March 1st. Off to a great start to the month. It’s already after 10 and I’m just now getting to it…. Can’t go back. Opportunities are abound and I often don’t get into trades until after this time, so I shouldn’t keep worrying about it. That said, I do believe my performance would be better, and I’d feel better, if I was working earlier. Can’t beat myself up about it, though, just have to do it. One day at a time.
Equities are up quite a bit this morning across the board, but are stalling a bit at some prior-support resistance. At a glance, it already looks like currencies have moved risk-on, so I’ll lean slightly that way this morning.
USD – N – This looks interesting to me this morning. For the last couple of days of February, this pushed up, but is down a bit today. That said, it’s only down a small amount, and still sitting near the highs of the spike over the last couple of days. Looking at the hourly chart, though, there’s a pretty clear double-top that has formed, and I could definitely see this pushing back down especially if equities are strong over the coming days. Looking at equities, and equity futures, I could see those going in either direction, too, which doesn’t help me make a decision. I’ll come back to this
CAD – L/N – This is up quite a bit this morning, but it’s still well within the longer-term range it’s been in for months. It managed to break above Friday’s high, but not above Thursdays, and has already taken back about 1/4 of it’s gains. Looking at the hourly chart, I can see 1) A double-bottom that’s completing (price is currently pulling back after breaking the resistance level of that) and 2) What could definitely be considered a bull pullback. This would probably be one where I played the full break (depending on what individual charts look like) but I think I’ve talked myself into looking at this long this morning
EUR – S/N – This is down a good amount on the day, and after a couple of days of rallying, appears to be returning to the downside (It pushed through a pretty significant support level this morning, which to me cancels the reversal play). Price is currently basing a bit around the support/prior resistance area, and there’s a good amount of room if this can break that level. I’ll take a look at this to the downside this morning
GBP – N – On one hand, this is quite correlated with EUR, so I could see it pushing down. On the other hand, this has been mostly strong essentially for the entire year so far. Over the last 4 or 5 days, this has maybe made a reversal move, maybe is basing, but since it’s been so strong, I think I’ll hold off today as my outlook would be to short it. Looking at the hourly chart, it’s pushed through some support and is now stalling. Yes, I’ll hold off for this morning and maybe revisit later to see, especially if I don’t like anything else this morning
JPY – S/N- This had a couple of up-days at the end of last week, but appears to be returning to the downside this morning. It’s down a good amount already on the day, but is still sitting near the highs of Friday’s candle. Looking at the hourly chart, it’s pushing down and sitting on another level of support. I’ll take a look at this to the downside on individual charts
AUD – L/N – This dropped a ton last week, and took out a couple of levels of support. Today, though, price is up a good amount and looks like it’s returning to the upside as it did break those resistance levels again (and didn’t stall/drop from there). Know what? Because it did break those resistance levels on the way back up and didn’t stall, I’ll look at this to the upside
NZD – L/N – This is up a decent amount this morning, but had been up about double what it is now. Looking at the 4h chart, it looks like it’s basing at the bottom of a strong down move that happened at the end of last week. Dropping down to an hourly chart, and I see a nice double-bottom that’s formed, and price is currently sitting at that resistance area that would confirm the reversal from the double-bottom. I’ll take a look at this to the long side on individual charts, too
Today’s Pairs
EUR/CAD – Short
CAD/JPY – Long
This had a couple of large drops last Thursday and Friday, and today it’s taken back everything it lost Friday and looks strong. Looking at the 4h/hourly charts, though, I see a good entry point, but I can’t really discern a clear pattern. I think I’ll hold off for right now, maybe come back if I don’t like anything else
EUR/AUD – Short
This looks like it’s returning to the downside, but I would like a bit more of a base to form here as a sign it’s gathering energy. In the meantime, I’ll hold off, but I’ll keep my eye on it for a nice base I can short into
EUR/NZD – Short
This is tough, but ultimately, I think I’m going to leave it alone. It rallied on Thursday and Friday (similar to AUD), but today’s return to the downside doesn’t look as prominent. It is down again today, but it stalled at the resistance level it broke out of, and looks more like a reversal retest. I’ll hold off here for now
AUD/JPY – Long
This looks a lot like AUDs basket and at a glance looks like a decent long play. It appears to be returning to the upside after a couple of down days, and is just stalled at some resistance right now. I’d again like this to base for longer than these last couple of candles, so I won’t do anything now, but this could be a good long in a few hours
NZD/JPY – Long
This almost looks like my best bet, depending on where my target would be. There’s a nice double-bottom on the hourly chart, and it’s been up for a few months on the daily chart. I’ll run the numbers here, but I won’t chase, it’s sitting a bit below my entry point still, so I might just monitor for a bit as well
CHF – N – At a quick glance, I like this to the downside, but I’m already looking at EUR short, which looks better right now, so I think I’m just going to hold off here. Mainly, I don’t want to try to analyze 9 pairs and overwhelm myself. I’ll start with what I have and then visit CHF depending on what I see