Equities looked like they gapped up at the open this morning, but have been largely pushing down since. There’s some indecision, looking at the 4h charts — prices are rallying off the lows right now — so I think I’m going to mostly take the baskets at face value. I’ll keep a risk-off sentiment in the back of my mind.
USD – L/N – This is pushing up today, and over the last 3 days it looks like it’s been in a bit of a base sitting right at the resistance level that held for all of January. It’s right near that resistance area, and looks like it could break out, so I’ll take a look at this to the upside
CAD – N – This dropped quite a bit this morning, and looking at the 4h chart, there was a bit of a spike, but it failed to hold the gains. It’s in a bit of a range on the 4h chart, so I’ll try to keep an eye on this in case it pushes out of the range, but I’ll hold off for now
Today’s Pairs
EUR/USD – Short
USD/CHF – Long
EUR – S/N – This pushed down a good amount this morning, but is on a bit of a rally. Looking at the 4h chart, it looks like a pretty clear bear rally that formed, and it’s not a re-test, so I’ll look for confirmation of a down-move on individual charts
GBP – N – This spiked up this morning, reached new highs, but then dropped pretty far. I see a bull pullback, I’m just worried that the pullback was too deep. Looking all the way down to the hourly chart, it does look like the pullback was too deep, almost to the point where it looked like I wanted to short it. But, price is still fully on an uptrend, so I don’t want to short into that, so I’ll hold off for today
JPY – N – This spiked down last week and took out some pretty major support levels, but pretty quickly rallied almost to that support level and based. Right now, on the 4h chart, it’s in the middle of a pretty strong base, and doesn’t look like there’s much strength in either direction. Plus, looking at this basket, I want to short JPY, but I’d be expecting it to pop if today is a risk-off day, so I’m just going to leave this alone altogether
AUD – N – This is pushing up today, looking at the 4h chart, it had a bit of a pullback and is pushing up a bit again. That said, overall things look like they’re pushing down in AUD (which also makes sense given the risk sentiment) and price is pretty far off of the lows, so I think I’ll hold off here. A re-test might be viable, but it looks like it’s already pushed down from the retest level — I also see a bit of a double-bottom. I’m getting too many conflicting signals here, so I’ll hold off
NZD – N – This is up a good amount today, but this appears to be basing and it’s basing below the breakout area that I’d be more comfortable playing. In addition, the next level of resistance isn’t too far outside of the breakout area anyway, so I’m not sure how much upside this actually has. I’ll leave this alone for this morning and revisit later today or (more likely) tomorrow
CHF – S/N – This has pushed down quite a bit already this morning, and took out some support. The next support level is too close for comfort, but there’s a more-clear bear rally that’s forming on the 4h chart. I want to at least take a look at an individual chart and make my decision from there, so I’ll look at this to the short side