests (reverses), I’ll look at this long, but not today