Equities closed near the highs yesterday despite being down overall for most of the day, and today they’re down again but haven’t pushed nearly as far as yesterday’s lows. Looking at a 4h chart, price looks like it’s trying to push down, but it’s stalling at that same support level that was resistance a couple of days ago, and which price re-tested yesterday. I’ll lean slight risk-off this morning, but largely take the baskets at face value.
USD – L – I’m going to officially not consider this a counter-trend trade. This has been down overall for almost a year, but has started to almost roll back to the upside. For all of 2021, price hasn’t been able to break one level, and it’s the level price has bounced off of yesterday; and at this point, the MA’s are touching. Looking down at a 4h chart, this pushed up, broke some resistance and is basing at another resistance level. This could push higher if it breaks that level, so I’ll look at this long
CAD – N – This has been in a fairly large range for about 3 months now, and price is currently sitting right in the middle of that range. If I zoom out, it appears that this is overall trending down within this longer, swinging range, so I’m not sure how much further up this will push. I don’t have a lot of faith, so I’ll hold off
EUR – S – This is pushing down this morning, and looking at the daily chart, it’s taken out a fairly major support level (from last July) and stalled at the very next one before rallying. Actually, it didn’t really take out a support level at all, it just stalled at the lows of that area. Even in it’s basket, it looks a bit extended, but if it can break that support level, it might have a lot of room to run. I’ll take a look at individual charts, but I won’t chase
GBP – L – This spiked hard this morning (again) but pulled back fairly quickly. It looks like a bit of a re-test/dip on the hourly chart, so I’ll look at this to the upside on individual charts — maybe I can get in before the highs of the day
JPY – S/N – This had a pretty sizable drop this morning, and looking at the hourly chart, it’s basing now. I’ll take a look at this to the short side.
AUD – N – This is pushing up for the 4th day in a row, but it looks like It’s running out of steam. Yesterday’s candle was a spinning top and today is shaping up to have large wicks as well. Looking at the hourly chart it looks to be largely basing right now. I know AUD is prone to running out of steam fairly quickly, so I’m a bit hesitant to look at this long with the large up candle a few days ago, and then a bunch of small bodied candles after, so I think that’s what I’ll do. I’ll hold off and revisit if it pushes back up
Today’s Pairs
EUR/GBP – Short
Bear rallying on the hourly chart, coming up on some support that could act as an entry point
EUR/NZD – Short
GBP/JPY – Long
I could make a case for both a high base and bull pullback here. I’ll run the numbers to see if it’s worth it
GBP/CHF – Long
Same as above, but doesn’t look like it has as much conviction back to the upside
NZD/JPY – Long
This did/is basing, but it’s not a very strong base. I’ll run numbers here, but I’m not extremely excited about it right now
NZD/CHF – Long
Same as above
NZD – L/N – This broke out pretty strongly this morning, and looking at the hourly chart, is basing. I’ll definitely look at this to the upside this morning
CHF – S/N – This is down a ton on the day, too, and is basing on the 4h charts. It looks extended, but I’ll take a look at individual charts in case there’s opportunity to get in (same as NZD)